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主题：【讨论】2020美国大选讨论楼 -- 笑看风雨
家园 很专业。留个记号 家园 民主党内他能出线吗？ 家园 估计只能是拜登 桑德斯有上次“个人服从组织”的先例，没法猜
另外一个杨安泽，楼主在其它贴表示是个笑话，但我很看好，只是不相信美国选举的真实性。
民主党其他人出来只能给特郎普陪练。
- 复 估计只能是拜登
家园 在民主党选民看来，杨安泽就是个笑话 普通民主党选民都是拿他当笑料的：那个Chinese Nerd，看学数学搞编程把人弄傻了吧。
家园 你能提供点资料吗 我只看油管网民评论，好得史无前例，连插科打诨都极少极少，其实我是觉得非常不可思议，油管网民评论至少得插科打诨，他自己演讲时说排名第4，也没见人辟谣。民主党组织当杨安泽是笑话，这很可能，普通选民也当杨安泽是笑话，你能提供点资料吗？
这些交流是给墙内河友参考的，多说两句。“书呆子nerd”传统上几乎是负面词，但近来有正名的催势，因为美国学生的理工水平快成国际笑话了，尤其白人的自尊心很受伤，而美国只剩下高科技一个自豪点了，谁家孩子出个nerd是很光荣的事，chinese nerd形象也跟着沾光，所以，选民内心笑话chinese有一点点可能，笑话chinese nerd我是不大相信。
- 复 你能提供点资料吗
家园 谁家出个nerd是光荣的事？老哥你对美国有什么误解 美国这边nerd可是个绝对的贬义词，没人会尊重一个nerd。nerd有时也会拿nerd自嘲，但这可绝不是什么好词。
至于杨安泽，我们同事间会闲聊聊起民主党的初选，我们同事几乎是一水的民主党支持者（而且他们都是STEM硕博，本身在美国人看来就是一群nerd），谈起杨基本上就是嘲笑加讽刺。
其实最简单的就是看民调，Donald Trump虽然在2015年也被人嘲笑加讽刺，但他的民调可是实实在在排第一的。举个例子，2015年7月30日，著名的Quinnipiac University Poll,Donald Trump排名共和党第一（20%），领先排名第二的威斯康辛州长Soctt Walker （13%），第3的Jeb Bush （10%）。
July 30, 2015 - Trump Tops Republican Pack By Wide Margin, Quinnipiac University National Poll Find
四年之后的今天，同一家机构的民调，Biden排名民主党第一，拿到34%，领先第2位的Elizabeth Warren（15%），其后是Harris (12%)、Sanders（11%）、Buttigieg（6%）。至于杨安泽，只拿到2%。
通宝推：老老狐狸,桥上,家园 明白了，谢谢！剩下的河友自己分析判断 明白了，谢谢！剩下的河友自己分析判断
上点原始料，油管的视频的网民评论。一个是杨安泽，一个是拜登。杨安泽一片赞扬，连插科打诨都极少极少极少，而且个个发言有内容，不装逼地说，这情况本人没见过，什么赞扬话都有，“我宁愿不要1000刀，如果他能当选”。如果油管反映不真实，只有一个理论上的可能，粉丝团給力。
拜登的评论是另一个极端，不过他出线很正常，毕竟这是有组织的事。
杨安泽前两天电视辩论后，上电视台访谈。
I was impressed that FOX let Yang speak so freely!
I like him way better than the supposed front runners.
Yang is the reason i switched for the first time ever to a Democrat. So i could vote for him in the primaries. He is also the first candidate i have ever donated to.
Andrew Yang actually has really good ideas if people took the time to research them. Heaven forbid you look outside your own party lines.
If this dude can unite a YouTube comment section, he can unite a country.
Can we just vote him in already! Why are we wasting any more time!?
Big fan of him. I'm sick of everybody hating each other. This guy crosses party lines all the time and has respectful conversations, and is in general treated well by the republicans interviewing him. In fact, it's a a lot of the "woke" crowd that treats him the worst. He has long forms with Ben Shapiro, Dave Rubin, and Joe Rogan that are worth checking out.
I would 100% sacrifice my freedom dividend in exchange for a Yang Presidency. His human centered capitalism idea could fundamentally change the world.
WOW , GREAT INTERVIEW !!! Yang has my VOTE !
I like how great policy and competent communication of ideas is the basis of his campaign. There's a reason why he's attractive to both the right and the left.
Great interview with an impressive candidate. Thanks FOX!
Let me just say this. I am Democratic. However, I don't hate Republicans! And you shouldn't hate me. I want us to find common ground, and elect a president who genuinely cares about everyone. Andrew Yang is innovative, brilliant, kind, and doesn't fall into identity politics. He is like a breath of fresh air.
Funny how Yang and Gabbard ( the ONLY decent candidates ) are shunned by the Democrat Establishment, ignored by MSM and suppressed by Google.
Andrew Yang is only going to keep rising in the polls.
Andrew is awesome!!! His Freedom Dividend would help Americans on both sides! Not left, not right, but forward!
