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主题:04/08/2009 Market View -- 宁子
Some more economic reporting with weekly jobless claims, import/export prices, and the trade balance. Will they mean a whole lot? Not likely right ahead of Good Friday. On the other hand there will be light volume, and as seen Wednesday, that allows the few buyers and sellers to push the indices all around. The nice thing is that the leaders moved up well despite the volatility and we can get another nice move from them Thursday and perhaps into next week ahead of the big flood of earnings.
The questions we need to ask are the following. First, do we want to buy in on a further move upside ahead of a 3-day weekend? We added to some positions Wednesday on PCLN and NVLS. Some here in the room added some BRCM and others in their own accounts. We will likely see some more on Thursday as some of those leaders that have pulled back are ready to move again, e.g. WFR and TSM, as well as new plays such as NETL, ANF and others.
There are plenty of set ups out there; you just have to decide how many you want to get in here ahead of a holiday (if they show the move) and ahead of earnings. We like to try and get plays that don't have earnings themselves for awhile, i.e. they have already announced in February or March or don't announce until the end of April or on into May or June. There is definitely some upside momentum here with the leaders even with the light volume. Again, what we are looking at here is a continuing rise into earnings even if volume is light. We will ride it with our current positions and some choice new positions knowing that we will be happy with a shorter run given earnings season can turn the market further up or stall the move.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1590.66
Resistance:
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1623 is the April peak
1644 from August 2003
The January closing low at 1653
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
The 10 day EMA at 1565
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
The 50 day EMA at 1503
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 50 day SMA at 1476
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
1434 is the January intraday low
1428 is the mid-November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1316 is the November 2008 closing low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1271 from is the March 2003 low, 1253 intraday
1262 from July 2002
1192 is the July 2002 intraday low
1114 is the October 2002 low, the bear market low
S&P 500: Closed at 825.16
Resistance:
The 90 day SMA at 827
833 is the March 2009 peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
846 is the April peak
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
818 is the early November 2008 low
The 10 day EMA at 818
815 is the early December 2008 low
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
The 50 day EMA at 804
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
722 is a December 1996 low
681 is the June 1996 intraday peak, 673-71 closing
665 from August 1996
656-654 from January, April 1996
607-05 from November 1995
Dow: Closed at 7837.11
Resistance:
7867 is the early February low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7909 is the early January low
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 90 day SMA at 7983
The April peak at 8076
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 7793
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 7689
The 18 day EMA at 7680
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 intraday low
7282 is the October 2002 closing low in the prior bear market.
7197 is the intraday low from October 2002 bear market
7115 is the February 2009 closing low
7008 from February 1997 closing peak
6528 is the November 1996 peak
6489 from December 1996 closing peak
6356 is the April 1997 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 7 - Tuesday
February Consumer Credit (14:00): -$7.5B actual versus -$1.5B expected, $8.1B prior (revised from $1.8B)
April 8 - Wednesday
February Wholesale Inventories (10:00): -1.5% actual versus -0.6% expected, -0.7% prior (revised from -0.9%)
Crude Oil Inventories, 04/03 (10:30): +1.65M actual, +2.84M prior
April 9 - Thursday
March Export Prices ex-aq. (8:30): 0.1% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.6% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 04/04 (8:30): 669K prior
Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$36.5B expected, -$36.0B prior
April 10 - Friday
March Treasury Budget (14:00): -$157.0B expected, -$48.2B prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂04/08/2009 Market View 1 宁子 字5525 2009-04-08 20:05:00
🙂THE ECONOMY 宁子 字1627 2009-04-08 20:05:29
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字6255 2009-04-08 20:05:57
🙂THURSDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 宁子 字5118 2009-04-08 22:05:20