西西河

主题:西方,西方媒体,中国,俄国,智者。 -- CaoMeng

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    • 家园 休克疗法

      通过西方的瞳孔-俄国是整么被误解的

      Shock Therapy

      休克疗法

      The decline of the Soviet system mirrored the of other great historical empires –from Persia and Rome to the Hapsburgs and the Ottomans: all were characterized by the inability of an all-powerful centre to micro-manage an increasingly complex and diversified periphery while containing the inevitable centrifugal forces.

      苏联制度的衰退反映了历史上其他伟大帝国的失败-从波斯到罗马到哈布斯堡王朝到奥斯曼帝国:所有上述者都是典型的强力的中央无法微观管理一个越来越复杂,越多元化的边陲而继续约束不可避免的各种离心势力。

      Gorbachev’s misguided attempt at stepwise reform of the socialist system – gradually loosening political control while maintaining tight command over the economy – was an objective lesson in how not to reform.

      戈尔巴乔夫错误地改造社会主义的企图步骤 – 慢慢放松政治掌握一边继续紧抓计划经济 – 是一个客观的不该整么样改革的课程。

      Unlike China, which allowed the gradual development of a parallel private economy under the ridged political oversight of the Communist Party, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dismantling of its command structure amounted to simply ripping out the control unit, allowing the decerebrated body to reorganize itself as best it could in what was to become a grotesque parody of Adam Smith liberalism.

      不像中国那样让与计划经济平行的私人企业在共产党严格控制下逐步发展,苏联的崩溃和它指挥中心的拆卸相当于简单地剖出控制单元,让无脑的身体自己重新组建自己,完全变成了亚当史密斯自由主义的一个奇形怪状滴滑稽模仿体。

      The economic systems of our developed countries function not in some stellar vacuum based on the abstract, mechanical workings of free-market dynamics, but rather within a framework developed over decades if not centuries: an extensive body of legislation,business practices, regulatory bodies, and most vitally, a complex system of checks and balances against the depredations of unconstrained capital – a robust civil society, political parties representing competing economic interests, labour unions, a relatively independent judiciary and in the best of cases, a diverse (if not precisely “free”) press.

      我们发达国家的经济系统不是在一些星际真空中根据抽象,机械的自由市场动态原则来发挥作用的, 而是运行于一个通过了几十年如果不是几百年发展起来的框架中: 一个丰富的机构包括法规,商业惯例,监管机构,然后最重要的,一个复杂的用于对不受约束的掠夺资本的制衡系统-一个强大的民间社会,代表各派经济利益竞争的各党派政党,工会,一个比较独立的司法机构和在最佳环境中,一个多元化(如果不是真正地“自由”)的媒体。

      Russia, of course, had none of these. Soviet legislation was grotesquely unsuited for the workings of a liberal economy.

      俄国,当然,没有任何这些东西。 苏联的法规是完全不能对付一个自由经济的运作的。

      The press was openly controlled by a handful of oligarchs, with journalists bought and sold like cattle. Government regulators were ineffective in the best of cases, available for rental in the remainder.

      媒体被一帮少数的寡头们明目滴掌握,记者们被像牲口一样买卖。政府监管官员,在最好的情况下是无能为力,其他时候可作出租。

      Political parties served the economic interests of their owners.

      政党为它们的主人的经济利益服务。

      By the middle of the decade, a small group of men had – by means fair or foul – succeeded in gaining control of the only truly value-accretive sectors of the Soviet economy, the natural resources exporters, while creating a banking system which lived by parasitizing the State.

      在这10年的中期(草蜢注:指90年代中期), 一小帮男人-通过正常和非正常手段-成功地掌握了苏联经济中唯一价值增值部分,自然资源出口,同时创建了一个扮演国家寄生虫角色的银行机构。

      In the absence of any substantial countervailing powers, the oligarchs could buy, bribe, or upon occasion, shoot away any attempts at constraint – only after the inevitable crisis, with the rise of Vladimir Putin, was there to be a counterforce powerful enough to break the political stranglehold of the oligarchy.