You know, I dismissed this guy as a hack, but after watching those extended interviews, this guy makes too much sense
I'm voting Yang if he makes it to my state.
拜登上个月的讲话视频 Former VP Joe Biden delivers remarks on foreign policy | ABC News
Let’s talk about the billion dollars real estate deal John Biden son got in china
I'm gone I'm gone
"I know foreign policy.
In fact, I made millions from it..."
This guy isn't even good reading off a teleprompter
Joe Biden is very ill, all joking aside he needs to retire and rest. 1 year of tough campaigning and 4 years of presidency would be too much for him. Hillary is lucky she didnt win, the 4 years might have killed her. It's a Democrat curse.
We’re not going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe Joey.
Lots of words that say very little. Vague criticisms against Trump that leaves one thinking, "What does that mean?"
OMG. This guy looks and sounds like he needs a nap real bad. I don’t think his dentures fit either.
Holy shit, the applause at 39:15 is the first time i was made aware of the audience. His first applause in the speech?! 😂
This guy has strung together lines used from the last 50 years of candidates. He stammers and slurs his way through a volume of words that 1) are not true, and 2) mean absolutely nothing!!! No Joke...WTF??? Try assembling any thoughts off what Biden said. Even the audience is wondering WTF!!!
He already looks exhausted
Trump Bad. We get it already.
Coming from the architect of the Obama Doctrine; keep redrawing that line in the sand, turn your back on your allies, let your Diplomats die horrible deaths in Benghazi, demand Israel go back to pre-'68 borders, pave the way for Iran becoming a nuclear power -- and when all else fails, fly in billions of dollars to our sworn enemies. Once again, Democrats projecting their own massive failures on others.
This pathetic speech confirms that Biden is a GLOBALIST - if he even understands what he was reading. He really comes off like a clueless, flubering puppet who has no idea what he's saying and @ 42:50 actually asks "WHAT AM I DOING?"
WOW! This joker has been in government for 40 years and accomplished nothing good.
wow Biden is low energy. This is embarrassing. I've seen Biden give speeches when he was younger. He is a shadow of his former himself
This guy is too touchy feely to little girls.
Sums up this whole speech.
Biden looks so much older than Bernie
31:40 his vision must be failing him
From the man that gave money to Iran so they could supply weapons to known terrorist groups. I think Joe better not stand on his policies.
Trying to rewrite his and Obama's many failed foreign policies, and bad deals. 40+ years in politics, and NOW, he's going to fix things. Just another Lily pad in the swamp...
GLOBALISM!
Blah blah blah Charlottesville blah blah blah Russia blah blah blah
Joe wants to destroy Charlottesville and Helsinki? Not cool dude I’m from cville ! But all jokes aside this guy has marbles In his Mouth and brain 🧠 now China is a problem ? I thought they couldn’t pick rice cause they were wearing hoodies??? Hi
