主题：1/8/2009 Market View -- 宁子

THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 42.56; -0.83

VXN: 43.23; -0.29

VXO: 41.96; -1.79

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; -0.07. Two days above 1.0 on the close. As soon as the selling started the put activity jumped. Good indication of overly negative sentiment on this short bout of selling.

NASDAQ

Stats: +17.95 points (+1.12%) to close at 1617.01

Volume: 1.997B (-2.8%). Volume slipped below average on the gap lower and recovery to a gain. Noncommittal, but with this test that is what you want as it sets up for a new bounce.

Up Volume: 1.393B (+919.99M)

Down Volume: 606.613M (-965.852M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.49 to 1

Previous Session: Decliners led 2.83 to 1

New Highs: 16 (+7)

New Lows: 13 (-1)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ recovered the 50 day EMA (1610) though the rebound was on low volume so it was not a decisive move. Nonetheless it was what NASDAQ needed to do, i.e. hold support at the 10 day EMA as well as the December peaks and bounced. Not much of a bounced, but again, it held support and put itself in position for a higher low and a higher high as this steady move off the lows continues.

SOX (-0.59%) showed some great action as well, selling below the 50 day EMA on the low and then rebounding to close over that level and at the December peaks. Nice doji with tail on the candlestick chart, and after a pullback that indicates an index or stock is ready for a change in direction. All it needs is the go ahead after the jobs report.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: +3.08 points (+0.34%) to close at 909.73

NYSE Volume: 1.196B (-2.98%). Volume remains below average and it was lower as well on this session. At least it is lower as the indices tested even if it never did reach average on the move higher. Some volume on a rebound off of this test would be telling.

Up Volume: 749.387M (+604.232M)

Down Volume: 429.657M (-653.331M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.67 to 1

Previous Session: Decliners led 4.6 to 1

New Highs: 30 (+1)

New Lows: 55 (-3)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

The large caps held steady after testing down to the 18 day EMA (898) on the low. A nice rebound, showing a doji on the candlestick chart just as with the SOX. It has made the test and is in position to put in a higher low and continue the rally. As with the other indices, it just needs a trigger.

SP600 (+0.52%) sold lower, tapped at the December peak, and recovered to close over the 50 day EMA. Another doji with tail on the candlestick chart that shows the index is of the right mind to turn back up. It has the best pattern of all, having held easily over the December peak.

SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG

SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg

DJ30

The blue chips are still below the 50 day EMA (8864) as well as the December highs, but at least it is showing the same kind of action. In short, a rather decent and orderly pullback that ahs it in position to bounce once more. The Dow is more of a follower right now, and as noted Wednesday, that is okay for now.

Stats: -27.24 points (-0.31%) to close at 8742.46

VOLUME: 226M shares Thursday versus 266M shares Wednesday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg