主题：奥巴马政府：电池车非零排放，超内燃机 -- 过来看井大

大力发展公共交通是从战略层面上的解决交通问题的根本方法，把内燃机换成电动机是具体技术层面的尝试。在推一步是城市内规划和城市间合理规划。不能指望可能优良的战术(全电动车)可以矫正错误的战略(发展私人交通)。

电池车不根本就不是零排放车，因为必须要考虑为电池充电的电力产生中的排放！

以燃油发电为例，电动车的能效是14%-20%(从原油到车轮子)，内燃机车是15%-19%。优势并不很明显。当然这是老数据，而且没有考虑车子的制造和回收。电动车的优势在于能使用非传统能源(如风电)。

村支书奥巴马没有变卦，可能是他发现米国在混合动力和纯电动车上没有技术优势，不愿补贴国外厂商吧。

BATTERY ROADMAP FOR WIDESPREAD ADOPTION

我们做到了什么？

Where are we today?

Price/Performance: $1,000 / kWh (Boston Consulting Group, 2010)

Lifetime: 10 years of usage (U.S. DoE)

Range: 100 miles (Nissan LEAF)

Temperature Impact: 50% hit at 32°F, 70% hit at 14°F (Idaho National Laboratory, 2009)

Charge Time: 20 minutes at a station with a next generation fast charger

差距在哪里？

Where do we need to get to?

Price/Performance: $250 / kWh (cost would then be similar to today’s costs, USABC)

Lifetime: 15 years of usage (USABC)

Range: 300 miles (400 miles is the average range today)

Temperature Impact: 0% hit at 32°F, 0% hit at 14°F (ICEs have no temperature hit)

Charge Time: 5 minutes at a station (ICEs fill in around 5 minutes)

差距原因分析，怎么办？

How do we get there?

The difficulty is in hitting all the targets with one battery system. Some batteries have the lifetime and some have the temperature insensitivity but none have all 5 key performance capabilities. The goals above are for widespread adoption, which we just don’t see happening with the current battery chemistries.

We believe that payback times (in the next section) of less than one year are the key to any adoption.

What we expect #1 – electric vehicles remain stuck in a niche for at least 10 years

Why we expect it #1 – costs need to be at parity for consumers to make the switch, costs are driven by the

battery, which experts do not see reaching the needed cost performance in 10 years.

Why it is important #1 – without mass adoption most electric vehicle companies will struggle

电池成本要降下来。如果不大规模的使用，成本下不来。

What we expect #2 – batteries will always be the key to electric vehicles

Why we expect it #2 – almost all the components outside of the drive train are quite mature

Why it is important #2 – batteries are going to be the major driver of both performance and cost; thus the key to the success of an electric vehicle

电池技术要进步。现有所有技术都已经非常成熟，瓶颈很大。

What we expect #3 – electric vehicles will become less interesting, as they are understood to pollute more than expected

Why we expect it #3 – the U.S. National Academy of Science study shows that BEVs and PHEVs both pollute more than unleaded gasoline vehicles: 8% and 22% worse using 2005 data and are projected to still be worse in 2030, by 9% and 17%.

Why it is important #3 – if battery manufacturers cannot reduce the amount of energy driving up the pollution, then they will not be actually better for the environment

纯电动车和混合动力车要比一般无铅汽油车排碳多达8%-22%；即使到了2030年，也排碳多9-17%。

What we expect #4 – governments will slow incentives for electric vehicles

Why we expect it #4 – sovereign debt issues will constrain governments

Why it is important #4 – electrical vehicles are not yet cost effective, incentives are supporting the companies today

政府补贴受经济情况影响，越来越少

What we expect #5 – Plug-in hybrid vehicles will be adopted much more readily than full battery electric vehicles

Why we expect it #5 – the range limitation of BEVs (around 100 miles in warm weather) and lack of charging stations will prevent mass adoption; PHEV overcome this limitation

Why it is important #5 – companies not supplying PHEVs will have trouble reaching the volumes necessary to be competitive

无充电站，上网成本贵，资本投资回笼慢。

What we expect #6 – Today’s battery chemistries will not get costs down for electric vehicles to be price competitive with internal combustion engines

Why we expect it #6 – Industry experts (like the Boston Consulting Group and A123 Systems) see a straight forward path to a 30% price reduction, but not the 70% needed

Why it is important #6 – without competitive pricing, electric vehicles will have to rely on subsidies and stay a niche market

电池需要至少降低70%的成本。现在最领先的降低30%都不到。

What we expect #7 – Government regulators will continue pushing electric vehicles, but adoption will be slow

Why we expect it #7 – similar to ethanol in the US, regulators and legislators want something to work but the reality is not there, which does not stop them from funding the effort for many years

Why it is important #7 – small companies can survive on government programs without mass adoption, large companies will do token efforts, but fast adoption requires a compelling advantage to get people to switch

因为潜在的经济不合理性，政府推进的力度会降低，用户会转移

What we expect #8 – Europe will be the first to adopt electric vehicles

Why we expect it #8 – the European consumer is very concerned about the environment, has relatively high

disposable income, has very high petrol prices, and has short driving distances; making the value proposition for electric vehicles the strongest. Think Car believes the U.S. does not have the demand, income level, infrastructure, nor incentives needed to support the earliest deployments of plug-ins.