      在没有任何反对势力的情况下,寡头们可以随心所欲地买,贿赂,或有时候,击毙任何约束-只有在不可避免的危机以后,普京的崛起,才有了一个强有力的反对力量将寡头们的政治束缚打破。

      关键词(Tags): #休克疗法#俄国#戈尔巴乔夫#苏联通宝推:xiaobailong,

      本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
      • 家园 如果当初苏联没有采用跟中国相反的改革方法

        戈尔巴乔夫错误地改造社会主义的企图步骤 – 慢慢放松政治掌握一边继续紧抓计划经济 – 是一个客观的不该整么样改革的课程。

        不像中国那样让与计划经济平行的私人企业在共产党严格控制下逐步发展,苏联的崩溃和它指挥中心的拆卸相当于简单地剖出控制单元,让无脑的身体自己重新组建自己,完全变成了亚当史密斯自由主义的一个奇形怪状滴滑稽模仿体。

        突发奇想,如果当初苏联没有采用跟中国相反的改革方法,而是采用了和中国同样的改革方法,会有什么样的结果呢?

    • 家园 通过西方的瞳孔-俄国是整么被误解的

      失踪的章页 -对俄罗斯的个人看法-二十年以后

      Through Western Eyes – Russia Misconstrued

      通过西方的瞳孔-俄国是整么被误解的

      In Russia, even the past is unpredictable

      “在俄国,连历史都不能被预测”

      Rene De Obaldia

      (草蜢注:Rene De Obaldia是香港出生的法国剧作家和诗人)

      As I queued in Paris clutching a one-way ticket to Moscow, Russia circa 1997 seemed to offer infinite promise – adventure, exoticism, even some sex… cash too – and especially, an escape from the stultifying boredom and bureaucracy of old Europe into the wildest frontier of global finance.

      当我抓着去莫斯科的单程票在巴黎排队的时候,1997年的俄国像提供着无限的承诺-冒险,异国情调,甚至性交。。。还有现钞-特别是,在最疯狂的世界金融边陲去逃避老欧洲压抑的无聊和官僚主义。

      Only the blind or hopelessly retrograde could fail to see that this young country was throwing off the shackles of Communism, striding boldly into a brave new world.

      只有瞎子和没有希望的退步者才会看不到这个年轻的国度正在扔掉共产主义的锁链,勇敢地大步迈向美丽新世界。

      On the emerging markets debt desk in Paris, while extending bounteous repo credit to the “best” Russian banks, and brokering Soviet and Russian bonds to our moreadventurous clients, we had made sport of our obstructive but dim-witted compliance officers, filling our personal accounts with Russian bonds and equities.

      在巴黎的新兴市场债务服务台,在延长宽裕回购信贷,和向我们更冒险的客户经纪苏联和俄罗斯的债券的同时,我们取笑着我们乐于阻碍但机智缓慢的合规人员们,将我们自己的个人帐户中放满了俄国的债卷和股票。

      But the real action was on the ground in Moscow – and what did I have to lose?

      但真正的作为是在莫斯科-我又有什么可以失去的呢?

      Two weeks later, flagging down a gypsy cab on the Sadovoe Koltso for a ride to the investment conference at the Mezhdunarodnaya, a Soviet-era hearse pulled up, offering me a ride for a modest 30 roubles.

      两个星期以后,在Sadovoe Koltso大街打 “山寨”的士的时候,一辆苏联时代的殡车到来,向我提供了收费仅30卢布的服务。

      While the omen was initially lost upon me, that afternoon I was dragged out of yet another stultifying Gazprom presentation by my friend Adam, calling from London with the news that the Hong Kong market was melting down.

      这个预兆没有被我发觉,那天下午我就被我朋友亚当从又一个俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的呆滞演示中拖出来,他从伦敦打电话来告诉我香港股市完全雪崩了。

      “Adam”, I replied, “sorry to hear that – but why am I supposed to care? I’m at a Russia conference…” By the end of that afternoon, I had realized why I should care…

      “亚当”,我回答说,“很抱歉地听到这消息 - 但关我啥事啊? 我在俄国开会。。。” 在那下午结束之前,我就明白为什么我需要关心了。。。

      Great bubbles live in mortal terror of little termites – catalysts that ultimately trigger their demise.

      大泡沫总是生活在对小白蚁的死亡恐怖之中 - 那是他们死亡的最终催化剂。

      The Asian crisis was the pebble that triggered a Russian avalanche – a classical debt crisis terminating with refinance rates spiralling out of control; Russian financial markets went into a tailspin, ultimately crashing by more than 90%, as rates on

      government debt went ballistic, repeatedly cresting at well over 100% per annum. It seemed that I had bought myself a ring-side seat for the end of the world – but alas, that seat was well inside the ring!

      亚洲金融危机是造成俄国雪崩的小石头-一个经典的再融资利率失控的的债务危机;俄国金融市场被推向了深渊,最终崩溃到90%以上,当政府债卷利率完成了弹道导弹式滴上升,不止一次滴达到了100%的年利率。看起来,我给自己买了一张世界末日的环侧就座票 - 但问题是,我发现这座位完全在拳击场以内。

      关键词(Tags): #俄罗斯#金融危机

      本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
      • 家园 俄罗斯1998年金融崩溃

        亚洲金融危机是造成俄国雪崩的小石头-一个经典的再融资利率失控的的债务危机;俄国金融市场被推向了深渊,最终崩溃到90%以上,当政府债卷利率完成了弹道导弹式滴上升,不止一次滴达到了100%的年利率。看起来,我给自己买了一张世界末日的环侧就座票 - 但问题是,我发现这座位完全在拳击场以内。

        说俄罗斯金融崩溃是香港金融风暴引起的,这有点儿夸张了吧。当时香港政府的信用可没有崩溃。而且香港是1997年的事情。俄罗斯是1998年。中间相隔一年,也能联系上,这有点儿太牵强了。

        我的理解是,那帮金融大鳄1997年在香港闹了一场并无大的斩获。然后一帮金融炒家转战俄罗斯,所以在1997年把俄罗斯的资产全面推高,制造了大大的泡沫出来。这正是作者1997年去俄罗斯的原因和背景。所以从制造泡沫到引爆泡沫,这整个周期需要一个过程,所以才会有香港俄罗斯前后相差一年的事情。虽然也许是同一帮炒家,类似的手法,连续的行动,但是香港和俄罗斯的事情是彼此独立的,并没有一个导致另一个的必然联系。

        • 家园 当然97年亚洲金融危机还有一个原因

          也可能是真正的原因,就是本来所谓的亚洲小虎们是可以向四小龙腾飞那样照样子画葫芦,以廉价劳动力来换取资本投资,走向工业化的光明大道。 结果中国巨大的劳力市场对外开放了,小虾们就歇菜了。。。

          • 家园 97之前的中国抢不了亚洲小虎们多少饭碗

            我以前也相信这种说法,但是仔细一想就觉得不对了。

            中国上世纪90年代,情况并不是很好。抢不了亚洲小虎们多少饭碗。如果他们真有能力,或者产品真的廉价,市场空间还大得很。别的不说,想想中国2002年进入WTO之后,产能翻了多少?产品增加了多少?为什么这些产能没有被1997年之前的亚洲小虎们拿去?

            如果说全世界的产品空间是100的话,中国现在的产品空间是10,上世纪90年代中国只有1。为什么亚洲小虎们不能从另外的9里面拿些过去?或者从另外的99里面拿些过去?

            • 家园 97年以前,中国的劳力比小虎们还廉价。但最大区别是

              当时中国的股市市场不但不对外国人开放,根本就很小,不可能容积大量资金。中国的货币也是不能轻易转换的。和涌入东南亚的热钱不一样,外商在中国投资主要是以合资企业或外资直接投资的方式。

              热钱可以在键盘上手指一按的功夫流出,但外资在中国建造的工厂是不可能一下搬走的。

              如果,当时你是摩托罗拉的老总,要为公司的下20年在亚洲的发展计划。一方面有东南亚诸小国,人力资源和市场都很有限,劳工比中国还贵。一方面有中国,有雄厚而且廉价的人力资源,有广大拥有巨大潜力的国内市场。租地建厂也远远比地皮狂涨的东南亚便宜。 你会整样选择?

              当产业链在中国形成后,东南亚就更没希望了。

              • 家园 这就是区别啊

                热钱可以在键盘上手指一按的功夫流出,但外资在中国建造的工厂是不可能一下搬走的。

                这才是97年亚洲小虎们遭遇金融风暴的原因:热钱进出都太方便了,不搜刮你搜刮谁啊,不冲击你冲击谁啊?

                但是这和中国97年之前开放的市场没有任何关系。那时候中国外资规模还很小,并不会达到中国来了别人都没机会的地步。

        • 家园 作者本人当时就是西方资本在俄国的一个小尖兵

          他现在自己也是一个不大不小的金融鳄了。这篇文章可以看成是作为曾经”体制内“人的他写的回忆录和感想。金融界在短期内有没有人在幕后操纵,那是肯定的。也肯定有人在危机中大发横财。 但危机本身的产生却是另有缘由。97年亚洲金融危机的根源其实很简单。亚洲各国在资本(主要是外国资本)廉价的条件下,借了一屁股的债。 突然有人发现泰国不是下一个日本,连下一个小龙都不是。。。热流资本一窝蜂地逃离。。。当然有人可以说这本来就是一个圈套。

          这让俺想起最近,有位西方政治评论家,脸不红,心不跳,非常严肃地说美国的房地产/信用泡沫都是中国的罪过。因为中国拼命的买美国债卷,让美国人民患上了享受低利率高消费生活的毒瘾。因为中国政府恶毒地将资本廉价循环回美国,让天真无邪的美国人民没有任何选择,只有去狂炒房地产泡沫,去超高消费。 这种逻辑是非常强大,非常让人无语滴。

    • 家园 失踪的章页 -对俄罗斯的个人看法-二十年以后

      西方,西方媒体,中国,俄国,智者。

      作者序

      The Missing Chapter –

      A Personal View of Russia–Twenty Years After

      失踪的章页 -

      对俄罗斯的个人看法-二十年以后

      Every so often, one of my readers enquires as to why I do not write a book. The answer seems obvious enough: it has already been done.

      常常有读者问我为什么我不写一本书。回答很简单:书早就有了。

      The libraries are groaning under the weight of millions of them – in our native France, everyone who can manage rudimentary verb conjugation feels compelled to bequeath his opus to an expectant world. With that many writers, who has the time to

      read?

      图书馆都在百万雄书的压力下呻吟了-在我们的法国,每个会运用动词的人都觉得必须将自己的名著遗留于世。有这么多的作家,谁有时间去读书啊?

      And besides, it has all been said already – and better – by Proust, by Borges, by Kafka, by the Great Russian classic authors of the 19th Century. What could I hope to add?

      再说了,所有该说的都被说了-而且还说的更好 - 被Proust, 被 Borges, 被 Kafka,还有19世纪的伟大俄罗斯经典作家们。我又能加什么呢?

      Yet when invited to contribute a chapter to a book being put together by one local financial institution, collectively authored by 20 (ah… make that 19…) of that first generation of expats involved in the creation of Russia’s first approximations to a capital market, and who were then mad enough to stick around as it all unravelled, crashed and burned (but to reincarnate in

      something rather less surrealistic), it seemed a very worthy undertaking.

      但当被邀请去为当地金融机构编辑的,20个(啊。。。改成19个。。。)创立建设俄国第一个近似金融市场的东东,而且癫狂得在其崩溃(不过演化为了没有以前那么超现实主义的东东)以后继续坚守的第一代外籍人士,集体创作的一本书,提供一章节的时候,我觉得值此一举。

      I did caution them that my chapter was likely to be rather spicy; one of the wonderful things about Russia is that total absence of political correctness which we enjoy.

      我告戒过他们我的章节会很辣;俄罗斯的美好之处之一就是她丝毫没有一点我们享受的政治正确性。

      The story recaps some of the highlights of my 15 years before the mast – amidst the madness that was early post-Soviet Moscow, or at least what I can remember of it (no one who fully participated in the Great Party at the Edge of the Apocalypse made it out without sacrificing a few brain cells along the way…).

      这个故事重温了一下我在旗杆下15年的亮点-在苏联刚刚瓦解后的莫斯科疯狂之中,至少我还能记住的部分(没有人能够在完全参与了举办在世界末日边缘的伟大宴会之后而不牺牲几个脑细胞的)。

      While I had imagined that I could jot it all down in an afternoon, I ultimately spent days, weeks, writing and re-writing what was meant to be an intensely personal account… an ego trip if you will, but that is what was requested of me.

      本来我以为我可以在一天下午之内全部写下来,但最终我花了整天,整星期,写和重写一部特别个人的故事。。。一个自我之旅,不过这就是我被要求写的。

      All in vain! My foray into the literary world was to fall victim to the very cowardice and group-think I have long decried in the Western media.

      全部白费了! 我在文学世界的第一个探险式进军马上就被我长期以来声讨的西方媒介中的懦弱和集团思考给毁了。

      To make a long story short – while the initial drafts were received with great enthusiasm by the Moscow sponsor, when they forwarded the finalized version to London, the response from the publisher neatly summarized everything that is corrupt, cowardly, bent and cloyingly hypocritical about British Media and their coverage of Russia.

