主题：【原创】当前局势的几点看法 -- 井底望天

experience,American experience, under Gold Standard where deflation prolongs the misery. We have fiat paper money system now. One big difference.

If one recession was triggered by credit overexpansion, relevant housing and credit bubble, the average recession period is 5 years. Of course, that's based on the U.S. experience in the last 150 years, when AMERICA IS STILL A RISING NEW HOPE for human beings.

If we talk about Europe or Asia where people love to use violence, xenophobia, genocide, and military conflicts to solve economic issues, then the 25-30年，如果你运气好的话 estimate could still be optimistic. France experienced a credit bubble and collapse around 1710s, thanks to a cunning Scotsman called John Law. France never fully recovered after that and its turmoil lasted until 1815 when Napoleon was finally kicked out to a small island.

Therefore, in France's case, the answer for 从这样规模的经济危机里面恢复过来，大概要多少年？ is 100 years.