主题：03/19/2009 Market View -- 宁子

No schedule economic reports Friday, just expiration. After a week full of some pretty big news expiration may seem kind of quiet. A lot of trades were closed and rolled Wednesday afternoon, but with the Fed showing more audacity in fighting the decession Friday could see quite a bit of action as positions are adjusted again thanks to the Fed.

But for the Fed's intervention Wednesday, the patterns seen on DJ30, SP500 and IWM would beg a short for Monday. A 20% run higher on SP500 and a couple of bumps into key resistance. Without the Fed bid there would be penalty flags thrown for piling on the downside.

That doesn't mean we won't look at moving into those downside positions if the opportunity arises; even with a 'routine' pullback to logical support we can make some good money. Just means we also have to be ready for quick turns. We may just take some positions to the downside as good risk/reward plays given the test of resistance and the good stop loss point/firewall the resistance represents. Then if we get a gap lower Monday as the sellers take their shot we can get some quick gain to bank as the market pulls back to set up some more upside.

The market is still trying to figure out just what the Fed action means. The dollar, oil, gold and other commodities have their take on it. The other sectors such as financials, tech and chips still have to get a grip on it. Expecting more testing as they do, but as noted, they were ripe for a test anyway so we watch how the test evolves and if volume is under control and support holds. If that is the case we look for a rebound after testing support such as the November low for SP500.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1483.48

Resistance:

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low. Cracking but not broken

The 90 day SMA at 1493

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1666 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

The 50 day SMA at 1467

1460 is the February low

The 50 day EMA at 1461

1434 is the January low (1440.86 closing)

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

The 18 day EMA at 1417

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 784.04

Resistance:

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day SMA is at 801 tapped on the Wednesday high and again Thursday.

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 90 day SMA at 834

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

768 is the 2002 bear market low

The 18 day EMA at 755

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7400.80

Resistance:

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

The 50 day EMA at 7621

7694 is the February intraday low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7867 is the early February low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7909 is the early January low

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The 90 day SMA at 8088

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

The 18 day EMA at 7213

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

March 16 - Monday

March Empire Manufacturing (8:30): -38.23 actual versusl -32.0 expected, -34.65 prior

Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January (9:00): -43B actual versus $34.8B prior

Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 70.9% actual versus 71.1% expected, 71.9% prior (revised from 72.0%)

Industrial Production, February (9:15): -1.4% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.9% prior, revised from -1.8%

March 17 - Tuesday

February Building Permits (8:30): 547K actual versus 500K expected, 531K prior

Housing Starts, February (8:30): 583K actual versus 450K expected, 477K prior

Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior

PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.8% prior

March 18 - Wednesday

February Core CPI (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

CPI, February (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior

Current Account Balance, Q4 (8:30): -$132.8B actual versus -$136.7B expected, -$1.81.3B prior

Crude Oil Inventories, 03/13 (10:30): +2M actual versus +749K prior

FOMC Rate Decision (14:15): No change in rates, big facilities announced.

March 19 - Thursday

03/14 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 646K actual versus 655k expected, 658K prior (revised from 654K)

Leading Indicators, February (10:00): -0.4% actual versus -0.6% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.4%)

Philadelphia Fed, March (10:00): -35.0 actual versus -30.0 expected, -41.3 prior