主题：日本政府背水一战 -- macau11

Lex专栏：日本政府背水一战

英国《金融时报》Lex专栏 2009-02-26

全球各地的政府都在扮演终极买家的角色。已投入大批专项资金支持各类私人部门实体的日本，如今正考虑买入股票的计划。这可谓绝望之时的拼死之举。以东证指数(Topix)衡量，日本股市已跌至26年低点。甚至连通常都很坚定的外国投资者，每周也在净卖出约35亿美元的日本股票。但是，这个全球负债最高的富国真应该将没人要的股票塞进国家的资产负债表吗？按照米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的观点，答案当然是否定的。这位诺贝尔经济学奖得主曾将香港政府1998年大肆购入股票称作是“疯狂的主意”。

然而，香港用事实证明弗里德曼的判断是错误的。它击退了投机者，潇洒退场，其间还赚了一笔。香港政府在市场投入150亿美元，相当于当时30天的成交额。按照日本1月份的成交水平，要达到香港当时的（干预）规模，日本将需要投入约4500亿美元。香港还利用买股票赢得的时间提高了防御能力。它加强了支持盯住美元的“货币局”(currency board)制度，增加了银行体系的流动性，严格了股市规则。

相比之下，没有任何迹象表明日本计划改善投资环境。同样，人们也不清楚政府将如何为购买股票融资（虽然它或许还只会发行更多债券而已）。日本央行已动用110亿美元来购买银行所持股票，这本身就是在重复本世纪初的做法。日本政府可能还会恢复曾在上世纪60年代中期设立过的股票买入机构。该机构当初的确取得了一些成功，但市场环境已完全不同——当年的日本是一个增长迅速的经济体。东证指数昨天下跌0.7%，这表明投资者认为，购买股票的计划要么无法落实，要么起不到作用——这是一个无情的评估，但完全合理。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。

译者/力文

http://www.ftchinese.com/story.php?storyid=001024907

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Governments everywhere are acting as buyers of last resort. Japan, having earmarked a slew of funds to prop up various private sector entities, is now mulling plans to buy shares. Desperate times, desperate measures. Measured by the broad Topix index, the market is at 26-year lows. Even foreigners, those habitual stalwarts, are selling a net $3.5bn or so a week. But should the world's most indebted rich country really be saddling the sovereign balance sheet with equity no one else wants? Certainly not according to Milton Friedman, who dubbed Hong Kong's 1998 share-buying spree a “crazy idea”.

Yet Hong Kong proved the Nobel prize-winning economist wrong by burning speculators, exiting elegantly and making a mint in the process. The government steamed into the market with a $15bn cheque, equivalent to 30 days' turnover at then-prevailing levels. To match that today, based on January's turnover, Japan would need to spend about $450bn. Hong Kong also used the time it bought to bolster its defences. It beefed up the currency board backing the peg to the US dollar, increased liquidity in the banking system and tightened stock market rules.

Japan, by contrast, has given no clue that it has a plan to improve the investment environment. Nor is it clear how the government would fund these purchases (although it would presumably just issue more bonds). The Bank of Japan has already earmarked $11bn to buy shares held by banks, itself a repeat of operations launched earlier in the decade. Tokyo could also resurrect the share-buying agency it set up in the mid-1960s. That body claimed some success, but the dynamics were completely different – Japan back then was a fast-growing economy. The Topix's 0.7 per cent slide yesterday suggests investors believe the share buying will either fail to materialise or fail to work – a brutal but perfectly reasonable assessment.

http://www.ftchinese.com/story.php?lang=en&storyid=001024907