      把长事短说-虽然初稿被莫斯科的发起人热烈欢迎,但当他们将定稿送往伦敦的时候,出版商的回应很干净利落地总结了所有英国媒介以及他们对俄国的报道的腐败,懦弱,曲折和狡猾的虚伪。

      According to the UK publisher, to refer to convicted criminals – as “criminals”; to bent ministers – as “bent”; to purported journalists engaged in nothing more than propaganda-for-pay – as “propagandists” (thus avoiding a more colourful term) detracted from the credibility of my story.

      根据英国出版商,将被定了罪的罪犯称为“罪犯”;将奸邪的官员称为“奸邪” ; 将名义上的新闻工作者却从事于收钱宣传的记者称为“宣传员”(这样避免了更丰富的词汇, 草蜢注:这个更丰富的词汇应该是Prostitute,及小姐,也就是现代中文中所说的“妓者”)将减损我故事的可信性。

      In short, he demanded that my baby be gutted like an eel!

      简单地说,他要求将我的婴儿像鳗鱼一样被挖出内脏。

      Excerpts from his reptilian letter (highlighting is my own):

      他恶心的信件中的摘录(黑体是我标出的):

      “… I am now attaching an edited version of the chapter by Eric Kraus. As discussed, as well as a more general edit, I have toned down the accusations and removed names where I think there might be problems. I believe the substantive points being made by the author are still there. More importantly I believe that the points being made are clearer and stronger for having been made less personal and more impartial.

      … Being sued for libel is perhaps unlikely… What is much more likely is not being taken seriously – and that would be a pity because this chapter has the potential to make a valuable contribution with its firsthand/inside knowledge. Why might it not be taken seriously? Because personal accusations, whether true or not, will diminish the authority of the work (and of the book as a whole). There is no need to name names in quite the way that is proposed here. The same substantial points can be better made without this…”

      “我现在将附加一个编辑后的Eric Kraus的文章。根据我们谈过的,和作为一般的普通编辑,我在一些我认为会造成问题的部分淡化了各项指控和除去了实名。我相信作者的实质性要点还在。更重要的是我相信这些要点在被修改为少一点个人化多一点客观化以后变为更清楚更强大了。。。

      被以诽谤起诉可能性不大。。。但更可能的是不被当真-那会是一个遗憾因为这章带有内部消息的文章有潜力做出很有用的贡献。为什么会不被当真?因为关于个人的指控,不管真假,都会会减少这部作品的权威性(以及整本书)。这里没有必要将实名列出来。同样的要点可以不用这些而被提出。。。”

      Needless to say, T&B cleans such folk out from between his toes. I certainly do not intend to be censored by some pitiable denizen of a dying civilization that still imagines itself to rule the (air)waves. He – and his ilk – are fated to drown while clinging desperately to the status quo, as it disappears beneath the waves of history.

      不用说,T&B会将这种人从他的脚丫里清洗出来。 我绝对不会让一些在一个濒临死亡却幻想自己仍然统治着(广播频道)波浪的文明中苟且偷生的可怜虫和谐我。他-和他的一类 - 命中注定了将被淹没却在拼命地抓住现状不放,正当其(现状)正在历史的波澜中消失。

      But – dear reader – let it be you who draws their own conclusions as to what adds – and what detracts – from the story! I have restored the London redactions, highlighted in blue. Do please tell whether you think it better with or without!

      不过-亲爱的读者-请你自己决定什么应该从故事中被补充-什么应该被减去!我恢复了伦敦的删节,用蓝色突出。请告诉我你以为它们是有好还是不有好!

      In fact, I would recommend that you buy the book, print my chapter, and just paste it in. I would be deeply gratified to find my little literary cripple in the company of the stories of my peers from those best – and worst – of times.

      事实上,我推荐你买这本书,将我的章节印出来,然后粘贴回去。我将会深感欣慰地发现我的文学小跛子站在我同行的故事之中-那些从最好-和最坏-的时代出来的故事。

      Given the effort which went into this Quixotic undertaking – I would strongly encourage all to forward the following pages around to anyone who might be interested/amused/outraged – or best, some combination of all three.

      既然我已经将很大的努力加入了这个唐吉诃德式的事业-我强烈地鼓励所有人将下列文章传送给任何会有兴趣/会被逗乐/会感到愤慨-或最好,会感到所用三项结合的人。

      关键词(Tags): #俄罗斯#苏联瓦解通宝推:月下,xiaobailong,

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