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- 【征集】西西河的经济学，及清流措施，需要主动参与者，『稷下学宫』新认证方式，24年网站打算和努力目标
主题：摇摇晃晃的道指 -- 倥偬飞人
家园 摇摇晃晃的道指 道指昨天跌，今天也跌，看看技术图形，摇摇欲坠：
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改CMF：明显的负逆差，大户出货的迹象 （A)
RSI: 结束了自3月以来的上升及牛气势头，掉头大幅向下，触及牛熊分界线，估计会继续下行（B)
ROC: 已经穿过牛熊分界线下行(C)
等着看好戏吧，这会儿已经跌了超过150点了。
提示：还记得天仙局吗？
- 复 摇摇晃晃的道指
家园 如今流行双顶？ 道指不出所料，深层出现动摇，终于表现在表面上了
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改黑石的上市，可能标志着道指终于发出了最后的光彩，呵呵，那叫回光返照！
BS (Bear Sterns) is full of BS. 旗下的对冲基金投资的次级房贷CDO之类损失巨大，终于触动了华尔街放贷者美林之流的神经，却又不知道如何收场。这些巨擘年利润听起来以billion 计算，可惜损失可能会更大，仅仅BS砸手里的就超过200亿次级房贷债券，而最低级的市场定价只有面值的60%不到！华尔街面临的是一个巨大的黑洞，有多深都没有人知道！
无独有偶，中国股市的走势也出现了一个双顶的形态。ZF各种招法不断抽走游资，也该喘口气了。
- 复 如今流行双顶？
家园 无底深渊：一万亿CDO债券出问题 This from another blog, but is scarier than hell if true and certainly explains alot. My belief is it is given I can easily understand the motivations of the "big boys". Nouriel, a blog on the likelihood and motives of Federal authorities to keep any "bailout"/"rescue"/"gentlemen's settlement" amongst the largest exposed secret or quiet behind closed doors would be in order as well as federal oversight negligence."Afriend of mine laid out some connections which I find fascinating. First, the Bear Stearns auction of the Merrill CDOs has been continued today. Remember how they initially seized $400 million of CDO obligations, then it went up to $800, then $850m? Well, today Duetsche Bank got into the fray and added another $350m of CDOs it seized and is auctioning, so there’s over $1bn of CDOs up for grabs. Now the auction is continuing. How many reasons are there for that? One. They can’t get the price they want. The rumors in the currency trading circles are that the auction was also continued so the big lenders have time to position themselves with options on the downside of xx vs. yen pairs because (and here’s the great part) the big houses need to unwind the carry trade *right now* to have liquid funds available for margin and leverage calls when it becomes apparent that over $1 trillion of CDOs being held are worth considerably less than face value. Think it through slowly, because it’s huge. I can barely grasp the full extent of this process, so maybe we call in the black-belts to handle this one.
Update: Bloomberg reports that Merrill has pulled the plug on the auction after selling only a “small portion” of the CDOs. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aKayDn8BDFB8&refer=news
Apparently they either could not get the price or the howls of protest have penetrated - or both. Now to see if Deutsche Bank follows suit…"
No wonder selling like crazy!
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现) - 复 如今流行双顶？
家园 哈哈！等会看我做今天的报表…… “熊死蹬”会不会因为这个大跌？美林呢？
- 复 摇摇晃晃的道指
家园 DOW眼看又撑不住了，呵呵 今天是VIX指数期权到期日，牛牛们辛辛苦苦守了半天，终于要歇口气了。搞不好，这个双顶式的图形杀伤力很大，美国股民哪里有中国股民那么多银行存款呢？
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改要多备点子弹卖空啊，比什么投资都好
- 复 摇摇晃晃的道指
家园 摇摇晃晃到打趔趄，呵呵 感觉大熊终于发威了！耶！！！
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改 - 复 摇摇晃晃的道指
家园 感觉现在是大选前的死撑，所谓的选举效应 不知道什么时候大选，大选后必然是一次大调整，类似BUSH在2000年上台那会一样。
现在全球泡泡最怕的2个因子，一美国大选；二日本加息。
- 复 摇摇晃晃的道指
家园 飞人兄总是提前发出预警， 还记得在美国2级房贷发生崩溃前 半年就发出预警。 至于有无人听就不知道了。