主题：煮酒论雄(28)：RMBs -- 本嘉明

新进化=dynamically shaking out players, with capital/energy to be re-allocated more efficiently, a very brutal/"try by error" way for humanity of capitalism.

losers are not going to really "buried alive" in today's much more civilized (as a result of much more balanced distribution of nuclear power, obviously) world, they are just going to become "党外群众"国家, 打工赚小钱 for winners as "党领导"国家 making big money.

肯定还有其他用意

kind of like the way Japan got treated, by US, but again, today's world=a nuclear weapon equilibrium world, no more "hot" war.

经典战略战术, 杀气腾腾, 歼灭战歼灭人心.

and we all know how Mao treated his political prisoners like Liu and Lin.

you have to do it that way, period, no mercy.

now days, 往死里打=make you work much harder, making much less $.

那我们该怎么办？目前的战略是否得当？

就是：既不鸟7%，也不鸟TPP。两边都取其精华，去其糟粕。

不鸟7%，就是除了那些“长远的国计民生效益确实明显”的基建项目，其他能缓建则缓建，劳动人口失业就拿低保（暂时建立一个全国失业保障金暂行制度，先管3年）；从国外套一些资金回来，充实银行。

不鸟TPP，就是“上海自贸区”继续办，但不设时间表，阻力消除了条件成熟了就跨一步，不要受TPP进程的牵制。

1.

TG/china Inc. is on 春药上瘾 path

7%=not 春药 anymore

so, TPP=春药/I改革2

then 土地流转=春药/I改革3..

then...

2.

"曾在天津当过兵的美军“知华派”名将Ridgway刚上任第8集团军司令，通过分析战斗记录，敏锐地察觉了中国军队的弱点，那就是他总结出来的所谓“礼拜攻势”。因为后勤薄弱，中国军队的持续攻势不会超过一个礼拜，Ridgway找到了反击中国军队攻势的有效方法，那就是节节阻击防御一周，然后投入重兵反击。"

3.

磨洋工=最好,最不可行

what to do?

because TG/china is already on 春药上瘾 path, almost passed the point of no return, DR L: let swap TG 春药 into "USA洋春药+TG春药"=joint venture/和平演变...

4.

Uncle Sam, well, if you TG guys want to come over and settle in my backyard....

this piece may be worth of coping it here again, and sorry for violating the rule of ccthere.com.

中印人海战术: 山寨USA, and the possible USA strategy

1.

it is obviously challenging to US, such as india 山寨 us pharmaceutical, and it really hurts US pharmaceutical's R&D incentives & its business models;

山寨 as some form of knowledge/technology transfer is almost "legal", regardless, and very difficult if not impossible to stop;

fundamentally and long term, as 大山猫 commented on this 長尾理論, it is really in the 長尾 world where USA hangs on in terms of keeping its leadership position.

Asian in general and Chinese in particular, are not a 長尾 society, in terms of thinking, mentality and culture, etc.

the long tail concept: for example, in china, you are largely either 毛左 or 公知 when looking at world, in reality & particularly outside of china, the much bigger "volume/profit" and more colorful world is in the long tail, where 毛左=0 & 公知=0, how can Chinese "井底之蛙" of "either 毛左 or 公知" 看见 and 明白这个"长尾世界"?

it is very challenging for a nation of almost 单色谱 (reinforced by TG's brainwashing) to comprehend a 广色谱 outside world, and to innovate and to produce for the long tail world of 广色谱 is even more challenging

2.

"就長尾理論示意圖來看，圖表縱軸為「人气」，圖表橫軸為「產品」。該理論分析讀出，商業經營者應該反向思考，不再只是集中精神於前百分之20的主要產品內容，而是應該注意百分之80的「長尾巴」。簡言之，企業應思考怎樣提供一個將不同種類商品集合成大市場的平台，而這解決方法最好方式就是提供Web2.0相關的網路平台。該分析也指出滿足開發中國家與未開發國家眾多人口的商品需求亦也可能創造巨大利潤與商業規模，但關鍵在於是否能夠利用網路科技來營造幾乎無庫存成本的世界，否則實際執行仍有利基市場過小，商品過多種類的問題"

obviously, with google, fb, amazon, etc, USA has already almost "monopolized" 長尾 commerce platform, "lnkd" on human talents, "nflx" on entertainment.

