主题：【原创】美元王者归来？七年是否一轮回 -- 百年

说两点: 次级房贷, 市场

1. 次级房贷

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FRE Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae: Markets questioning whether it makes sense to keep pouring funds into these two entities - Ladenburg Thalmann (3.21 -0.04)

Ladenburg Thalmann says that FNM and FRE are faced with a constant need to refinance their existing debt. Additionally, both cos have a mandate to keep increasing the size of this debt to aid the housing industry. The amounts of money that are in question are almost as large as the debt of the U.S. government. The two firms have approx $1.5 trn in direct debt; guarantees on what could be as large as $5 trn; and possibly off-balance sheet obligations that could reach $3 trl. The markets are now questioning whether it makes sense to keep pouring funds into the two entities for a number of reasons. Firm says it is almost bizarre that these two cos with their records of mismanagement are not only allowed to exist but are being viewed by the government as the potential saviors of the American housing industry. A clear risk is growing that if the Federal government does not provide an explicit guarantee, the markets will not provide the requisite funds. However, the Federal government may not be able to make this guarantee for more than a very short period. By taking on the responsibilities of these two companies, the United States will double its financial obligations.

2. 市场

市场经济在本质上至少有两条

1)。 机会最大限度公平， 利益问题

2)。 信息处理问题

市场经济非线性， 模糊现象， 它的"规律” 不是那些个人或集团等够"必然”认识和掌握的。

市场本质上是大家摸象， 当然经常的是， 明星们摸得准一些， 明星们轮流， 走马灯。

这次次贷以及信用危机， bill gross of PIMCO, stephen of MS, 两人摸的准一些; 大概2005, 2006年开始喊狼来了。

他们的公司都受益不少, 当然也没有全听， 否则少赚2-3年的牛市钱.

3. 国营公司一般都比较骄傲

国营公司不能没有， 利益再分配， 行政手段;

国营公司一般都比较骄傲

不能没有， 利益再分配， 行政手段

国营公司皇帝女儿不愁嫁， 往往最后人老珠黄， 太骄傲， 在市场面前。

市场面前， 还是要夹着尾巴做人， 办法， 老邓说过， 不要出头要坐车 （"改良"版）， 车就是老师， 老师差不多天天换， 短期交易而言。

找老师， 毛主席的办法是学习， 实践， 再学习.