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主题：【讨论】美国7000亿救市计划的缺陷和这次金融危机的深化 -- 厚积薄发

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复 【讨论】美国7000亿救市计划的缺陷和这次金融危机的深化
家园 【原创译文】解决这次金融危机的一个十步方案 I

厚积薄发兄你好，很感动于你写文章的态度，总希望能帮上点儿忙，但是能力有限所以也没有什么能做的，今天看完你转的那篇：解决这次金融危机的一个十步方案的文章，觉得很好，就尝试自己翻译，但因为经济和金融都不是我的专业，也不是我所擅长的，同时英语也不是我的强项，加上时间仓促，译文中的纰漏疏失一定很多，希望您和熟悉这些话题的朋友能够给予指正，先在这里致谢了。

首先感谢小试牛刀兄帮助我纠正了文中基础错误，并给与了详细的说明，也帮助了我更好地理解原文。小试牛刀:我来作点贡献。

译文如下：

HOME（房屋业主抵押贷款方案）：十个步骤的金融危机解决计划

HOME (Home Owners’ Mortgage Enterprise): A 10 Step Plan to Resolve the Financial Crisis

努 鲁比尼 | 2008年9月24日

Nouriel Roubini | Sep 24, 2008

即便能够顺利而高效地执行财政部的救市计划（TARP指美国财政部提出的问题资产拯救计划Troubled Asset Relief Program），美国仍将不可避免地面对严重的金融危机并进入一个为期18个月U型的衰退期：经济的衰退从第一季度就已经开始了，无论财政部和联储如何施展拳脚，严重的金融危机都在所难免。针对这样的情况，妥善的拯救计划应该立足于如何避免让美国经济进入一个L型的长时间的衰退，避免出现像日本在上个世纪九十年代所经历的房地产泡沫破裂之后的经济危机和长达十余年的经济停滞。

Even if the Treasury TARP plan is implemented fairly and efficiently the US will not avoid a severe U-shaped18-month recession and a severe financial and banking crisis: the recession train has already left the station in Q1 and the financial/banking crisis will be severe regardless of what the Treasury and the Fed do from now on. What a proper rescue plan can do is to avoid having the US experience a multi-year L-shaped recession and extreme financial crisis like the one that led to a decade long stagnation in Japan in the 1990s after the bursting of their real estate and equity bubbles.

我认为，仅仅把那些问题资产从金融机构的资产负债表中拿掉（新的RTC【1】），对于解决这场金融危机来说是远远不够的；同时必须通过一个类似1933年大萧条时采用的组建HOLC（Home Owner's Loan Corporation【2】）的方式，大量消减数百万面临破产的贷款购屋家庭的抵押贷款债务；并通过以公共资本持有优先股的方式对资本不足的金融机构进行资本重组（如大萧条时期RFC【3】为4000多家银行提供帮助一样）。一个新的RTC【1】组织中如果没有HOLC【2】和RFC【3】这样的功能模块，那么有两个非常基本的问题将无法解决：以百万计面临破产的家庭无法继续偿还他们的按揭贷款；金融机构资本短缺，可能面临严重的信贷紧缩，迫切需要资本注入以刺激信贷增长。

I have also argued that, in order to resolve this financial crisis it is not enough to take the bad/toxic assets off the balance sheet of the financial institutions (a new RTC); it is also necessary and fundamental to reduce the debt overhang of millions of insolvent households via a significant debt reduction on their mortgages (an HOLC program like the one that was implement during the Great Depression); and also recapitalize undercapitalized banks with public capital in the form of preferred shares (as the RFC did with 4000 banks during the Great Depression). An RTC scheme without an HOLC and RFC component would not resolve two fundamental problems: millions of households are insolvent and unable to service their mortgages; the financial system is vastly undercapitalized and needs capital to avoid an ugly credit crunch and to foster new credit creation that is needed for future growth.

因此我提议采用一个由RTC，HOLC，RFC共同组成的方案：HOME（房屋业主抵押贷款方案）。下面我将会列出方案的关键点，充实我的提案，并与财政部提出的TARP方案的现状进行比较。

That is why I proposed the creation of a HOME (Home Owners’ Mortgage Enterprise) that would be a combination of an RTC, a HOLC and a RFC. Let me flesh out this proposal and its key elements and compare it to the Treasury TARP proposal that in its current form has many flaws.

