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家园 2008年11月以来

2008年11月5日:国务院推出“四万亿”计划。

November 12: Treasury Secretary Paulson abandons plan to buy toxic assets under the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Mr. Paulson said the remaining $410 billion in the fund would be better spent on recapitalizing financial companies.

November 15: The group of 20 of the world’s largest economies meets in Washington DC and releases a statement of the meeting. Although no detailed plans were agreed upon, the meeting focused on implementing policies consistent with five principles: strengthening transparency and accountability, improving regulation, promoting market integrity, reinforcing cooperation and reforming international institutions.

November 17: The Treasury gives out $33.6 billion to 21 banks in the second round of disbursements from the $700 billion bailout fund. This payout brings the total to $158.56 billion so far.

November 24: The US government agrees to rescue Citigroup after an attack by investors causes the stock price to plummet 60% over the last week under a detailed plan that including injecting another $20 billion of capital into Citigroup bringing the total infusion to $45 billion.

November 25: The US Federal Reserve creates a $200 billion facility to extend loans against securitizations backed by consumer and small business loans.

November 25: The Federal Reserve announces that it would purchase up to $100 billion of agency debt, and up to $500 billion of agency MBS. (“量化宽松”政策浮出水面。)

11月26日:中国人民银行大幅下调存贷款基准利率各1.08个百分点。同时首次下调存款准备金率(大银行下调1%,中小型下调2%)。

December 1: The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared that the U.S. economy had entered recession in December 2007, a full year earlier.

12月4日:欧洲多家中央银行再度联手展开降息行动。瑞典央行将主导利率由原先的3.75%降至2%;英格兰银行降息1个百分点至2%;欧央行将欧元区主导利率由3.25%降至2.5%,为有史以来最大降息幅度。这是欧洲多家央行在短短两个月时间里展开的第三次联合降息行动。

December 16: Federal Reserve sets the range of the federal funds rate to be 0~0.25%.

12月17日:美元兑日元汇率触及13年来最低点87.31日元/美元。

备注:中国经济在07年到了周期回落的时期(2季度达到峰值)。

中国GDP(季度,同比):10.6(08年1季度),10.1,9.0,6.8,6.1(09年1季度,无刺激计划则1%左右),7.1。

中国出口(季度,同比):21.4(08年1季度),22.4,22.9,4.3,-19.7(2009年1季度)。

进出口总额在09年有20-25%的下滑,10年也会如此。

CPI和PPI拐点在2008年6月份(后直线下降)。

2009

January 16: The Irish authorities seize control of Anglo Irish Bank; replicating an approach taken in the case of Citigroup in November, the US authorities agree to support Bank of America through a preferred equity stake and guarantees for a pool of troubled assets.

January 19: British banking shares collapsed in a rout of selling after Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) announced the biggest corporate losses (28 billion loss for 2008) in British history. The shares fell over 67% in a single day. As part of a broad-based financial rescue package, the UK authorities increase their existing stake in Royal Bank of Scotland. Similar measures by other national authorities follow over the next few days.

February 10: The US authorities present plans for new comprehensive measures in support of the financial sector, including a Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) of up to $1 trillion to purchase troubled assets.

February 10: G7 Finance Ministers and central bank Governors reaffirm their commitment to use the full range of policy tools to support growth and employment and strengthen the financial sector.

March 5: The Bank of England launches a program, worth about $100 billion, aimed at outright purchases of private sector assets and government bonds over a three-month period.

March 9: the Dow falls to 6440, a percentage decline exceeding the pace of the market's fall during the Great Depression and a level which the index had last seen in 1996.

March 18: The Federal Reserve announces plans for purchases of up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over a period of six months. Moreover, the Federal Reserve raises its intended purchases of agency debt to $200 billion (a $100 billion increase) and its intended purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities to $1.25 trillion (a $750 billion increase) by the end of the year.

March 23: The US Treasury provides details on the PPIP proposed in February.

April 2: The communiqué issued at the G20 summit pledges joint efforts by governments to restore confidence and growth, including measures to strengthen the financial system.

April 6: The US Federal Open Market Committee authorizes new temporary reciprocal foreign currency liquidity swap lines with the Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank.

April 24: The US Federal Reserve releases details on the stress tests conducted to assess the financial soundness of the 19 largest US financial institutions, declaring that most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amount required for them to remain well capitalised.

May 7: The ECB’s Governing Council decides in principle that the ECB will purchase euro-denominated covered bonds; the US authorities publish the results of their stress tests and identify 10 banks with an overall capital shortfall of $75 billion, to be covered chiefly through additions to common equity.

June 22: the World Bank projected that the global production for 2009 would fall by 2.9%, the first decline since the second world war.

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