主题：【原创】中国出口大幅负增长，休克疗法恶果越来越彰显 -- 思想的行者

但是同时中小企业也得益

因为中小企业有了充裕的资金可以投资，可以开工厂，可以让停下来的流水线再转起来

因此，你说的劫贫济富并不正确，宽松货币政策是济贫也济富。

你还是受到弗里德曼的影响，以为宽松货币政策，物价就一定会上涨，会跟着货币增长比例同样比例的上涨，因而老百姓就被抢劫了。

其实根本就不是这回事，宽松货币政策，货币增加的同时，商品也会增多，价格不就是等于货币/商品吗（当然这是从宏观经济学的角度，费雪方程比这个复杂一些，我这里简化了）用于投资的货币多了，商品也会同步增多，怎么物价就一定会上涨呢？

反过来说，如果你紧缩货币，紧缩到企业一个个的破产，结果商品大幅减少，再来看货币/商品，这里货币是减少了，但是商品减少得更厉害，商品减少到一定程度，民生基本用品发生严重紧缺引发居民恐慌，彻夜排队，投机势力一定会介入，这个时候物价就会猛烈的上涨。俄罗斯1992年实施的休克疗法，和中国1988-1989年实施的休克疗法都带来了强烈的投机，例如中国出现了严重的官倒，俄罗斯就更不用说了，你紧缩货币反而导致物价大幅上涨。

因此休克疗法是劫贫劫富。

私有化的问题与宽松货币政策本身无关，在维基的英文的休克疗法网页中，私有化，紧缩货币，紧缩财政，都是休克疗法政策

英文维基：休克疗法

以上谈到了价格的突然的自由化，货币紧缩，财政紧缩，贸易自由化，以及私有化,总之这一切都已经成为了今日中国的“主流经济学”。

中国的私有化的发生主要还是因为“主流经济学”或者说“休克疗法经济学”对中国的忽悠，国企的战略意义被对方给严重低估，进而引发了领导层的信心动摇。

至于所谓官办经济，或者说官僚影响下的经济，中国政府对经济的影响，有正面的影响，也有负面的影响，需要具体的分析，但是如果鼓吹取消官办经济，也就是如同张维迎他们所鼓吹的取消政府管制，再来看看休克疗法的英文介绍，这就是immediate trade liberalization within a country,目前的李克强政府就在认真的执行这一点，但是如果政策持续延续下去，必然导致政府该发挥的作用发挥不出来，陷入无政府状态，最后是经济黑社会和海外跨国资本控制中国经济。就如同蒋介石政权一样，蒋介石本身是个大流氓，是个大黑社会头子，他们控制了一部分的经济，但是旧中国经济主要还是控制在海外资本那里，形成了一个畸形的买办的经济结构。

重庆当年打黑，实际上也是因为政府管制力度下降导致的经济黑社会化导致的一个必然的要求。

俺的经济学知识，只是自学的一点皮毛，还主要是十年前的记忆，因此，虫子必然极多，这也是俺的文字的通病。

俺给经济学做了两种分类，一种可分为，国际经济学，国家经济学，市场经济学三种，也就是在宏观经济学和微观经济学的基础上，更具体的划分。

另一种，则是根据俺的系统唯能论的划分，分为主体经济学，载体经济学，客体经济学，其中，载体经济学，又分为主体性载体经济学，和客体性载体经济学。

传统的非商品经济，和苏联式的计划经济，都算是客体经济学范畴，也就是生产的目的不是为了交换，而只是自给自足，或统一配置，这种经济，缺少能动性。

西方的新教伦理，日本的精细化生活习惯，毛时代的群众运动，则是主体经济学范畴，也就是因为文化，军事，政治的原因，导致人的能动性增强，但却没有具体的物质的成就，就如每天锻炼身体，付出了时间，甚至金钱，却没有物质收益，却使得主体的能动性增强，有利于创造更多的物质财富，马克斯韦伯的思想，与这方面有些相似。

