主题：10/01/2008 Market View -- 宁子

THE PLAYS:

Upside: Looks as if there is still more upside on the prospects of a new vote on the bailout. Looking at some solid upside plays that are in good bases, holding up all along.

Play Date: 09/30/2008

IWM (Ishares Russell 2000 ETF--$68.00; +3.00; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwm.html

STATUS: Rolling. Held at the January, March, and July lows on the gutting last week, turning up Tuesday. Once more it is the rebound in its range. Looking to move in and ride it on up to the penultimate resistance in the 9 month range; if it still looks strong we can take some off the table there and see if it makes it to 76. Well that is getting ahead of ourselves on this one. In any event, it is hard to ignore the well defined trading range.

Volume: 108.273M Avg Volume: 119.974M

BUY POINT: $68.21 Volume=150M Target=$73.88 Stop=$67.11

POSITION: IQQ LP - Dec. $68c (51 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/iwm.html

Play Date: 09/30/2008

PHHM (Palm Harbor Homes--$9.91; +0.16; no options): Manufactured housing

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phhm.html

EARNINGS: Mid-October

STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Spending the past six weeks forming a double bottom with handle over the 50 day EMA (8.80). This pattern is the handle to a much larger 11 month base of the same name. Big break higher Friday then a quick test back to near support at the 18 day EMA (9.54), looking very solid there. Waiting for the next surge to give us a buy. Not a ton of volume but it is under accumulation and it can run very nicely when it gets going and make us a very nice gain. This sector is forming up very nicely.

Volume: 97.575K Avg Volume: 134.583K

BUY POINT: $10.55 Volume=250K Target=$13.75 Stop=$9.81

POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/phhm.html

Play Date: 09/30/2008

USB (US Bancorp--$36.02; +3.27; optionable): Midwest banks

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usb.html

EARNINGS: 10-21-08

STATUS: A big pattern spanning just over a year and one-half, USB is one of the banks that has held up very well. It made a sharp dip in the summer but rebounded just as quickly. Moved laterally and then broke higher this month, showing good volume ahead of the bailout news, so there was buying ongoing ahead of the bailout and you can see the strong money flow leading higher even as USB moves laterally the past week. Looking for USB to make the breakout move and follow the money.

Volume: 24.104M Avg Volume: 25.903M

BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=30M Target=$42.75 Stop=$34.31

POSITION: USB AG - Jan. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/usb.html

Downside:

Play Date: 09/30/2008

DUG (Oil & Gas Ultrashort ETF--$38.85; -3.73; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dug.html

STATUS: Oil was up Tuesday but that was after a bludgeoning Monday. Oil has cracked on worries about the world economies. Now a bailout plan by the US may impact oil's pricing short term, but it has been rather immune to what the US bailout was doing, focusing instead on weak economic reports from the rest of the globe. Thus after this relief bounce we are looking for oil to fall and move toward a key test at 85. DUG will move higher as oil moves lower.

Volume: 12.71M Avg Volume: 23.102M

BUY POINT: $39.22 Volume=25M Target=$43.97 Stop=$37.89

POSITION: DUG KM - Nove. $39c (59 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dug.html

Play Date: 09/30/2008

SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$115.99; +4.61; optionable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html

STATUS: Put. Getting out in front of the curve on this one, but want to be ready as the vote for bailout seems to have a lot of twists and turns. Expecting a bounce up to 120 (1200 on SP500) and we will see how that acts as resistance. If things fall apart on a bailout then that is a logical place to fail. Indeed even if the bailout is passed that may stymie SP500 though a bailout 'yes' vote likely will push it up toward 1250. In any event we will be ready either way.

Volume: 329.028M Avg Volume: 298.18M

BUY POINT: $119.78 Volume=320M Target=$115.11 Stop=$120.88

POSITION: SPY WP - Nov. $120p

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html