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主题:对未来的经济的展望 -- zhuhit

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家园 now let's review 2016-17

1. First, my prediction on HCG is right. haha. Housing peaks in Toronto and many other Canadian cities. Wait to see a slow (hopefully so) decline or flat-out over multiple years.

Chinese community has many P2P speculators or house flippers. Time to learn some lessons for them.

2. Commodity cycle is over for this world. Canada shall wait for the next round 30 years later.

3. Trudeau will be replaced as the PM in 2019. 2019 will see Conservative's turn. Federal reserve's monetary policy will hit Canada hard: housing bubble to burst.

Canada's industrial base in Toronto region was totally destroyed. In the next 10 years, Canada will resort to the old tool: CAD depreciation against USD to regain its cost competitiveness. Its only promising industry: oil and gas exporting and tourism.

Canada is a great and beautiful country, but it is not an industrial powerhouse.

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