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家园 我还在搜集材料之中,但已知材料足以证实国内报道

漏了若干核心信息。比如洛杉矶时报对3.30停火协议报道如下:

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-myanmar-truce-rebels-20150330-story.html

现在核心问题是克钦是不是在果敢停火之前签停火协议。其它民地武不用考虑。这个停火没有意义,以前签的作废协议堆积如山。其唯一的意义在于克钦与果敢的关系。

如果克钦签停火协议,哪怕是一张没有内容的废纸,都会对果敢同盟军造成打击。反之,则此事完全可以忽略不计。

The draft text was not released publicly but negotiators said they had agreed on terms for joint monitoring of the cease-fire, management of the peace process and other issues that they had struggled over for more than a year.

A formal announcement was expected later this week. The Myanmar government and Western diplomats were hopeful that rebel leaders would sign the accord by late April.

More contentious topics, such as the possible disarmament of the ethnic militias and the government’s demand that they be folded into the national army, have not been discussed.

Meanwhile, however, conflict between the army and ethnic Kokang rebels continues to flare in Myanmar’s remote northeast. More than a month of fighting has left hundreds of soldiers and rebels dead and sent tens of thousands of refugees fleeing into neighboring China.

It has also drawn in other ethnic militias allied with the Kokang, prompting some rebel leaders to say they will not sign a cease-fire while fighting is going on.

The Kokang rebels, who speak Mandarin and have historic links to western China, are believed to number as many as 2,000 fighters equipped with Chinese-made weapons. Kokang representatives have been absent from the talks in Yangon.

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