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主题:04/14/2009 Market View -- 宁子
Tuesday night it was GS with great earnings but a stock offering that got it slapped around. INTC broke higher Tuesday but could not hold the move. After hours some solid earnings and gross margins. It said the PC market bottomed in Q1 and would return to normal seasonal patterns. Then it said it would spend less on facilities and equipment. It also said gross margins would be in the mid-40's versus the 46% to 47% the street expected. That gutted it and it was down 5.5% after hours taking the chip equipment stocks lower with it. This will be a real challenge for the market: its primary leadership group will be under some serious pressure.
There is also the CPI, NY PMI, Industrial production and capacity. Then the Fed Beige Book straggles in during the afternoon session. It is also expiration week and midweek can show some volatility with bigger swings. Saw some of those in the financial sector. Economic data influenced the Tuesday action but it is not going to do a lot to impact the Wednesday start given the INTC news.
So the market gets a real test after another pretty solid earnings report looks to be dusting up the futures to the downside again. Could it be that the early earnings love affair after RIMM, BBBY, WFC's pre-announcement is already over? The market hit next resistance, moved modestly through it, but then could not hold it. It is now testing on rising volume.
We will see how INTC is truly treated tomorrow, but if the chips are going to stumble then the selloff could have some significant downside. As the market could not capitalize on the late recovery attempt, the volume was up, the INTC results are not well received, Asian markets are lower, and it is expiration week, we will ready to take some off the table as opportunity is presented if an early test is not sharply reversed to the upside. If the latter we will, as always, look for some upside opportunity if support holds and good stocks bounce, but we have to also keep focused on existing positions and preserve gain as the volume and earnings reception are teaming up right now.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1625.72
Resistance:
1644 from August 2003
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1780 is the November 2008 peak
1947 is the October gap down point
Support:
1623 is the April peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
1603 is the December peak
The 10 day EMA at 1600
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
The 50 day EMA at 1519
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
The 50 day SMA at 1484
1440 is the January 2009 closing low
S&P 500: Closed at 841.50
Resistance:
846 is the April peak
848 is the October 2008 closing low
853 is the July 2002 low
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
839 is the early October 2008 low
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 10 day EMA at 833
The 90 day SMA at 827
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 809
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 7920.18
Resistance:
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The April peak at 8076
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
7909 is the early January low
The 10 day EMA at 7891
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
The 50 day EMA at 7726
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 14 - Tuesday
PPI, March (8:30): -1.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)
Retail sales, March (8:30): -1.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Retail ex-auto (8:30): -0.9% actual versus 0.0% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 0.7%)
Business inventories, February (10:00): -1.3% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -1.1%)
April 15 - Wednesday
CPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Core CPI (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
New York PMI, April (8:30): -35.0 expected, -38.2 prior
Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 69.7% expected, 70.9% prior
Industrial Production, March (9:15): -0.9% expected, -1.4% prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): +1.6M prior
Fed Beige Book (2:00)
April 16 - Thursday
Housing starts, March (8:30): 550K expected, 583K prior
Building permits, March (8:30): 550K expected, 547K prior
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 658K expected, 654K prior
Philly Fed, April (10:00): -32.0 expected, -35.0 prior
April 17 - Friday
Michigan Preliminary sentiment, April (9:55): 58.5 expected, 57.3 prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂THE ECONOMY 宁子 字7169 2009-04-14 20:55:37
🙂THE ECONOMY (cont) 宁子 字1331 2009-04-14 20:56:09
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字7029 2009-04-14 20:56:41
🙂WEDNESDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 1 宁子 字5614 2009-04-14 22:30:25