主题：1/7/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 01/07/2009

FSLR (First Solar--$148.50; -5.21; optionable): Photovoltaic solar devices

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html

EARNINGS: Late January

STATUS: Test breakout. We took the rest of a nice gain off the table Wednesday, and FSLR came back some more and tested the 10 day EMA (144.34) on the low and then rebounded to recover some ground. Low volume on the selling. Looking for FSLR to bounce off of the test and continue the breakout from its 8 week cup with handle of sorts. Can move in a hurry and it is setting up to do so with this low volume test.

Volume: 3.649M Avg Volume: 5.148M

BUY POINT: $151.66 Volume=6.5M Target=$174.95 Stop=$144.11

POSITION: HJQ CJ - Mar. $150c (57 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fslr.html

Play Date: 01/07/2009

WFR (Memc Electronic--$17.10; -0.59; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html

EARNINGS: 1-22-09

STATUS: Test breakout. WFR broke higher Tuesday on strong volume, rallying out of a 9 week consolidation at what looks to be the bottom of a long 13 month selloff. WFR moved through the 50 day EMA (17.27) on that break higher and then tested back Wednesday on low volume, closing just below the 50 day. Looking for WFR to continue this move and give us a buy off this pause. It may come back a bit more Thursday, and if so we will let it and move our buy accordingly if necessary. Would like to see it get through the 50 day, however.

Volume: 6.741M Avg Volume: 7.075M

BUY POINT: $17.32 Volume=8.5M Target=$20.98 Stop=$16.22

POSITION: CJC DC - Apr. $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html

New buy points on existing positions:

Play Date: 01/07/2009

BHP (BHP Billiton--$44.40; -3.60; optionable): Industrial metals, minerals

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html

STATUS: Breakout test. BHP broke higher to start the new year, clearing a 12 week base, a double bottom of sorts formed after a nasty May to November selloff that stripped two-thirds of its value. After a gap higher Tuesday on strong volume it gapped lower Wednesday, selling back to test the 90 day SMA and the 10 day EMA on the low (43.98). Looking for BHP to test a bit more and then rebound, and when it does we are looking to pick up some more shares.

Volume: 4.712M Avg Volume: 6.609M

BUY POINT: $45.65 Volume=8.5M Target=$54.55 Stop=$43.22

POSITION: BHP EI - May $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhp.html

Play Date: 01/07/2009

CMI (Cummins--$27.94; -3.67; optionable): Heavy machinery, engines

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html

EARNINGS: 2-3-09

STATUS: Test breakout. CMI moved nicely higher off of an 8 week base to start January as did many of the recent leaders. Volume really picked up as it surged higher, reversing an August to November selloff. Wednesday it faded back, falling just below the 50 day EMA (28.27) and closing at the 10 day EMA. Volume was still above average but lower. Going to let CMI finish the test, but expecting it to hold in this general area and renew the move. When it does we move in.

Volume: 5.05M Avg Volume: 4.518M

BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=6M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.58

POSITION: CMI CY - Mar. $27.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmi.html

Play Date: 01/07/2009

GOOG (Google--$322.01; -12.05; optionable): Internet search

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html

EARNINGS: 1-15-09 (not confirmed)

STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. GOOG may be just an internet ad company, but you have to like the potential for a trade here. It reversed its near term trend from August to November with its lateral December move and then break higher to start 2009. It tested back on low, below average volume Wednesday, holding at the 50 day EMA on the close. From here it can give us a bounce up to the 90 day SMA at 350. Earnings are next week but it can cover this ground quickly and give us a nice 45%ish gain on the option play.

Volume: 4.494M Avg Volume: 7.28M

BUY POINT: $325.45 Volume=8.5M Target=$349.85 Stop=$315.88

POSITION: GGD CD - Mar. $320c (57 delta)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/goog.html

Play Date: 01/07/2009

JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$49.63; -4.39; optionable): Engineering services

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html

EARNINGS: First week of February

STATUS: Breakout test. JEC formed a double bottom with handle base October to early December. It broke higher in December, then tested back to end that month but holding the 50 day EMA (45) on the test and surging back up to end 2008 and start 2009. It tested back Wednesday on lower, below average volume, closing above the 10 day EMA (48.86). Looking for it to complete the test Thursday and perhaps early Friday, and then turn back up and continue the run. That gives us the buy point we are looking for.

Volume: 2.829M Avg Volume: 3.108M

BUY POINT: $50.68 Volume=4M Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.66

POSITION: JEC DJ - Apr. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jec.html

Play Date: 01/07/2009

STLD (Steel Dynamics--$12.78; -0.21; optionable): Steel and iron

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html

EARNINGS: 1-14-09 (not confirmed)

STATUS: Test breakout. STLD formed a classic double bottom with handle base from October through December, rounding out the bottom of a June to November selloff by the commodities. Broke higher mid-December, but could not hold the break. It ended the month testing in a very flat lateral move over the 18 day EMA (11.31). It started the new year with the break higher on strong volume. It cleared the 90 day SMA (12.55) and held that level on Wednesday even as it sold back, dipping below it intraday and then recovering to hold the line. Going to let STLD complete the test. It may go back to the 10 day EMA (11.90) before it is ready. We are just going to be ready and after it makes the test move in with new positions.

Volume: 7.578M Avg Volume: 9.201M

BUY POINT: $13.33 Volume=10M Target=$17.45 Stop=$12.45

POSITION: RQL ER - May $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html