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主题:04/16/2009 Market View -- 宁子
Expiration Friday and there have already been some downside and upside moves in advance this week, the latest being the Thursday rally. As there were some significant moves both ways Tuesday through Thursday it is quite possible that Friday turns out to be a quieter session or a session dominated by one predominant move.
Earnings will again play an important role with GOOG's after hours results that were well-received until the CEO talked of 'uncharted territory' and a terrible ad environment. Will GOOG's worries blanket the rest of the techs and market in malaise? We will see; thus far the market has shaken off individual earnings . . . after a brief setback as on NASDAQ after the INTC numbers.
If we get some more upside out of this we will take some more gain as our positions move higher. As for new buys, well we will be looking for good moves but Friday is not our favorite entry time as another solid move higher would set up the market for some pullback to start next week, and that would either give us better entry points or start something more significant to the downside. The Monday after an upside expiration is often lower. There is also that low volume on this rise that will at some point bite it like a Charlie Horse if more upside volume does not come in, and we have to be cognizant of that and not buy into surges that are a few days old.
Thus we play it closer to the vest for new buys but if we see something really solid we can venture some shares. Again, however, on a good surge higher we bank some more gain. As stated above this kind of move can run further than rational thought would consider, but that does not mean it goes up forever. Thus we take advantage of good upside entry points when presented and also take gain on good moves and follow the moves higher with reasonable trailing stops.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1670.44
Resistance:
1780 is the November 2008 peak
1947 is the October gap down point
Support:
1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak
1661 is the April 2009 prior peak
The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)
1644 from August 2003
1623 is the early April peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
The 10 day EMA at 1616
1603 is the December peak
1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made
1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again
1569 is the late January 2009 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1528
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.
1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low
S&P 500: Closed at 865.30
Resistance:
866 is the second October 2008 low
878 is the late January 2009 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
944 is the January 2009 high
Support:
857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
846 is the April peak
842 is the early April peak
The 10 day EMA at 841
839 is the early October 2008 low
833 is the March 2009 peak
The 90 day SMA at 827
818 is the early November 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 813
805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with
741 is the November 2008 intraday low
Dow: Closed at 8125.43
Resistance:
8141 is the early December low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak
8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation
8451 is the early October closing low
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9088 is the January 2009 peak
Support:
The April peak at 8113
The early April peak at 8076
7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.
The 10 day EMA at 7954
7932 is the March 2009 peak
7909 is the early January low
7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.
7867 is the early February low
The 50 day EMA at 7753
7702 is the July 2002 low
7694 is the February intraday low
7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
April 14 - Tuesday
PPI, March (8:30): -1.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)
Retail sales, March (8:30): -1.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Retail ex-auto (8:30): -0.9% actual versus 0.0% expected, 1.0% prior (revised from 0.7%)
Business inventories, February (10:00): -1.3% actual versus -1.2% expected, -1.3% prior (revised from -1.1%)
April 15 - Wednesday
CPI, March (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Core CPI (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
New York PMI, April (8:30): -14.65 actual versus -35.0 expected, -38.2 prior
Capacity Utilization, March (9:15): 69.3% actual versus 69.7% expected, 70.3% prior
Industrial Production, March (9:15): -1.5% actual versus -0.9% expected, -1.5% prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): +5.6M actual versus +2.5M expected, +1.6M prior
Fed Beige Book (2:00)
April 16 - Thursday
Housing starts, March (8:30): 510K actual versus 540K expected, 572K prior (revised from 583K)
Building permits, March (8:30): 503K actual versus 549K expected, 564K prior (revised from 547K)
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 610K actual versus 658K expected, 663K prior (revised from 654K)
Philly Fed, April (10:00): -24.4 actual versus -32.0 expected, -35.0 prior
April 17 - Friday
Michigan Preliminary sentiment, April (9:55): 58.5 expected, 57.3 prior
- 相关回复 上下关系4
🙂04/16/2009 Market View 宁子 字5658 2009-04-16 20:33:25
🙂THE MARKET 宁子 字6625 2009-04-16 20:34:00
🙂FRIDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 宁子 字3244 2009-04-17 13:31:58