主题：04/21/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Wednesday already. My how time flies when you don't know what the federal government is going to do from day to day with the banks, the economy, or anything. All things considered and all things thrown at it, the market has done quite well.

The question on every financial show that comes up 50 to 65 times a day is whether the rally is over or not. Right now the market has not tipped its hand but it is showing that it is tired and needs a rest of some sort. The leading SOX is struggling, failing to make a new high after making a new high. It is coming back to test and the other indices are showing some top heavy action as well. SOX was first and now the other indices are struggling. SP600 is trying to emerge as a leader. Good to see but a bummer on the timing. Can the children lead? Yes, but they likely cannot hold up the rest of the market. As noted above, perhaps they can keep things on a lateral plane. Again, the market hasn't tipped its hand and the small caps have not shown yet they are truly ready to try and lead.

So we have picked at a few new upside positions, are looking at some downside positions to see if they develop, and have taken positions off the table as the market rose. We still have several positions left, partials on a lot after taking some gains. If they cannot hold support or struggle more on upside days we will close them out and see what develops. The market is top heavy but the sellers have not taken over. Monday they flexed their muscles a bit but volume was relatively light. They are not done, however, so we will continue to look for some potential downside as we also continue to look for good stocks that are pulling back nicely to keep tabs on for the move higher AND those that are ready to move higher despite the overall tiredness in the leaders that brought the market up off the March lows.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1643.85

Resistance:

1644 from August 2003

The January closing peak at 1653 (intraday)

1661 is the April 2009 prior peak

1666 is the intraday January 2009 peak

1780 is the November 2008 peak

The 200 day SMA at 1778

1947 is the October gap down point

Support:

The 18 day EMA at 1599

1623 is the early April peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

1603 is the December peak

1598 is the February 2009 peak, the last peak NASDAQ made

1587 is the March 2009 high is getting put to bed again

1569 is the late January 2009 peak

1542 is the early October 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 1541

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1505 is the late October 2008 closing low.

1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low

S&P 500: Closed at 850.08

Resistance:

853 is the July 2002 low

857 is the December consolidation low; cracking but not broken

866 is the second October 2008 low

878 is the late January 2009 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

944 is the January 2009 high

Support:

848 is the October 2008 closing low

846 is the April peak

842 is the early April peak

839 is the early October 2008 low

833 is the March 2009 peak

The 90 day SMA at 826

818 is the early November 2008 low

The 50 day EMA at 817

815 is the early December 2008 low

805 is the low on the January 2009 selloff. KEY Level

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

752 is the November 2008 closing low but it is not broken and done away with

741 is the November 2008 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 7969.56

Resistance:

7965 is the mid-November 2008 interim intraday low.

The early April peak at 8076

The April peak at 8113

8141 is the early December low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8375 is the late January 2009 interim peak

8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation

8451 is the early October closing low

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8626 from December 2002

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9088 is the January 2009 peak

Support:

7932 is the March 2009 peak

7909 is the early January low

7882 is the early October 2008 intraday low. Key level to watch.

7867 is the early February low

The 50 day EMA at 7778

7702 is the July 2002 low

7694 is the February intraday low

7552 is the November closing low. KEY Level.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

April 20 - Monday

March Leading Economic Indicators (10:00): -0.3% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior (revised from -0.4%)

April 22 - Wednesday

04/17 Crude Oil Inventories (10:35): +5.670M prior

April 23 - Thursday

04/18 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 630K expected, 610K prior

Existing Home Sales, March (10:00): 4.65M expected, 4.72M

April 24 - Friday

March Durable Orders (8:30): -1.5% expected, 5.1% prior

Durable Orders, Ex-Auto, March (8:30): -1.2% expected, 3.9% prior

New Home Sales, March (10:00): 340K expected, 337K prior