主题：2nd wave of European trouble -- parishg

Starting from this Tuesday, trouble from Italian gov. bonds have spread to the bonds of Netherlands, France, Belgium and Austria. Several eastern European nations have trouble in containing their national debt rate.

The European "Titanic" is now full of holes: the blowout of Spanish gov. bond yield could be the newspaper headline at any moment, let alone the trouble from Italy and any probable new bombs from Greece.

Thursday's U.S. stock market is quite interesting...

1.35，这个位子我总觉得不符合欧美的实力对比。实际上除了核心，周边的国家都烂掉了（意大利可能没想象的那么烂，但是也不行了），也就是法德瑞士加荷兰，法国的利率也彪了。

本人洗耳恭听。

个人现在觉得市场已经又是阴谋，又是阳谋，够乱，听说Paulson liquid了1/3的金子仓位，不知真假了。

兄台有时间的时候，请讲讲欧元区危机和美股大盘的关系。我之前猜想那些买了国债的钱不是该到美国来投资下么，怎么美股掉头有往下了？

当然最近这些日子应该又是美元流动性稀缺的时候了，刚看到一句话：有钱的时候买金子避险，没钱的时候卖金子攒钱。另外，1 month libor从八月份开始涨了1/3。但是我又觉得金子和流动性没有必然的联系，至少1 month LIBOR年初相对比较紧张的时候金子也在上升，也许和利比亚有关？

message.

My first-floor message is clear: avoid stocks or even short stocks.

I could not believe that you still long stocks when crisis is just emerging now...

I mean the Euro/USD exchange rate.

哈哈，欧洲债券带着欧美跑，欧美带着股市跑。。。

just the trouble in Europe is deepening.

It is spreading to non-PIIGs nations. New fire is emerging in Eastern Europe too.

Expect more write-offs on the books of various European banks.

请勿见笑，多多指教！

一直观察欧洲情况，七月底以来股市剧烈震荡，主要是欧洲所致。我自己参与股市主要是退休账户，只能单边做多，所以慢慢吃进了高beta的小型股，地产，新兴市场基金。到上月底，都有些利润了，又减了仓位。我弄了一个很粗糙的模型，主要根据均线与升降速度判断进离场，当然还要看宏观面，如现在欧债，到目前为止，还算可以。

现在我的看法是：看空欧，看多美，至少到明年初，美股上升机会大于下降，所以我准备再拿出portfolio的5%，逢低吃进高beta的小型股，过年左右再相机出场。如果赔了，觉得也有限，因为按美股规律，这一段大跌机会不大。大不了原来利润又吐出去罢了。兄台看法如何？

I didn't long or short any stocks, except for a penny stock, which I bought many years ago when it was not a penny stock :).

My lost was in forex market.

I just wonder what do you mean when you say

两个月前分批吃进了小型股(相当于RUSSELL2000指数，IWM)，目前为止约有近10%的利润，上得有点快，趋势也许还会继续，但我不管了，按原方案先撤再说，相信今后还有机会的。

欧洲还会继续有事吧？掌握得好，其实对我等散户是机会。兄台有空能否继续写写今年的大体展望及操作思路？谢谢！

Happy Year of Dragon!

ECB action.

Fed Reserve has run out of bullet and only thing it can say is: 0% interest rate for another one more year.

ECB is now effectively doing QE now in the European market and its spillover effect lifts all equity market due to new liquidity injection into the global market (yes, carry trade is helping everyone).

But ECB's approach has fundamental problem and can backfire in many unepxected ways.

2012 is a technical trading year: you buy when the market is oversold and sell when everyone is too optimistic. Just take advantage of the swing.

Volatility will be back sooner or late.