主题：【原创】60%的外贸依存度和抗日风潮 -- 汉关秦月

我的想法：

1. 外贸依存度，可以是横向比较，也可以是纵向比较。新加坡的例外（新加坡本来是一个贸易中转港)不能就简单说外贸依存度没有意义。

2. 所谓的全球化,以及加入WTO等等对中国的影响,我觉得中国的得失难以预料.以中国目前的产业结构状况,我们能看到的是中国输出了便宜的劳力,和环境资源等,输入的更多是国外的高价值高技术产品和服务.而全球化可能维持和加剧这种对中国国民不利的结构.如果中国不能改善自身的产业结构,提高技术含量,中国还将是别人的经济殖民地.

3.抵制日货,过于片面.完整的表述应该是抵制日货,发展国货.如果不买日本货,转而买美国货,欧洲货对中国本身并没太大改变(经济上).抵制日货,同时也必须发展国货.当然有人说国产货质量不好,没法支持.不过当年日本车起步的时候也很烂阿,没有日本人的支持,怎么能发展到今天?(题外话: 想到中国的铁路项目就是气---化几百亿去买别人的技术,为什么不用这些钱发展自己的技术?难道真的等不及了吗?花钱买外交吗?外交是凭实力来的,不是花钱能买来的.不要看中国好像财大气粗,拿钱来砸法国德国英国,那些钱都是中国普通人的血汗钱,有多少可以来花钱销灾呢?结果到现在还不是一场空.)

4.抵制日货有用吗?我觉得有用.只不过在这种战争中,中日的地位不一样.如果中国能抓住机会同时发展自身的话,对中国来说还是有益处的.

团结才会有力量.大家都坚持下去,日本人才会害怕的.

下面的文章可以参考一下.

China's low-cost labor lures Japanese firms

By Paul Wiseman

DONGGUAN, China ― Nervous Japanese called it "the China Syndrome" ― the fear that cheap Chinese labor would spell doom for corporate Japan. How could Japanese factories compete with Chinese rivals that paid workers one-thirtieth as much?

But these days, China's lower costs are looking less like a threat and more like salvation to Japanese companies desperate to regain a competitive edge in world markets. At first reluctantly, but now with gusto, Japanese executives are descending on Chinese boomtowns like this one across the border from Hong Kong, spending their nights crooning into the karaoke machines of local bars and their days scouring the industrial landscape for factories they can do business with. Canon, NEC, Honda and other big Japanese manufacturers are spending billions to put up plants in China, usually with local partners. Japanese investment in China this year could shatter last year's record $4.6 billion. Largely because relocated Japanese factories in China are busy sending products back to Japan, China quietly surpassed the USA as the No. 1 exporter to Japan in the first nine months of this year.

Shifting production overseas isn't new to Japanese manufacturers. They moved factories to Southeast Asia, the USA and other nations in the '90s. Japan has shed 3 million manufacturing jobs since 1990, when it fell into an economic slump from which it hasn't recovered. But after a brief China investment boom in the mid-'90s, Japan grew wary about doing business with a historic rival it sees as an economic threat.

For good reason, Japanese executives saw China as a backwater that could crank out cheap toys but make few sophisticated products. They worried about getting ripped off by Chinese partners; about seeing their best technology stolen and used against them by Chinese competitors; about shoddy Chinese-made goods that wouldn't meet the standards of persnickety Japanese consumers; about a capricious and corrupt communist government that changed the rules of business without warning. They even had to worry about personal safety: In the '90s, Chinese kidnapping rings preyed on foreign executives in coastal factory towns such as Dongguan.

Those worries haven't been banished. But China has gone a long way toward reassuring Japanese investors that its politics are stable, its streets safe and, most important, its factories competitive.

"In the past two years, the number of factories that have been able to find (an acceptable) level of quality has increased dramatically," says Takanori Ohara, executive director of Ad-Forest, an Osaka, Japan, firm that makes home and car alarm systems. "This wasn't an overnight change but a slow buildup over a number of years."

The transformation

Ohara has witnessed the transformation firsthand. One of his early experiences in China proved disastrous. As an executive for a Japanese electronic-games manufacturer in the mid-1990s, he placed a big order for handheld computer games with a Chinese factory. His supplier substituted Chinese computer chips for the Taiwanese chips he had specified, resulting in 50,000 defective games.

Back then, Chinese firms were out for quick cash, partly because they didn't know if their government would shut down the economic reforms that opened China to trade and investment in the early '80s. Ripping off Japanese was also sweet for those with memories of Japan's occupation before and during World War II.

Now, Chinese are more confident that economic reform is here for good, and more factory managers know that staying in business means satisfying customers, whether they're Japanese or not. The Chinese also have benefited from an influx of investment from Taiwan. Taiwanese, fleeing rising costs back home, are relocating entire companies to the Chinese mainland, bringing with them advanced technology and management expertise China lacks.

