主题：【原创】普京的台阶在哪里？ -- 本嘉明

基本态势就是：美法英说是给，其实是提供给则连斯基阅兵用的，就乌军那个后勤体系，M1开不出基辅的五环之外。

但他们一给，同行衬托之下，德国就只能松口了。豹子才是上战场真干活的，当然里面坐的坦克兵是波兰人还是芬兰人，这个不重要。目前重要的是：乌军在初春翻浆之前，就用西方坦克出其不意反攻一波，还是等翻浆后（等到4月中的话，俄军对于反西方坦克的准备就比较充分了）？

美国松口给坦克，很可能他们对于普京的健康状况，有了确切的情报。

最终还是从了。政治正确这个坎过不去。

主要西方国家以英国为首在坏笑。俄罗斯周边的历史敌人都在抱薪救火。

M1和M2在美军体系中都是营级就混成的，后勤维护上标准化程度很高。这次给乌克兰的M1坦克、M2步战车和M109A6火炮估计会编出一个全美械机步旅。

另外，考虑到美国和北约援乌的特点都是先偷偷做再公开说，乌军使用北约坦克的训练应该早已进行了。

基本编制和战术上，乌军坦克部队在2014年后的重建军队中就已经抛弃苏俄制式转向北约化。

比如说苏俄制坦克排是3车，三角展开，一个连10辆（3个排+1连长车）而北约坦克排是4车，两个双车组，一个连14辆（3个排+2连长车）。这次英国援助挑战者2坦克就是14辆，一个整连。

坦克兵换装本身难度不大，西方坦克人机功效好，容易开的很。使用西方火控电子装备也没问题，乌克兰用西方火控电子装备改了自产的T64和T80一直在用。

唯一的难度就是修理和维护。战场抢修乌克兰人有足够技术和经验，大修可以到波兰进行。

还来自不同国家。根本无法形成战力。

则连司机说了，给我300辆坦克。

谁敢，谁舍得啊。

还是作秀。都在添油兑付着。

总数肯定会满足甚至超过乌克兰的要求。但只能分批给，一方面这些库存坦克也需要检修整备，另外一方面乌军也不可能让所有坦克兵一次都去换装。

第一批官宣的就已经150多辆豹2+M1了，正好编1个豹2坦克旅、一个美械机步旅。

以后还会给，北约国家每家给1、2个坦克连就够了。

美国总计会给80多辆M1（6个连），西班牙是最早要给豹2的，表态说最多可以给50多辆（4个连）。

还有波兰最多能给多少一直没露底，波兰可是有200多辆豹2，而且新购进了M1和韩国的K2。

上面这些就差不多了。波兰还有200多辆PT91（自产的T72深度改进版），早就表态说要全部给乌克兰了。

另外，豹2和M1有标准化要求的（两个型号本来就是亲兄弟，当年美国德国MBT70坦克技术合作项目的产物），在北约部队也是合同作战的。

除去最近关于德国坦克的新闻，没有关注。

似乎开战以来未爆发大规模的坦克行动。乌克兰要300俩坦克干啥，包抄俄军的后路？

不过乌克兰也有自己的私心，想借着这次战争的机会尽可能多搞一点北约装备，彻底完成军队北约化。

这个来源是哪里啊？

我只看到德国计划给14辆。不知道是几个月还是几年完成交付。

还有，瑞典14辆str122（瑞典自己改版的豹2A6），荷兰18辆，芬兰最起码14辆，西班牙54辆，波兰的第一批14辆申请早已递交给德国了。

舒尔茨说德国和一些盟国会尽快凑出2个营（近100辆），这是第一批。

很简单，北约特别是以波兰为首的东欧北欧国家，急着要把自己装备的豹2援助乌克兰，那么它们的装备空缺会买谁的呢？传统上这是德国的市场（北约有1500辆现役豹2），但现在德国自己军备废弛，产能段时间跟不上，美国和韩国可就来了。

像波兰不仅买美国的M1，而且和韩国达成协议进口K2，还要本地生产1000辆，那明摆着要抢豹2的市场，而且盯着东欧国家未来换装的机会。

所以德国一直拧巴着，自己不送坦克也不让其他国家送。现在让步，我估计是达成某种协议了，就是捐豹2的国家承诺未来还会买德国坦克。

我搜索了 国家名字 + 乌克兰 + 坦克，在任何媒体上，包括外语的，找不到任何你说的这些新闻。中文媒体有个别XX国“将”（“准备”）提供乌克兰坦克，既没有数量也没有时间表。唯一确定的德国将援助14辆，但是也是说立即开展对乌克兰士兵的培训，没说什么时候到货。

搜索过程中意外发现美国同意送31辆M1，英国送14辆挑战者2。但是都没有时间表。

自媒体就算了，如果没有正式媒体公布，自媒体信息源是哪里？这也不是什么藏着掖着的事情。

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a42660625/germany-us-send-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/24/pentagon-send-ukraine-battle-tanks-help-its-war-russia/11112797002/

Early Wednesday, Germany announced it would provide, as a first step, 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks for Ukraine's military. “This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a Cabinet meeti

https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-expects-100-leopard-2-tanks-12-countries/story?id=96620510

Twelve countries have agreed to supply Ukraine with around 100 Leopard 2 tanks if the German government gives its consent, according to a senior Ukrainian official who spoke exclusively to ABC News.

Those agreements, the source said, were made at Friday's summit at Ramstein US Air Force Base in Germany when allied nations discussed military support for Ukraine.

德国提供14辆坦克，时间表呢，哪里提到了下个月？你曾经明确说

你这篇英文说的都是虚拟语气吧，其他国家都是如果...就...，而不是正式宣布提供。而且信息源是a senior Ukrainian official，他说了也不算啊。

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3659107-germany-could-deliver-first-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine-this-spring-pistorius.html

First Leopard 2 tanks from Germany could be delivered to Ukraine in about three months.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said this at the Bundestag after a meeting of the defense committee, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

"I think the first Leopard tanks could be in Ukraine in about three months," Pistorius said.

He added that the issue concerns two battalions that will be delivered in two steps. In a first step, Berlin will provide 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks that are available and can be quickly prepared for delivery, including in cooperation with partners. Ammunition and repair options are available for this type of tank.

The second step will take a little longer.

The minister discussed the situation with partners from Poland and six other countries, including Canada, Spain, and Portugal. "The goal is to deliver [tanks to Ukraine] as soon as possible," he said.

The training of Ukrainian soldiers will begin "very soon," Pistorius added.

Read also: Zelensky, Sholtz discuss transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine

The minister said he was satisfied with the German government's approval of the transfer of Leopard main tanks to Ukraine, as he considers this decision "correct, necessary and historic."

At the same time, he warned against excessive joy. "There is no reason to overjoy," the politician said, referring to several social media posts and statements.

He also noted that about half of the population of Germany is concerned about the supply of tanks, but added that Berlin will make sure that the country does not become a party to the war and that the Bundeswehr is not weakened. Pistorius added that only Putin is further escalating the situation.

Commenting on Washington's plans to provide Abrams tanks, Pistorius said they were one of the best tanks that can possibly change the rules of the game at least at this stage of the war.

He said that decisions are made in close coordination with partners and allies and this will continue to be so. As long as the war continues, there will be discussions about further weapons systems, Pistorius added.

怎么翻译成这个的：

另外你说的

在哪里？