客体性的载体经济学，哈耶克主义，供给学派，货币主义等强调市场的经济学，则属于这一范畴，生产的目的是为了交换，越少干预经济活动，经济越会运行的更好，在摆脱了金本位的束缚之后，独立的央行，完全能够良好地支配经济活动。

主体性载体经济学，既强调市场，也强调政府，更强调人的能动性，政府在经济活动中有两个作用，一是对内维护公平正义，二是对外保障独立自主，这方面，政府对外是国际经济学，政府对内是国家经济学，还有市场经济学。这里的主体，是政府，是企业，是社团，更根本的是人，主体的能动性为核心，主体的主动性为媒介和手段，因此，主体经济学，其实质是主动的能动经济学。

只是一些不成熟的看法，欢迎指正。

但是话说回来，如果货币流入但是不能形成资本的话，确实会有上述隐忧，反面例子就是大航海时代的西班牙、葡萄牙，正面教材则是荷兰和英国了。

英国当年率先完成了工业革命，货币流入促进了制造业发展。

如果制造业没有发展，货币流入多就如同今日的沙特一样。

也不怕扯掉了蛋蛋

你认为经济报道的记者跨这几个领域很大是吗？

obviously, the growth of nation's 勞動生產率 is the ultimate driver of a nations economic & social development, without that driver in place working hard & steadily, all the bubbles are going to eventually burst, once "energy" stops its reproduction & "growth".

how "long" the long term is? nobody knows, but the future generations of Chinese nation will see "it" in their life, and "相位波" will become real 物質波 right there in their faces. enjoy it, baby(:).

1.

yes, 科学技术是第一生产力

2.

how to have "成建制的" 科学技术"原創", while "山寨"?

obviously, "原創" carries a premium, while "山寨" is more likely a sale at discount;

3.

how to turn 科学技术 into 企业, again, 成建制的, if you don't have an IP system, the related legal system, and a capital market for it?

4.

yes, you have 中国特色社会主义, what is your logic behind? can you articulate it out clearly? how are you doing so far? any predictions for the foreseeable future?

三個代表, 三個自信, 三個....?

as a nation & in long term, can you really model the future development & welfare of Chinese nation in this extremely competitive & brutal world ("heatbath") with those "三個代表, 三個自信, 三個...."?

obviously, this is all "wild modeling".

basic assumptions:

1) competitions of 運動模式

people often get upset and & emotional about what I wrote about TGchina. and I keep saying that this is basically about global heatbath vs TGchina as a subsystem far away from 平衡態 of "global heatbath".

is "global heatbath" dominated by US/white wolves "good" or "bad"? we don't know now, and in future, humanity may well comeback to Marxist/Mao's social economic development model(although very unlikely), but for now, it is all about competitions of 運動模式.

2) 热力学第0定律

not very much taught in china at all.

basically, for china to sustain its current model far away from US white dominated and managed "global heatbath", china needs constant energy supply to feed its system, at a much higher lever and growth rate, to balance out the leakage of energy from the system, such as financial capital & human capital, among other things.

where & how does china get that kind of energy supply? or outing it in a simple way, how do you keep a GDP growth rate of >6%, and at what cost?

1.

chairman X's recent speech (fairly well known) in central party school: more than half of the 1 hour speech is about 演色革命, he & his team is obviously worried about Uncle sam & his white wolf team (including a few yellow folks).

google/fb is working hard to penetrate TG's GFW:

Broadcasting Free Internet from Outer Space!

决战千里之外, how to hedge that?

Onislam.net-2014年4月17日

Broadcasting Free Internet from Outer Space! ... Google's Project Loon is essentially no different from Outernet. ... “free internet” dream with a fleet of drones to provide internet access worldwide with the acquisition of Ascenta, ...

2.

if you work inside a pressure cooker, you have to watch out the risk of 李政道杨振宁"热力学极限配分函数出现奇点，系统产生相变"

so,

1)release pressure, by killing a bounce of Jiang folks, 1 at a time, how many for many years?

