主题：日方须对扣押渔船事件道歉赔偿 -- 明日枯荷包

China, Japan and the Sea

Published: September 24, 201

China and Japan have wisely stepped back from a confrontation in the East China Sea. The incident showed the alarming potential for territorial disputes to quickly escalate and why the players need to work a lot harder to resolve competing claims.

We don’t know who was at fault when a Chinese fishing trawler collided two weeks ago with two Japanese patrol boats in waters near islands that are claimed by both sides (plus Taiwan) and controlled by Japan.

Japan returned the trawler to China and released the crew but detained the captain and threatened to prosecute him for obstructing officials from performing their duties after he rammed the patrol boats. China then cut diplomatic communications, detained four Japanese nationals and suspended exports of rare earth minerals that Japan needs for hybrid cars, guided missiles and wind turbines. With tensions rising, Japan finally freed the captain, and, on Saturday, he headed home.

说中国渔船去主动撞了日本的巡逻船，这个不仅没有定论，渔船怎么会主动去撞呢。而且要是真是去撞了，也是被胁迫夹击而发生的。

拘押了4个日本国民。没有说原因，作者应该用间谍（spies）。这么一写，把TG弄成黑社会似的。

The ownership of the islands — in waters rich with fish and oil and natural gas deposits — has been disputed for decades. China’s claims have become increasingly shrill in recent months; Beijing has even started calling the South China Sea, where Vietnam and the two Koreas also have claims, a “core national interest.” In the diplomatic world, those are fighting words.

作者NC，朝韩跟南海P个关系。

China forced Japan to back down but still did itself no favor. Its bullying behavior will only make its neighbors even more anxious about Beijing’s intentions. There are also questions about Tokyo’s motives. Japanese coast guard officers often board Chinese fishing vessels found in waters claimed by Tokyo to send a message and then send them on their way without incident. The collision this time seems more serious, largely because Chinese warships are also increasingly crossing into Japanese waters. The scars in China over Japan’s long and brutal occupation have not healed. But the two countries have tried to work together to rein in North Korea’s nuclear program. The United States, which has a strong alliance with Tokyo, also is rightly eager to encourage China to become a more responsible regional player.

说中国bully（bully是以大欺小的意思，美国中小学校经常发生这种事情，是美国校园枪击案的主要原因之一）就不对了，日本先出手的。不过作者后来话锋一转，说日本为什么这次一反常态要抓人。

The Obama administration has offered to “facilitate” talks that would ensure freedom of navigation and encourage all states to settle their claims peacefully. That won’t solve the territorial disputes, but it should make confrontations less likely. The time to act is now.

最后表扬美国一番。

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整篇文章让美国人一看，明显是中国不对，在无理取闹（抓日本人、经济制裁），导致冲突升级。

而且还算是比较好的一步，属于进可攻退可守的类型。

我不相信TG会真的指望日本政府道歉赔偿，除非菅直人政府打算主动倒台。

但，

1、道歉有史可鉴，所以这次提同样要求并不过分。2006年日本抓捕台湾渔民，被湾湾百船围堵，搞出很大动静，最后日方不得不放人，并且道歉。

2、如果不道歉，我就有理由跟你说“这事还没完”，因此什么旅游啦稀土啦省级以上互访啦统统保持停滞状态。还有那四个倒霉鬼子，我也要学习你的做派，慢慢玩。我的船长回来后，国内压力就减去大半，接下来是你面对你的国内压力（捞人），看谁急。

这真的是TG扭转被动形象的一招，它非常重要。

如果不这么干，那么整个事件下来，TG基本上是被动的。

实际上詹船长的提早回归，有可能中国付出了人民币升值的代价。

3、要求日本政府道歉和赔偿，等于让对方全盘否定他之前的做法，算是相当强硬的一个表态了（比之前的强烈抗议有力得多）。这种表态有一半是给中国国内看的，TG也需要消除国内怨气。

4、万一日本政府真的道歉了（那就不光TG大长脸面，全国人民都会觉得很爽），哈哈，那我确实可以把那些反制措施全部取消--还是赚的。

日本受不了美国的压力，同意放人了。

美国确认了日本会放人，料想事态不会再激化，就抓紧时间让几个大人物各自出来放了几句狠话。

不曾想TG没有顺坡下驴的意思。。。