As Chinese factories improve, Japanese companies are under increasing pressure to cut costs. Japan shows no sign of pulling out of its economic slump; prices fall month after month, squeezing profit margins. Japanese consumers, once suspicious of foreign goods, now are willing to seek bargains. The Uniqlo clothing chain, for instance, rose to prominence in Japan by offering made-in-China clothes at a fraction of the price of Japanese-made garments.

"The environment has changed in both countries," says Joe Law, a Japanese-speaking Hong Kong consultant who helps companies from Japan set up shop in China.

The China advantage has worked for Ohara's Ad-Forest. Two years ago, it was struggling as an operator of fitness centers and karaoke clubs in Japan. The company ditched the exercise bikes and sing-along machines and started making car and home security systems in China for export to Japan. China's low costs, combined with popular products, worked: In the fiscal year ended March 31, Ad-Forest's profits rose fourfold.

Ad-Forest has plenty of company in China. In July, Honda announced it would put up a plant with two Chinese partners in Guangzhou near here to build and export small cars. Nissan has revealed plans to start building cars next year in a joint venture in central Hubei Province. Canon began making laser printers in Zhongshan in southern China last year, and this year is opening a copier complex near Shanghai. Pioneer aims to develop car audio equipment and DVD players in Shanghai. Electronics giant NEC plans to make 80% of its projectors in China, up from 50% now. NEC says producing projectors in China's Guangdong Province, instead of Nagano, Japan, will cut costs 20%.

Chinese companies and government agencies are eager to make the Japanese feel at home. In Dongguan, Chinese developers are clearing land for a 40-acre industrial park known as Little Japan. It will offer tenants access to Japanese-speaking accountants and lawyers along with a hotel furnished with the tatami mats and low tables Japanese business people are used to back home.

Japanese in China tend to live, work and party together. Restaurants, karaoke clubs and golf courses catering to Japanese businessmen are sprouting across southern China. Some Chinese prostitutes learn to speak Japanese and make themselves up to look like the young women who shop in Tokyo's ritzy Ginza district.

A growing number of Japanese companies see China as more than a production base. They want to sell products here, too. Their hopes are linked to China's recent entry into the World Trade Organization, which requires it to dismantle trade barriers that have kept foreign products out. Tumbling auto tariffs, for example, sent Japanese auto imports to China surging 61% the first half of this year.

Selling to the Chinese market has been perilous for foreign companies. Among other dangers, they can fall victim to copycat Chinese firms that sell lookalike items. Local courts and government officials, who sometimes have ties to pirate companies, often look the other way. But Japanese firms were heartened by a surprise legal victory in August: A Beijing court awarded Yamaha nearly $110,000 from a copycat motorcycle maker. Honda is pursuing a similar case.

The Sino-Japanese trade relationship can still be tense. Japan worries that low-cost Chinese imports will wreck local companies. Last year, Japan blocked imports of Chinese tatami mats, mushrooms and onions, and China retaliated by shutting down imports of Japanese autos in a dispute that lasted months. This year, China is complaining about Japanese steel imports, and Japan has barred imports of Chinese spinach, alleging that it failed health inspections. "Popeye is crying," quips economist Chi Hung Kwan, senior fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry in Tokyo.

"Such disputes will keep happening," as the two countries adjust uneasily to their economic interdependence, predicts Masaki Yabuuchi, chief of the China division for the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), a Japanese government agency.

But economist Kwan, a Hong Kong native who's spent his career in Japan, says Japanese fears of China are overblown. It's easy to pay too much attention to China's cheap labor: True, Chinese workers ― who usually make less than $100 a month ― earn just 3% of Japanese and 2% of U.S. wages. But because they tend to be poorly educated, use obsolete machines and toil for inefficient state-owned companies, they're far less productive. Chinese productivity is just 3% of U.S. levels and 4% of Japan's.

Kwan argues that Japan and China don't compete head-to-head because Japan specializes in more advanced products. He says Japan and China compete in just 16% of product lines. China and its impoverished Southeast Asian neighbor Indonesia, by contrast, compete in 83%. (Nor should the USA be worried about being replaced as No. 1 exporter to Japan; few U.S. firms compete head-to-head with Chinese exporters in Japan.)

For now, Kwan says, China is best at assembling sophisticated components made elsewhere. He distinguishes between two kinds of goods. First, there are those "made in China" with technology shipped in from a more advanced country; then, there are products "made by China" with Chinese intellectual capital and raw materials. "Take a $1,000 computer," Kwan says. "If you take away the Intel CPU and the plasma monitor made in Japan, not much would be left (to be) 'made by China.' "

China faces a critical shortage of management, marketing and technological expertise. Japanese firms that set up factories in China usually continue to handle research and development, product design, marketing and quality control. Ad-Forest's Ohara figures it will take another decade before Japanese companies can entrust sophisticated design work to Chinese firms.

Economists say it makes sense for Japanese companies to focus on the complicated stuff and let China handle labor-intensive assembly jobs. Companies trying to compete in high-cost Japan might have no choice but to consider China as their workshop. "They have to go or die," says consultant Joe Law.