主题：关于中外股市市盈率的比较与不解 -- 豫章花开

贴一个计算市盈率的标准公式，是我上Mergers & Acquisitions的笔记，实在是没时间翻译，对不起了

1) Valuation Methods Based on present Value of Future Dividens

o Value of share is present value of all future dividends

o Basic valuation method uses current dividends as a proxy for future dividends

o Value of a Perpetuity

2) Present Value=A/k A is amount of each installment; K is discount rate or premium rate

3) Value of firm: V=D/k D is dividend

o Example, Acme pays $1 dividend per share. Assuming 8% discount rate the value of a share of Acme V=$1/.08=$12.50

o Dividend and earnings are theoretically the same in these examples (earnings per share)

o This is also the PE (or multiple), here12.5

4)Growing Dividends Formula V=D/k-g where g is a growth factor

o Example Acme pays $1 per share assuming 8% discount rate and 3% growth rate, value of a share of Acme is V=$1/(.08-.03)= $20 per share

5)Growing Dividends then Stability

o Example, Acme pays a $10 div per share yesterday (1/15/04). Div are expected to grow at 36% per year for 2 years, but by 1/15/06 are expected to stabilize at $25 per share indef. Discount rate is 8%. Approx value per share on 1/16/04. Show how to work through to answer this question-combine formula, determine present value.

ANSWER—1) determine amount of dividends:

o 1/15/04: $10X1.36=$13.60

o 1/15/05: $13.60X1.36= $18.50

o 1/15/06 and every other year: $25

o so value on 1/15/06 is $25/.08= $312.50

o Then, get value of each div on 1/16/03

(a) $13.60/(1+.08)= $12.59

(b) $18.50/(1.08X1.08)= $15.86

(c) $312.50/(1.08X1.08X1.08)=248.07

o Them sum (12.59 + 15.86+ 248.07=$276.52) to get the approx value per share on 1/16/03

NEVER assume growth rate beyond discount rate indeffinately, this would give infinite value