Why it is important #8 – companies not supplying Europe will have trouble reaching the volumes necessary to be competitive

在欧洲推进，条件最好（环保理念等）

What we expect #9 – Carbon Regulation (either via Cap & Trade, a carbon tax, or other incentive) will continue in Europe and Asia, but the US, China, and India will move slowly

Why we expect it #9 – the Copenhagen meeting showed clearly where the countries are headed

Why it is important #9 – electric cars cut tailpipe emissions and could take advantage of the programs

What we expect #10 – Electric vehicles will become less interesting over the next 2-3 years

Why we expect it #10 – the promise is likely better than the reality (short range, pricing disadvantages, new technology issues, emission issues from battery manufacture, cold weather operations, lack of profits, increase in alternative approaches [LPG, CNG]);

Why it is important #10 – electric cars have ridden a wave of promise up, but the people will move away when issues occur (as they did in the 1990s in CA)

电池车热度2-3年内会降低

What we expect #11 – Charging infrastructure will progress slowly, rising concerns and further slowing adoption

Why we expect it #11 – in prior trials 90% of charges were done at home (though people want the stations out there), the home charge is more convenient and cheaper, this makes putting up stations that people don’t use less likely

Why it is important #11 – without charging stations BEVs will stay in the niche and consumers will go with PHEVs; utilities may have to upgrade transformers and substations to support charging in key zip codes (may limit ability to charge)

上网充电始终较难克服

What we expect #12 – Some consumers purchase emotionally, most consumers and fleets purchase rationally with pump price, purchase price, refueling infrastructure, and OEM commitment to aid the their decision

Why we expect it #12 – experience in Italy with propane (LPG) and natural gas buses in the U.S. show that if the purchase price is on par, the pump price is better, they can get refueled conveniently, and they trust the tech because the OEM is behind it; then you can get 30% market share (switching from what you know is never easy)

Why it is important #12 – these four metrics are a good first cut at analyzing markets and determining when they might see accelerated adoption rates

冲动购买的客户会很快转向。

1. Grid-connected electric vehicles (GEVs) are not cleaner and not likely to get cleaner than unleaded vehicles. The problem is the extra 13-23% more energy needed to make to batteries than an internal combustion engine (ICE). The U.S. National Academy of Science projects that even in 2030, ICE driven cars will be 9% cleaner than full battery

electric vehicles (BEVs) and 17% cleaner than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

用电网充电的电动车并不比传统车绿色。原因是需要13-23%更多的能量来充电（？）。

美国国家科学院预计，至到2030年，内燃机车比纯电动或者混合车省能9%或者17%。

2. GEVs are too expensive to achieve widespread adoption, and experts don’t see this changing in the next decade.

We expect BEVs and PHEVs coming out this year to have a $9,000 - $20,000 premium over similar ICE cars. We estimate payback times in the 1.2 to 1.9 years for PHEVs after subsides. For BEVs they are all over 3 years, but can be over 10 years. In our opinion, unless the economics to the end user are significantly better, most will continue with the

status quo.

过于昂贵，消费者投资回报期长，即使有政府补贴，也不可持续。

3. GEV batteries have performance and safety issues that look difficult to solve, meaning adoption could be slowed by field testing and initial failures. The range of BEVs with current batteries looks to be around 100 miles, which may be ok for certain city dwellers, but for many that will not be enough. Typical cars have a range today of 400 miles. This range is severely diminished in cold temperatures.

不稳定，巡航长度短，在冬天，在夏天，都会有问题。

3. Only specific niche applications will work for GEVs; again no widespread adoption. To get around the cost, performance, and infrastructure limitations we believe only a few applications will sell including high-end PHEVs, short distance municipal buses, and European based BEVs.

充电网不好解决，只能发展一些高端/短途的产品。

4. The automotive business requires size and electric vehicles are no different. Over the last 50 years it has beendifficult to start a new car company (think DeLorean), but we are seeing new electric car companies today. All of the

top 12 motor groups in the world (roughly 85% share) have a PHEV/BEV announced, and 7 of them expect to be in mass production in 2010 or 2011. We believe the large manufacturers will eventually be the winners in the electric car race – and battery makers need to be supplying this group to achieve the scale needed for low unit costs.

不翻译了，Google Translator。

我的看法是，如果要国家电网配合，这是一个庞大的工程，又是巨大的政府投入，还是要慎重的。不能人有多敢想，地有多高产。