主题：昧国的政治经济军事危机--评奥巴马的昧国领导世界一百年论 -- 思想的行者

1.

first of all, comparative modeling of US and TGchina (my term: TG=china, almost, a "fair" approximation) at system level is super important, for any players or gamers, organization and/or individuals, on both side of this "game of century" as said before, regardless;

2.

as said, I often view TGchina as a "local client" of huge size , while viewing USA as a global 溫度計 manager on server side, in this largely peaceful 全球资本主义生产扩大再生产, largely controlled by USA 金融

USA 金融 =对 global 未来扩大再生产的评估/定價=生产关系经济, a big part of US economy="汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 (1).

USA as a global 溫度計 manager on server side, in this largely peaceful 全球资本主义生产扩大再生产,

3.

"汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 (2): 温水煮青蛙

see the attached

4.

obviously, you need a first class of capitalist political economy 上层建筑/"华盛顿共识" such as all kinds of USA law & the related political structures , for such a capital market to exist and function, atop US still super military power;

5.

can TGchina fuxx/顛覆 USA's "华盛顿共识"?

Deng or Jiang had had a 战略 chance of playing that 中国邦联 concept of Singapore/Taiwan/mainland, while USA was trapped with a two wars post 911, that 中国邦联 may be a real game changer to "华盛顿共识", now that historical window of 中国邦联 may have been closed forever;

"北京共识" has topped out, very likely, globally.

6.

your view of us small business as “野火烧不尽，春风吹又生。” makes great chance;

7.

all in all, uncle sam will likely remain a global super power, and TGchina more likely a regional power, more in terms of economics than anything else, and absent of 第三次世界大戰, economics=politics, globally;

in china, politics=economics, but that is within china, in that sense, tgchina=a regional power, 江山万代红, in china;

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"汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 (2):

""河里有个人叫汉密尔顿ABC": 金融讲得好 - 西西河

www.cchere.com/article/4020000

轉為繁體網頁

2014年6月11日 - http://www.ccthere.com/alist/4006900/3. 1. I like puma2011's post about US as well. very few of us really understand US as a system, kind of ..."

"汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 (2): 温水煮青蛙

1.通货。20世纪以前人类财富能够高度集中的根本原因是通货的稀有性。控制通货的人可以通过高利贷或拟定高份额利润分配合同来实现高收益。通货需求者面临严重通缩效应将不得不接受苛刻条款。

但今天不同了，通货是信用货币，央行具有无限的发行能力。一旦通货持有人妄图单纯以出售持有通货的使用权来谋取高利益，体现在资本市场上就是高利率，央行立刻就会采取诸如逆回购等措施向市场注入通货来将利率压低，保证经济活动的正常运行和增长。

因此在今天的世界经济中，不可能有人单靠先辈留下的大笔通货实现财富增殖。所谓的资本回报率在20世纪以前实质主要是“通货的租金”，但在今天通货泛滥的时代则是“资本家的能力+冒风险”。能力即报酬、风险即博弈，这两者都无法继承。

自己无能的话只能把通货放银行，但银行的利率最多是通胀率+1%，且随着经济发展程度提高会逐步逼近0，银行还有倒闭破产的风险。

so，即使现在继承了1万亿的通货，在年均4%的温和通胀率下，18年不到就会减去一半购买力，59年后剩1/10，100年后只余不足2%。

2.固定资产。固定资产的收益有两项：租金和出售。房屋和设备的使用价值随时间递减，即折旧。土地虽然是人类生产生活的基本资料，但除非人为限制土地供给且资本流入大于资本外逃（比如香港），否则地租涨幅不会超过经济增长率，因为租用人承受不起。

事实上由于流动性宽松，现代经济中固定资产形成速度十分惊人，中国从2000年起固定资产形成增长率一直保持在20%-30%。无论什么东西，只要供应多了其财富增殖能力就递减。

3.金融资产。金融资产中最有继承价值的是股权，因为企业是现代经济的财富制造者，债权则由于利率低不可能成为财富增殖的手段。

但在现代市场经济中，大企业平均寿命约40年，如果股东无能，不可能长期依靠某一只生金蛋的鸡

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