He has Kuru.
This is sad Joe. They do not even call you a Presidential candidate. "Former VP"
Black Americans no voting this ain't for us
Anesthesia and pain meds from all of his plasdick surgery probably contributed to his brain rotting.
At least we know he can read! Bah bah bah bah
通宝推：桥上,家园 我能理解你为什么喜欢他 他的主张本质就是生产力高度发达情况下试图保证全民无条件获得基本生活资料，朝共产主义迈进了一步嘛，其实他的想法也是有一些道理的。
但问题是我们在分析谁在明年大选中能选上，显然他是没有一点戏的。不能让个人的喜好蒙蔽了眼睛。
家园 恰恰相反 给多少钱能看出他的政治倾向。比如每月一个亿，就是共产党（事实上的均贫富）。每月一千，其实就是取消了低保，等于补贴雇主，是共和党理念。一个低端的辛苦工作，假如月入1200，而吃低保800，那这个劳动其实只值400块。发钱后，是不劳动得到1000，劳动得到2200，这个劳动值1200。这对那些吃低保的黑墨三当然是沉重打击。当然没文化还嘲笑math nerd的他们看不看得出来是另一回事。
民主党如果让杨上是最有可能打败川普的。但是，就跟老佛爷任用共产党能打败八国联军，她也绝对不会用一样。
家园 你要是误会了我再讲一次吧， 你要是误会了我再讲一次吧，我的意思是，杨安泽深得选民／观众好评，但也出不了线。他被刷屏的好评有一个可能，只有他的粉丝去浏览视频和发言评论。这样吧，你从他们单独的视频找一条评论，黑杨安泽的，或者赞扬拜登的，最好找一条支持你的看法“杨是Chinese Nerd笑料”，你同事或同学的发言可不算数哦。找到了咱继续讨论。
你什么动机我无所谓，我讨论的动机是为墙内河友提供参考信息。多年前在朋友圈我有个习惯改不了，反对用个人观点作为共识的暗示，诸如“美国连空气都是甜的”，声明是个人看法这没问题，但用一种“地球人都懂”的方式传达就不好了，又例如你说“普通民主党选民都是拿他当笑料的：那个Chinese Nerd”，你同事就说你同事，为什么要用“普通民主党选民”，这信息距离还是很大的。
我习惯的介绍方式是这样。杨和拜登，好比马云和那谁，一个能说会道，一个出场需要人搀着。问“每人1000刀是不是搞社会主义？”，杨答“不是，社会主义经济是这样这样的，每人1000刀哪算得上社会主义，我搞的是人文资本主义”，问“你华裔身份和形象是否一个（不利）因素？”，杨答“不是，美国人选总统主要看能给他们带来什么，我的身份对他们来说是次要的。”，头头是道。而拜登，是三个70后里状态最差的，我看了两个视频，一个出现“我讲哪啦？”，另一个出现“你问我吗？”，后面还有一年竞选活动，4年总统工作，无关政治因素是个人都要联想他身体条件，我看到的视频评论，一半黑他，一半让他退休回家。即便如此，如果最后人民日报公布，民调马云2％，那谁50％，那谁出线，一点都不奇怪，与你主题的全局分析并不矛盾。
题外话，本人大小选举积极投票，为的是增加一张华人投票，而且绝大多数时候勾“路人甲”，人一家9口，才得5张选票多可怜（参见笑话楼帖子），与喜欢谁不喜欢谁没半毛钱关系，好比杨安泽的口号，“不左，不右，一切向前看（not left， not right， forward）”。另外悄悄给你透露一下，我现在每月领一千二，杨安泽改一千，我还得亏2百，我多大脑洞会喜欢他，“个人的喜好蒙蔽了眼睛”从何说起呢。
家园 你是暗示民调被操控，黑杨安泽捧Biden，我不认同 我是认为民调基本还是偏差不大的，要是杨那么受欢迎民调应该体现出来。否则为啥上次大选Trump在各项民调里总排共和党第一，最后确实也是他在共和党出线，尽管谁都能看出来共和党想尽一切办法阻止他？Jeb Bush为啥不黑掉他？他一个纽约3流商人，在共和党内毫无根基，Jeb Bush这种黑他还不跟玩似的么。
再举个例子，2015年夏天在我们这midwest能看到不少车上贴着Trump的Sticker，现在2019年，Yang的sticker我一个都没见过。莫非他的选民都隐形了？
你要是非说杨安泽讨普通民主党选民喜欢，那我只能说你对民主党理解可能有偏差。Sanders和Biden是代表了民主党的两个主要派别，至于杨还是太小众了。
家园 下一轮辩论资格，民调支持度的门槛杨还未过 下一轮辩论资格，民调支持度的门槛杨还未过，可他自己和媒体貌似稳过了，装没装不晓得，反正那2％一句话的事，民调要看，也当不得真。
家园 我绝对外行，兄弟有兴趣讨论就勉为其难捧捧场 1。我坚信美国一切都操控，而且总体上我拥护操控，这么大个国家怎能不操控。民调这玩意儿，人畜无害，不犯法，没代价，更得操控，只是你不晓得哪回真，哪回假，老床从头到尾到今天都在抱怨自己是受害者，2016年大选的民调才真是载入史册的笑料，人家自己都出报告了（连接在下面）。
2。对杨用不着专门黑，黑不黑没区别。我上面意思是，有机会接触和了解的选民对杨（几乎）100％好评，已经是奇观了，但人数毕竟很小，与你说的没见过宣传不矛盾，我也没见过，全国来说基本就是个路人甲，还在混脸熟，一个体户，要钱没钱，拼爹爹不给力，最大的场子是两场电视辩论，100个P民没几个看节目，我不是因为上西西河也不会留意。说不定目前成绩已经超出他本人预期了。
3。我的印象，美国选民看候选人很多因素，竞选纲领和竞选表现固然重要，另外选民有自己的政治感情或情绪，没利益倒贴我也要选他，好比拜登，站那啥不做就像“党和国家领导人”，别人很难追赶。
4。要说我本人的兴趣，本来对桑得斯有点兴趣，他和他的粉丝搞的有点真政治味道，可惜上回被“个人服从组织”一把，而且年纪又长了4岁，78了都，我也提不起多大精神看了。
A group of major pollsters just released an autopsy report to explain why the polls were such a disaster in 2016 (为何2016年民调一塌糊涂)
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hillary-clinton-why-polls-wrong-2017-5
罗嗦半天，其实最大看点是拜登都颤颤巍巍了，上级是不是计划好到时候出线一个年富力强，还是打算给特郎普酬宾送礼。
家园 不过16年特朗普上台 完全出乎美国统治阶级预料，是一次操控失败。
这次民主党这边，沃伦实际上已经与拜登不相上下。沃伦的纲领与桑德斯对资本家的危险都很大，在我印象里美国大概过去半个世纪没有过这么“左”的纲领。
所以现在资产阶级有些紧张（民主党本来就是金融和高科技资本家的政治工具），培养 Buttigieg 做后备。后者在艾奥瓦州已经快赶上沃伦了。
现在变数都还很大，头几个州预选下来，格局还可能大变