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家园 Andy Xie on Shanghai Grand Prix

清晨起来看到这一篇,来不及翻译(呵呵,也实在翻译不好),各位老大见谅。拿来算作一家之言吧。

The Playground

I was checking into my hotel. The polite receptionist in a sharp

uniform processed my details and gave me a key for four days. I was

confused. I thought that I would leave in three days. She told me that

the room was kept for me the day before. It was booked half a year ago

for over four hundred dollars per night. I was a bit taken aback and

asked if it was the same for everyone else. "Of course, it's F1", she

replied.

Lucky someone else was paying my bill.

Shanghai was hosting the Grand Prix for the first time. It was another

coming-out party for Shanghai. The hotels in the city were having a

blast. The Grand Prix venue had capacity for 150,000 and was sold out.

Tens of thousands flew in to see the event. The event could increase

tourist dollars by $150 million. I had not seen a spectacle like this

since the Three Tenors at the Forbidden City two years ago.

As the global economy has recovered, businesses around the world again

go over the top to entertain their top clients. Where they choose the

venue depends on which city happens to be hot. Shanghai is it for now.

No self-respecting financial types want to hear 'wow, you haven't been

to Shanghai'. Hence, businesses around the world want to entertain

their top clients in Shanghai. The Grand Prix offered the occasion for

hosting such parties.

I took a taxi to join a dinner with a bunch of financial types. I told

the taxi driver in Shanghainese dialect on where to go. He replied in

Mandarin or Putonghua. I asked him if he was local. 'You don't have to

learn Shanghainese. We speak Putonghua here', he replied proudly.

'What's wrong with my Shanghainese?' I asked. 'Your Shanghainese

sounded out-of-townish. So I spoke Putonghua to help you out', he

replied.

I was mortified.

Ten years ago, a Chinese Indonesian businessman took me to an

entertainment venue-one of those places for overseas Chinese businessmen

in Shanghai. I asked a waiter for a drink in Shanghainese. 'You little

bi-san, how did you get in here', he screamed at me.

'Never speak Shanghainese here. When you speak Mandarin, try to sound

like someone from Hong Kong or Taiwan', he advised me.

He was born in Shanghai, raised in Taiwan, and migrated to Indonesia to

take advantage of its textile export quotas to the US. He could speak

both Shanghainese and Mandarin perfectly but had to fake a bad Southern

accent to get around.

Shanghai was experiencing a massive boom then. It offered

foreigner-only properties to Taiwanese and Hong Kongie buyers. Many

took up the offer and fueled the boom. Taiwanese businessmen were often

buying properties to keep mistresses in the western part of the city,

where high-rise apartment buildings went up first. Expensive

entertainment venues were popping up for entertaining Taiwanese

businessmen where they probably met their mistresses first. They were

the only ones with money in town.

The boom crashed; property prices dropped by over a half in the

following five years. Many of those Taiwanese guys went belly up,

leaving behind a wave of bad debts behind at Chinese state banks that

still haunt China today.

'Did I try to forget Shanghainese subconsciously?' I thought guiltily to

myself.

The restaurant was on the top two floors of an old colonial building

along the Huangpu River-part of the riverfront strip that was the

British Concession in Shanghai popularly known as the bund. Expensive

marbles seemed to fill every bit of the surface in the restaurant. The

furniture looked similar to a funky fusion restaurant in Sydney. Maybe

the owners were Australian.

The Grand Prix crowds were appearing in the restaurant. The waiters

were scurrying around to keep champagne and wine flowing. There were

occasional protests on how long it took food to arrive. Considering the

patronage level, the restaurant was as efficient as any in London or

Sydney.

The patrons were mostly westerners. The Chinese around were speaking

English also. Quite a few white people were waiting there. When I saw

the bill, it became apparent why they wanted to work there instead of

Sydney or London.

Fireworks went up on the other side of the river during the dinner,

illuminating the shiny skyscrapers towering along the riverbank. The

diners could see the striking shapes of the skyscrapers in varying

glows.

'See the buildings! It's all tangible! So bullish', one guy gushed.

Shanghai has created an impressive skyline on the east side of the river

that was paddy field fifteen years ago. The colonial buildings on the

west side have been kept. Neon lights profusely adorn the old and new

buildings, creating the pride of Shanghai-a postcard view of a modern

city.