3.

potentially & theoretically, these 長尾 companies with emerging AI technology can even model, manipulate or influence significantly 意识形态 or opinion formation of the people to some extent, or likely us "nsa" is already doing research in that direction, to face the long term challenge of 中印人海战术, on top of white's traditional trick of dividing "yellow" and conquering, etc

4

possible future AI/internet warfare: white vs. yellow

again theoretically, given the 单色谱"特征" of Chinese people (中's mind 色谱 much more "单色" than 印's 色谱,印 has some kind of 广色谱 due to its religions), one could naturally ask the following questions:

If TG can basically manipulate the mind of Chinese people, can USA/CIA/NSA make/山寨 a TG internet copy, then 以假乱真, 假共乱真共, making Chinese people confused, 大量消耗 their brain 热力学能, maximizing their brain "entropy", making their brain eventually 过劳/"overheat" and stop working? etc.

basically, it is a lot of easier to figure out and "attack" a system with 单色谱"特征" (human mind=likely some kind of "量子力学+热力学" system), vs. a system of 广色谱.

Can TG understand the potential problem/danger of 锁定/keeping Chinese peoples mind in an artificially TG made 单色谱 world of 意识形态 & 文化?

never say never.

还有一个本嘉明会感兴趣的东西是：这次新浪的新闻稿里提到习在土库曼斯坦的讲话里有“发展丝绸之路经济圈”的字样

1）这是古老的丝路：

这是今天的“新丝路”：

可见阿拉山口对中国的重要意义。

外链出处

2）照相角度的问题

说白了，领袖也是普通人，这类小细节上烘托别人一下下，这在平头百姓日常的交往中也是很自然的。

看起来好多了吧？因为记者不是从接近习的一侧照的

下半年来，郑州已经发了两趟郑欧列车：郑州——汉堡，第三趟车将于9月底出发，目前看效果不错，效应也很好，周边省市的货物有不少愿意选择走陆路的。

因为法律和政治因素，我不能说出明确的数字。但你只要搜一下“汉新欧”“补贴”等字眼，就能间接推算出郑欧班列是怎么回事。

这个班列绝对不是市场自发的因素，完全是政治产物，你懂得……可以说，这个东西，就是学薄三哥的那一套，但是重庆的“渝新欧”拉的全是惠普的笔记本电脑，就地取货，而郑州这个还得跑到沿海去把人家的东西拉过来，这个成本就高了。

中西部地区搞任何新奇玩意儿，基本上是赔本赚吆喝，这就是实质，想拿真金白银，除非中央掏腰包。

90年代末是很多人发家的见证，现在就很一般了。

不过，就这么个小地方，中央机关和企业还是不少的，而且，这些单位里，年轻的美貌女子也挺多，除了乌鲁木齐汉族的后裔，居然还有全国各地分过来的大学生……

现在最成功的是重庆，成都、武汉的都是不行，郑州还凑合。

重庆的情况是不需要到其他地方组货，全部是重庆产的惠普笔记本电脑和其他电子产品。重庆也有补贴，但因为电子产品价值高，美国佬也不大钻牛角尖，所以慢慢这个补贴就下来了。

郑州的情况是富士康压价低，所以就不组他的货，但这样一来，就得靠以前走海运的外贸货，但河南本地显然外向型经济不发达，接下来就得组沿海的货，这就不如重庆了，因为组货成本要大一些。

至于成都，纯粹打酱油，经常是一个班列，拉着一堆空箱子，跑到德国去。

武汉务实点，一发现事情麻烦，干脆不玩了，现在就是搅混水，拆郑州的台。

还有些别的中西部城市，看见重庆郑州在做，自己也痒痒了，估计下一步会有所动静。

PS：薄三哥真的是牛叉，这里面的事情有多难，外人很少清楚，但是薄三哥居然做下来了，而且做的还不错，这就不能都说人家拼爹屌了，还是胆识能力要高人一筹。纯粹实事求是，多言几句。