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主题:04/13/2009 Market View -- 宁子
GS was the news after hours with its early earnings release that crushed expectations at $3.39 versus $1.60. The problem for GS was the $5B stock offering; that is a big wad of new stock and the dilutive effect may have been what was holding GS down a couple of clicks after hours.
There is a lot of talk on the financial stations about the upside running out of steam. It may be the case as DJ30 is not a picture of strength, but there are other indices that are very solid, e.g. SOX, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100. SP500 even looks pretty good despite the resistance. It has a lot of overhead to deal with but perhaps GS can give the financials another reason to rally, and if the techs and chips get back in we get another nice run.
That is what we of course want to see on into the next week or so of earnings season as it gives our positions a nice ramp higher and we can use that to lighten up as the earnings news gets saturated and unable to push stocks higher in the event they remain positive as they have been thus far (RIMM, WFC, BBBY, and now GS).
The big issue is whether we continue to add positions at this point or just ride what we have higher? As noted above there are always new leaders coming to the fore when the market rallies well. Thus we took some positions Monday in for example DE as it tested back some after starting to move higher this month. V broke sharply higher after testing its break over key resistance. They are moving up as others test and rest. That is how the market rotates money and maintains its strength.
Thus we will take new opportunity as it arises as well as add to good positions we have that are in position and continue to show strong upside attributes, but we also know that earnings could go south (WFC, GS and other financials may be aberrations the rest of the economy cannot duplicate given their low or no cost access to cash to lend) or just run out of ability to drive stocks higher.
What we do is keep picking good stocks ready to move and in good position to move without loading up the boat and at the same time take gain on positions we currently have as they put in good moves. The move is a bit old and it has some serious resistance on SP500. That doesn't mean it stops in its tracks, but the risk/reward position overall is not as good as it was. Thus pick stocks in good position to move that have already announced earnings or have earnings announcements 3 to 4 or more weeks away. That does not totally insulate them from the overall market but it helps as we want to keep active as long as the move continues higher. The reason: no matter what all of us think the market is going to do, it is going to do what it wants. That may just mean it continues rising farther and longer than most everyone thinks it can. That is how the market usually works.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1653.31
Resistance:
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
1947 is the October gap down point
Support:
1644 from August 2003
1623 is the April peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
The 10 day EMA at 1594
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
The 50 day EMA at 1514
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 50 day SMA at 1481
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
S&P 500: Closed at 858.73
Resistance:
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
846 is the April peak
839 is the early October 2008 low
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 10 day EMA at 831
The 90 day SMA at 827
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 808
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 8057.81
Resistance:
The April peak at 8076
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
The 90 day SMA at 7974
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
The 10 day EMA at 7885
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
The 50 day EMA at 7718
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 14 - Tuesday
PPI, March (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail sales, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.1% prior
Retail ex-auto (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.7% prior
Business inventories, February (10:00): -1.2% expected, -1.1% prior
April 15 - Wednesday
CPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
New York PMI, April (8:30): -35.0 expected, -38.2 prior
Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 69.7% expected, 70.9% prior
Industrial Production, March (9:15): -0.9% expected, -1.4% prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): +1.6M prior
Fed Beige Book (2:00)
April 16 - Thursday
Housing starts, March (8:30): 550K expected, 583K prior
Building permits, March (8:30): 550K expected, 547K prior
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 658K expected, 654K prior
Philly Fed, April (10:00): -32.0 expected, -35.0 prior
April 17 - Friday
Michigan Preliminary sentiment, April (9:55): 58.5 expected, 57.3 prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂04/13/2009 Market View 宁子 字5205 2009-04-13 19:18:53
🙂THE ECONOMY 宁子 字1559 2009-04-13 19:19:18
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字7836 2009-04-13 19:19:51
🙂TUESDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 1 宁子 字5103 2009-04-13 21:45:14