The crowds surged onto the terrace after the meal to enjoy the river

view in a gentle autumn breeze. Suddenly, the lights went out. 'Who

switched off the lights? Is the bubble bursting?' a colleague murmured

fearfully in the dark.

'Don't worry. It is regulation time to switch off the lights. The

party is still on', I tried to put the people at ease.

We decided to abandon the dark terrace for an expat hangout in the old

French Concession area. It was a French colonial building in the middle

of a park. Throngs of people, mostly westerners, were surging into the

building through a tunnel of neon lights. The bouncers were trying hard

to keep out many who were already drunk.

Inside, the people, mostly westerners, were packed solid in the middle.

Many tried to dance. But it was mostly jumping up and down. Many

financial types in Hong Kong decamped for Shanghai in 2001 after the

tech burst. Some of them were in the dancing crowd, celebrating their

good fortunes again.

There was a sit-down section on the side where crowds of Chinese were

speaking loudly in English to each other. They were mostly overseas

Chinese or Chinese Chinese who had spent sometime abroad. Many probably

joined western companies to work in Shanghai. With their international

salaries, they could pay Hong Kong prices in Shanghai.

Through a side door, there was another hall; the youngish crowds packed

the place and were dancing to techno beat. The DJ was a white guy. It

was just loud music. Everyone in the crowd looked spaced out. I saw

similar scenes in Jakarta in 1996.

Speaking English is the new sign of status in town. The bad southern

accent doesn't carry the same prestige as before. Some Chinese guys

that I had come across faked to have forgotten Chinese after spending a

couple of years abroad. Shanghai is in a hurry to move up.

Taiwanese guys are buying up a lot of the apartments in Shanghai at

steep prices. I heard that Taiwanese and Hong Kongies accounted for 80%

of the buyers at the top end of the Shanghai property market. Their

money is fueling the boom. Poor Taiwanese now spend more money but get

less respect.

The 'Buckingham Palace' was going up this time. I saw it. It was an

apartment block. I always guessed that it would happen one day but

didn't expect it so soon. I thought it would be a sign of the top.

Many Taiwanese want to live in the Buckingham Place and would pay up, I

guess.

Selling apartments in the city center to non-residents has been the main

source of money for building Shanghai. Hundreds of thousands of

original residents have been resettled to outlying areas. 'People speak

English in the center, Mandarin in Putong (or East Side of the Hungpu

River), and Shanghainese in Nanhui' goes one joke. Nahui is a farming

county two hours away from the city center. Actually, it was mostly

Taiwanese properties in the city center. The westerns just rent from

them.

There were more trees, I noted. I was puzzled at first: how could trees

grow so fast? Then I saw the big urns holding up the trees on top of

concrete payments. Shanghai found a quick way to make the city green.

Shanghai's flexibility is why it has risen so fast. No other city in

the world would have vacated the city center to build properties for

non-residents in exchange for money to put up high-rises, elevated roads

and neon lights. Shanghai is willing to pay any price to be a great

city again, it seems.

Taiwanese money is at the center of Shanghai's rise. Hundreds of

thousands of Taiwanese had taken their life savings to Shanghai. These

people missed Taiwan's boom and wanted to get rich in Shanghai's

development. They have opened thousands of restaurants, boutique shops

and entertainment venues in a 21st gold rush. They are investing so far

ahead of Shanghai people's income (average wage $215/month last year)

that most of them would fail, I believe. But Shanghai would get to keep

all those nicely decorated shops.

Investing in Shanghai property is the biggest game for Taiwanese. Most

believe that Shanghai property prices would go up and Renminbi would

appreciate. They just cannot have enough of a good thing. Shanghai

sold 22 million square meters or $13 billion (or 17.3% of Shanghai's

GDP) of new residential properties last year. This year's sales are

rising at least by 10% in volume and 30% in value.

Taiwanese export businesses along the coast have made enormous amounts

of profits from taking advantage of cheap Chinese labor. These monies

usually go into USD assets via Hong Kong financial institutions but have

poured into Shanghai properties since Renminbi appreciation became a hot

topic.

The expectation that Renminbi would appreciate is keeping money pouring

into China even though the US has raised interest rate three times and

China hasn't. The game keeps going as long as the money keeps coming.

Andy Xie (from Shanghai)

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