主题：04/02/2009 Market View -- 宁子

FRIDAY

It's that time of the month, the first Friday and the jobs report. Always anticipated, always ballyhooed, but always lagging despite attempts each month to try and turn it into something it is not. Consumers turn despondent when they fear they are going to lose their job. That sends us into recession long before the actual job losses. The economy starts to recover long before jobs recover. How can that be say some in Congress? They think that the economy cannot recover until jobs recover because consumers won't spend if they don't have a job and thus the economy cannot work its way out of the hole. That is why they believe in paying people to dig and fill holes as some sort of economic stimulus. You get a wage, you spend the wage, the economy recovers.

Putting aside the historical, empirical evidence to the contrary, the hypothesis fails even the common sense test. If the economy does not recover until those without jobs start getting jobs, what is the impetus for the new jobs in the first place? In other words, how are the unemployed going to get jobs UNTIL the economy starts recovering and subsequently CREATES new jobs? That is why the stimulus that history proves works is the stimulus that provides incentives for businesses to invest in their businesses and individuals to create new businesses and thus create new products and services that require new workers. Jobs are created and the unemployed are employed. THEN they have jobs with futures that will grow versus bogus make work such as building Frisbee parks and otherwise creating public 'things' that don't create jobs themselves. How something so simple gets so twisted in the halls of Congress only goes to show how Congress is motivated by personal agendas and power versus what really works for the country.

So, the jobs report will garner interest for those with backward economic understanding (or lack thereof), those seeking to gain political advantage, and basically morons. What is more important to us is that the market has rallied off the lows, held the initial move, and is breaking higher again. That suggests the market anticipates some sort of economic recovery. We don't think it can be that strong given the policies out of Washington, but if the credit issues are getting resolved that at least allows the bleeding to stop and some recovery. Just as in the 1970's, the market can have nice rallies even in the midst of the malaise, running up then selling back down, trading in a range for a long time.

What we are looking for is a negative enough number to knock back some of those stocks that gapped away from us on Thursday as the market gapped up. A nice quick test will give us an entry point, but we also need to be patient and wait for them to come to us and the test to complete and then move in.

There will be items at odds with one another, however, as RIMM reported earnings after hours that jumped it up another 10 points in post-bell trade. We will see how that excitement holds over, and if stocks open higher again it still won't be something you want to chase. Again, we will be patient and let plays come back to us. Now there are always stocks in position to buy, but we have to factor in as well the run and the resistance the indices are at (yet again), as well as the earnings season. The latter can break either way; as seen with RIMM, expectations for this earnings season are so low that if a company can post some pretty solid numbers it can be rewarded. Still, we have a good run to this point, have taken quite a bit of gain, and with that run you wonder just how much more upside stocks can squeeze out on some more good news.

In sum, we will take what the market gives when it arises. If we get leaders that surged pulling back we can move into them. If there are stocks that have set up but have not broken out, i.e. a new wave of leaders setting up, we can buy into them when they move higher as well. Again, we will take what the market gives.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1602.63

Resistance:

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The January closing low at 1653

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

The 10 day EMA at 1533

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

The 50 day EMA at 1487

The 50 day SMA at 1468

1440 is the January 2009 closing low

1434 is the January intraday low

1428 is the mid-November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1316 is the November 2008 closing low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday

1262 from July 2002

1192 is the July 2002 intraday low

1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low

S&P 500: Closed at 834.38

Resistance:

833 is the March 2009 peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

The 90 day SMA at 828

818 is the early November 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

The 10 day EMA at 805

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

The 50 day EMA at 799

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

722 is a December 1996 low

681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing

665 from August 1996

656-654 from January, April 1996

607-05 from November 1995

Dow: Closed at 7978.08

Resistance:

The 90 day SMA at 8006

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

The 10 day EMA at 7677

The 50 day EMA at 7651

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

The 18 day EMA at 7511

7449 is the November 2008 intraday low

7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.

7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market

7115 is the February 2009 closing low

7008 from February 1997 closing peak

6528 is the November 1996 peak

6489 from December 1996 closing peak

6356 is the April 1997 intraday low