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主题:04/03/2009 Market View -- 宁子
Friday did not give us the test of the Thursday gap move and with the market gains on the day many stocks we were looking at just before the Thursday gap remain out of reach. Why out of reach? Because chasing the bus at this level is a lower probability play. It is a play without a really good edge. It is trying to beat the train across the tracks.
Now that does not mean there are not very good stocks still in position to move higher. That is why we were looking at DRIV for example on Friday. While many stocks have rallied other good stocks have been consolidating previous upside moves and are ready to run higher. As noted earlier, they can keep the market moving if enough of them advance. There are still quite a few of those but there are also quite a few that are a bit too extended to chase right now. Not necessarily so extended the entire market has to correct back; there can always be rotation by stocks and sectors, and indeed that is the healthiest of all market action. When groups of leaders take turns taking the point similar to a breakaway working together in a bike race good moves can be made.
So we are going to keep looking for prime upside plays ready to move. We are also going to look for tests of breakouts. Some of the stocks that broke higher Wednesday shot to the upside and Friday were testing back some. A quick test by these stocks often sets up another surge so we will be looking at those in the light of getting a pullback early in the week and moving in on the bounce.
As seen Friday, there are also downside opportunities even as the market rallied. If the market runs out of gas prematurely on this attempt at a second upside leg off the March low that is a signal of weakness. That means the financials and some other stocks are going to head lower and we have to see what kind of test they make. We are trolling for stocks ripe to turn lower such as GENZ and MCK in the event this upside move just doesn't quite cut it.
It was a good week and we banked a lot of gain, still letting good positions run higher, and picking up other good positions as the opportunity arose. We had to avoid taking everything off the table because even as we bank gain on the way up we also let at least a part of our winners run higher to keep logging gains as long as the move holds its ground. That way we have some solid gain in the bank and can get in on the really bigger runs without feeling the need to sell out altogether and miss out on the really strong moves.
The key now, as always, is to be patient and let the plays set up and try to avoid chasing that bus. Better to jump out and ambush the position as it initiates its move. So, we keep our eyes on leaders and look for opportunities to get in as they test or set up new solid bases and buy points.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1621.87
Resistance:
1620 from the early 2001 low
1644 from August 2003
The January closing low at 1653
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
The 10 day EMA at 1549
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 50 day EMA at 1492
The 50 day SMA at 1471
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
1434 is the January intraday low
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 842.50
Resistance:
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
839 is the early October 2008 low
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 90 day SMA at 828
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
The 10 day EMA at 811
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
The 50 day EMA at 800
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 8017.59
Resistance:
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
The 90 day SMA at 8006
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
The 10 day EMA at 7739
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 7666
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
The 18 day EMA at 7511
7449 is the November 2008 intraday low
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 7 - Tuesday
February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$1.5B expected, $1.8B prior
April 8 - Wednesday
February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior
Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +2.84M prior
April 9 - Thursday
March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 699K prior
Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior
April 10 - Friday
March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂04/03/2009 Market View 1 宁子 字6813 2009-04-04 09:33:00
🙂THE ECONOMY 宁子 字4995 2009-04-04 09:33:35
🙂THE MARKET 1 宁子 字7823 2009-04-04 09:34:05
🙂MONDAY
🙂THE PLAYS 1 宁子 字4595 2009-04-04 09:35:49