主题：【讨论】第三次世界大战可能并不远矣 -- aiguille

一战前，只要有足够的大炮，把对方挡在几十公里以外就可以保证本土不被袭击。

到二战时，要能把对方挡在上千公里以外才行。

现在，除非能把对方逐出地球，否则不能保证不会遭到五大国之一的核报复。

他不肯下葬，要落叶归根的想法是对的，现在，他已经是抗日的正面角色了。在台湾，他死后都要被人清算，在大陆，反而理解他的人多。

他如果葬在慈溪，造福当地百姓。

政府直接印了花在西部建设就是了，对老百姓而言效果一样的。

不知如何就成了不要东边了。

1. All fiat currency nations have the same problem. Slow inflation is a common inherent feature. China is not free from it. Fiat system, a break from gold standard pioneered by Franklin Roosevelt, actually makes the world better and safer.

2. If we give up fiat currency system, there will be global economic contraction and deep job loss--> thus your story sounds very likely.

The current mild slow inflation is a well-tested system rebooting tool. In 1970s, it helped the global economy and it will do the same trick again.

US debt level is exaggerated. Most liabilities are contingent liabilities--coming from medicare promises. America has slowly shifting pension responsibility from public firms and state to individuals. Fiscal trouble from pension side is the lightest in States than other European nations. In continental Europe, that's a ticking time bomb.

America's main trouble is Medicare D. At certain point, it will get a dramatic cut.

WW3 will be great. It will start first in Europe and Asia. Because Europeans are going to lose money printing priviledge attached to reserve currency status and Asians do not have that.

WAR STARTS USUALLY NOT BECAUSE OF HATRED, BUT BECAUSE OF SCARCITY OF RESOURCES FOR a better life.

North Americans can always shut down their doors and live their easy life with rich natural resources there. America and Canada are effectively one nation and Alberta oil is more than enough to support the continent for 100 years.

毕竟在不同的环境下长了几十年，一些用词就是个习惯而已，不带那么多政治意义。我身为内地人都觉得很多内地人有时候太过敏感于一些口头细节，楼主的立场很鲜明也很理智，这就够了，支持他说的话不需要先考虑他是哪里人

最大的毁灭者，最终变成了和平的守护神。自从有了核以后，人类历史上首次出现了“毁灭力”过剩的问题，在没有出现与之相应的防御力之前，很难发生大规模战争。

從博弈論的角度來說，戰爭也只是一種高規格的試探行為。哪怕是在敵對交戰中的雙方，不到最後也不會拿出王牌。

但即使到最後，會不會拿出核武器，也是個問題。

所以熱戰可以在不碰觸雙方底線的前提之下，無限制的進行。

就好比最近的東北亞情勢，美國就是看準了不會超過中國忍耐極限，才可以這樣佔便宜。

從二戰結束後到現在，世界上是不缺乏大規模毀滅性武器的，也包括生化兵器等。但除了日本以外，根本沒有其他使用在實戰上的紀錄。

所以我認為大規模熱戰的可能性不是沒有。說來可能有點荒謬，但不動用毀滅性武器，可能是非理性戰爭中唯一的理性。

汉奸、间谍太多了，人家知道你底牌。

只说一点。美国能否真正封闭起来。

封闭，意味着美国从全世界回家。资源产品输入，人才输入，技术输入全完蛋。大概只有老墨还能偷越边境了。不过这样封闭的形态，给整个美国经济带来的打击，同样会是致命的。随之而来得失业，就业，财政破产，哪里来的轻松自然的幸福生活啊。除非你给他个重建门类齐全的轻重工业体系的缓冲时间。这件事情，奥巴马想干。可是美国人，或者因为太懒，或者因为太聪明，干不了啊....

阿尔伯塔？我记得那地方和中国也有油砂协议的。这个蛋糕，也不是一家能独吞的阿。

顺便说一句，温和通胀，对于“集权“国家和“民主“国家，效果是不同的。有的地方，是后果。有的地方，是工具。不管是自愿的还是被迫的。

中国早就宣布过不首先使用核武器，不对无核国家使用核武器，但谁也不敢保证在紧要关头不会改变想法。

我觉得二战结束之后人类社会逐渐取得两个重要进步。

1，摈弃暴力。个人或团体，多数不再认为战争是正常的斗争手段。

2，联合国制度保证了大国地位，缓和了大国矛盾。

所以我感觉至少在一两代人以内，如果上述任一现状不出现逆转，则从前那样的世界大战是很难发生的。

you need to understand the mentality of Canadians, esp., those Albertans. I call this Canadian inferiority complex.

Currently, all major oil pipelines link Albertan oilfields to America only. One serving the Asian market is still under construction and will take time to reach the pacific coast (not through Vancouver, but through a port in the Northern region of BC).

Trust me, Albertans will not give good stuff to chinese, even if you pay the premium over market prices.

随之而来得失业，就业，财政破产，哪里来的轻松自然的幸福生活啊。

--first, America established high tariffs against European manufacturing products for most of the 1850-1890s. It welcomed capital, talents, NOT manufactured industrial goods. Protection and barriers established America's manufacturing strength.

The post-1870 2nd revolution has many technologies originated from America. Less and less need for foreign technology (aka. European technology). No need to worry about foreign tech, because smart people/money know where/how to flee risk. The WWII experience is a perfect example: America reaped the top talents from all of the Europe.

Canada adopted protective policies later. It was never seriously fully industrialized under the British empire and had been the dumping yard of British manufactured goods. For long time, English Canadians perceived themselves as royal Queen's subjects and Britons. Some local elites even cried and pleaded to the Crown when UK decided to let Canada go independent. Industrial polices changed only after MacDonald was put there as the prime minister (he was highly respected in Canada--face on the Canadian bills) who consolidated various canadian dominions and set up common tariffs against Europe.

The most industrialized region of Canada are Ontario, then Quebec--but Quebec was fading out fast.

In summary, my points.

1. close the door--not to foreign talents, but to foreign manufactured goods. It was practised before.

2. America did not need Asian engineers (from China and India) that much. The boom of IT industry created a wrong impression. Actually in various fields, esp., outside IT, I often observe that the top scientists are still Americans and Europeans. Asians compete on the cheap and hard-work basis and mainly fill in the middle-tier in various research institutions.

I am Asian too, so just speak the truth, with no offense.

3. China paid premium price, but Canadians are not giving the best oil properties to Chinese firms. There is implicit alliance between the Albertan and American elites.

Australians paid premium prices for Potash--even the deal from their Anglo brother was still killed. Do you think Steve Harper will give Canadian's high-quality resources to communists from Red China (of course, China is a pure capitalist nation, but it is not perceived in this way at all in Canada)?

Canadians (excluding Quebecors) are American's brothers in culture/language.

In period of global turmoil, it is economic dependence, blood, geopolitical national interests, and culture that will honor treaty, not some contracts signed between non-trusting parties. Fiat money will be trash. Gold might be the only tool to settle purchases.