我的HOME提案共有10个步骤来解决这次严重的金融危机：第一步，和财政部的救市计划一样，买入金融机构的那些问题资产，从资产负债表上将之清除，以此为金融机构注入流动性，促进信贷增长。这里最大的问题，在伯南克和国会议员们在昨天的辩论中也提到，是如何为这些问题资产正确估价定价，以便政府可以以合理的价格买入这些资产（80年代RTC的类似操作没有碰到同样的问题是因为当时RTC处理的是Savings and Loan Associations【4】危机中的资产）；假如政府以过高的价格（相对于面值只有很小的折扣）收购这些资产，就会造成过大的财政开支，同时银行家们和股东们却拿到了过多的补贴；假如政府以过低的价格收购这些资产固然可以减少眼前的财政开支，但很多银行又会因此而倒闭，而到那时政府可能要用更大的财政开支来拯救那些倒闭银行的储户们。关于这些问题资产的定价应该是基于目前的市场价格还是到期价格（伯南克的建议）的争议可以无休止地进行下去，但实际上在目前为这些问题资产的长期价值进行估价是不可能完成的任务，因此，我们只有一种选择来应对这种不确定性：避免政府溢价过高收购问题资产，而让政府拥有一些在拯救计划实施之后，价值会有所提升的银行其他利益，比如，让政府在所收购的银行中占有一定的股份。这一点我们将在第二步中展开。

There are 10 steps in this HOME proposal to resolve this most severe financial crisis. Here they are:

First, like in the Treasury TARP plan you need to buy illiquid/toxic assets and take them off the balance sheet of banks and financial institutions to reliquify them and allow new credit creation. The biggest problem here – as the debate between Bernanke and senators yesterday is one of the proper valuation and the proper price at which the government should buy these assets (the RTC did not have this problem as it was working out assets of failed S&Ls): if the government buys the asset at at price that is too high (too small of discount relative to face value) the fiscal cost will be huge and you massively subsidize reckless bankers and their shareholders. If you buy at a discount that is too high you minimize the fiscal cost in the short run but many banks could go bust and the eventual fiscal cost of bailing out the depositors of failed banks could be large. You can debate endlessly whether such assets should be bought at current market price or at prices closer to hold to maturity values (as Bernanke suggested). Given that these assets are impaired pricing the long run value of them is mission impossible. Thus, there is only one solution to this fundamental uncertainty: avoid the government overpaying by having the government having some of the positive benefits of an upside gain in case the banks’ values recover after the bailout. I.e. you need for the government to have some equity in the banks whose assets are purchased by the government. This leads to step 2 of the proposal.

第二，政府不是去收购那些问题资产（无论以何种价格成交）本身，而是去买入金融机构的优先股，这些优先股比现有的普通股和优先股有更高的优先权，并且能够在未来转换成普通股以便政府可以在未来的盈利中获益。

Second, in exchange for the purchase of illiquid asset (at whatever price it is agreed) the government gets preferred shares in the financial institutions that senior to existing common and preferred shares and that are convertible into common shares to allow government to participate into any future upside.

第三，即便政府通过购买优先股的方式为金融机构注入了一部分资本，但是对于资本缺乏的银行，同时还需要对资产中卖给政府的部分进行资产减记，他们还需要更多的资本注入。而这些资本将通过更多的公共资本以优先股的形式注入（大萧条时期的RFC就是这么干的）。

Third, even if the government gets preferred shares as in step 2, the banks will need more capital if they are undercapitalized and they have not fully reserved/provisioned for the losses coming from writing down the asset being sold to the government. So you will need to inject further actual public capital in the form of preferred shares in the financial institutions ( this is what the RFC did during the Great Depression).

因为字数的限制，分成两贴来发。

注释：

【1】RTC：Resolution Trust Corporation（资产清理信托公司）这是美国政府拥有的一家资产管理公司，主要是为了应对上个世纪八十年代美国的金融危机而成立的。

【2】HOLC：Home Owners' Loan Corporation（房屋业主贷款机构）这是1933年大萧条期间罗斯福总统倡导成立的一家负责为家庭房屋抵押贷款减免债务的机构，当年为解决大萧条时期的经济危机做出过重要贡献。

【3】RFC： Reconstruction Finance Corporation（复兴金融财团）这是1932年大萧条时期由美国政府建立的一家独立机构，负责向银行企业提供贷款，在大萧条时期为经济复兴做出了重要贡献。

【4】Savings and Loan Associations（储蓄贷款协会）

原文链接 原文加了密码，西西河的兄弟应该都能猜到密码，不是拼音，一共7个字符。

zlusc:【原创译文】解决这次金融危机的一个十步方案 II

zlusc:【原创译文】解决这次金融危机的一个十步方案 III

关键词(Tags): #金融危机，#救市计划，#鲁比尼，

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