主题：请中国政府对萨米人的悲惨遭遇表示关注 -- Emyn

here. recession有两种。

一种是由于制造业的inventory周期循环引起的，

另一种是asset bubble引起的--this usually comes together with a crazy bank expansion and implosion.

The former type of recession will take 2 years (on average) to end (mostly shorter than 2 years).

The second type of recession will take usually 5 years to end/recover--because people/corporations need time to cut off debt and shape up their balance sheet. Banks will be so scared that it takes time for them to forget about the craziness of last recession.

examples,

1815-1821,

1836-1838

1873-1979, the famous panic, and the FIRST DEPRESSION before the great Depression in 1930s.

1882-1885

Great Depression, 1929-1934

This round of recession was all driven by an insane banking system+housing bubble (it happened so many times in the history of America--the earliest one is 1815-1821) and even with active gov. capital injection, it should take at least 5 years to fully recover.

US gov. used unorthodox policy combination (aggressive fiscal and monetary policies) to relieve the pain in 2009-2010. But the side effect is that US economy is fully driven by artificial stimuli. When the stimuli could not persist, the decline could be really fast.

So we are NOT entering into a new recession--we just have not finished the previous one yet.

Now monetary/fiscal loosening is coming to an end. America will have 1-2 years of involuntary tightening on both fronts.