2) reforming military, controlling budget & expenditure etc

3) near term, get done with this short farmers trade(城镇化) to keep GDP growth rate and make some money

4) china capital market to be opening up, sooner than later, and yes, there will be possibly bloody consequences & cost, etc.

but, to play safe, politically & economically, TG has to 统一战线 uncle sams' wall street wolf, among other goals. yes, these US wall street wolf are not cheap, with help of GOOG/FB wolfs's 决战千里之外 vs TG's GFW, omg(:).

3.

10 years later, 自由选举, chairman X will be the 1st

民選 president of china,新加坡 model, some how & to some degree normalized with global "heat bath", uncle sam's dream of 放在火炉(global heat bath) 上考 TGchina falls apart, risk to be significantly reduced for TGchina.

likely, chairman X will succeed, 打個平手与 uncle sam, 与狼共舞, with Chinese's huge & still growing 载体经济, and Chinese people's almost unconditional support of their political elite (other than during the sever economic & political turmoil periods) , as evidenced mostly for the past 5k years.

分别称为农业口、工交口和金融口。我不知道现在的记者到底是如何挑选和培养的，以至于同一个人能够同时对这么几个完全独立的领域进行新闻报道。

经济学研究确实学派繁多，无非是盲人摸象，无奈经济体系庞杂繁多，又是人类社会事实上的核心活动，众说纷纭也是正常。以交换为核心的新古典无疑仍然在统治着这个学科，而且在可预见的将来，还将会是主流理论，好在新古典也并未排斥其他学说，相对还算是包容并蓄的。制度学派、行为学派或者已经成了化石的计划经济学，都是在不同分支边缘的探讨，本质上都没有颠覆源自亚当斯密-马歇尔-萨缪尔森的新古典。

经济学一直被诟病的无非是无法预测走势，无法防止危机甚至崩溃。其实地球物理学之于地震又何尝不是如此。

well said; and I hope people like you to write more about what & how "white" thinks in social science area.

"知己知彼 百战不殆"

very few Chinese including those currently here in US really understand the white's "mind", across almost all areas of physical science, social science and humanities, "我的中国心+some Marxist&毛+some English terminologies" follows a Chinese no matter where he goes, "我的中国心" being formatted over past 5K yrs; "江山易改, 本性难移".

again, this is not about who (white vs Chinese) is "bad/wrong" or "good/right", it is all about who is going to formulate mainstream expectations of global society or market;

you cannot stand in the way of market, you have to go with market

and we all know whom they/TG精英交易员 are, as a group, TG精英交易员=the current Chinese elite, mostly related to TG one way or another;

many of them may never have had any "反動" training or even knowing any major "反動" foreign language at all, but obviously, they somehow have figured out how to arbitrage across TG's GFW (more of general sense), or 體制套利, globally.

让思想冲出观念的牢笼, they obviously did that very well(:). 精英=精英, for any society.

I hope people don't get upset again by my these 反動 comments(:).

1.

even 西化: MD'll still chew TGchina (since most Chinese people likely will support TG anyway, short of a major economic political turmoil, so TG=china in a sense and as a reality). and I have written in the past about some possible reasons, and with TG's pocket being the deepest now, full of gold, yum yum(:).

and that makes the whole game even trickier for TG, and trickier for those TG senior traders.

I would think that chairman X & his team know this situation very well.

2.

but how to play this game, domestically & internationally?

for uncle sam, it seems that the most dangerous points (911, 2008 financial crisis, 北京共识 as an ideology/economic development model challenge to US/white) may have been put behind. now, uncle sam is going to play the game very slow, they may think that time is on their side.

3.

TG elite traders global game of 體值套利 will go on, china GDP growth rate has to be >6% or higher, but how and at what cost?

US white wolves are watching, very closely.

besides, their WS brothers always get a reasonably big share of that 體值套利 anyway.

just a guess, obviously.