主题：（讨论）武力攻台可行否？ -- strongman

萨苏和三言都说得不错，我提一个新角度。

This is really a war that nobody wants, but each insists they would go all the way.

Taiwan - the penguin says to its polar bear neighbor: "eat me!"

From Taiwan's point of view, this is certainly a crazy idea and a route to self destruction. Who in Taiwan will benefit?

Politicians? If they think they can somehow survive the first Taiwan war, the second Taiwan war, ... No, they will not gain recognition from the world by declaring independence. Chen is not a mad man, he is a fox, he preaches TI so well that now he is their president. How about that? What does he get for independence? President? He is now. Declaring is one thing, getting recognition is quite another. Average people? Those who are willing to fight stand up please. The truth is, Taiwanese expects the Americans to fight for their independence. Yeah, I want to laugh at those people, you want a business man to shed blood for your independence. HA HA! If a bunch of fat'n rich cowards will vote for their independence with their lives, then allow me on the other side of the betting table.

US - It is the money, stupid!

Keeping Taiwan the state it is now is of the best interest for the States. For a businessman he cares about spending little (lip service) and making a lot of profits (weapons).

If US goes to war with China, how much money will it lose? Take the Korean war for example, it costed the US in '51 alone $300 billion, 64% of its GDP back then. US had to call up all its army reserves to a total of 2.5 million forces, and was going to declare the whole state in war ready state.

Some people speaks US intervention like it is a sure thing, well do you want to pay money out of your pocket for an island that will not be able to pay your war bill back but have to rely on your support for a veeeery long time? Remember, there is no oil but a bunch of cocoNUTs.

If the US does not care about losing its world dominance then go ahead, dish out all its money for a war that it wants no part of, and weaken its financial and global interest so much that it may even lose its world dorminance. (Yeah the Arabs and North Koreans and Japanese and Europeans all want to see the top dog and the newly arrived power beat each other out senselessly.)

I don't even bother to bring up the nuclear threat. There are articles analyzing whether the US can guard itself against China's state-of-the-art multi-payload and mobile nuclear forces.

Sigh, too tired and sign out...