主题：1/7/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Jobless claims and consumer credit are the scheduled economic reports for Thursday. They are warm-ups to the Friday jobs report, a report everyone knows will be bad. The good thing is that the weak ADP report gets the market used to the idea of the bad news to come and helps consolidate the move and gets the indices in position to move higher once the news is out.

It is no done deal. Any rally can get turned over if bad, unexpected news piles up. Nonetheless, this is rally does not have the characteristics of a bear market rally. Those tend to be sharp and almost vicious in their advance. Then they end equally abruptly. One session they are surging higher, the next they roll over and dive lower.

This rally is market by its steady, sustained build higher, making higher highs and higher lows, taking out resistance points one at a time. It is not a rush back up by a bunch of stocks that were screaming lower, but a build of patterns, breaks higher, tests, and then new breaks higher. There are real leaders in very good patterns. Moreover, the market endured wave after wave of bad news. It had about all the bad news imaginable thrown at it and the market swallowed it all and advanced. Tuesday it wavered when a series of bad reports hit and Wednesday it sold on the ADP jobs survey, but it was also extended on the last leg higher that lasted more than a week. It was time to take some rest and the news was a good reason to pull up a chair.

Thus we are not inclined to say this pullback Wednesday is the start of the end of the rally. We anticipate the indices holding the test in this general area and then moving higher at some point after the jobs report. Maybe the market has not factored in all the bad news and won't hold up, crumbling back into the bear market selling, but the jobs report is lagging the rest of the economy. If the terrible more leading data did not keep it from advancing the lagging jobs data should not.

There are many solid plays that have pulled back modestly or to support in the selling, and we are going to be patient, let them make the test, and when they start to bounce, move in. We are even talking about those we just got out of today. We never want a gain to turn into a loss so we closed some positions that ended up holding support. That is okay. We can treat them as new plays and do it all over again.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1599.06

Resistance:

1603 is the December peak

The 50 day EMA at 1611

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

1752 from 2004

The 90 day SMA at 1754

1782 from August 2004

1786 is the November 2008 high. Key level.

1948 is the early October 2008 gap down level

Support:

The 10 day EMA is 1588

The 18 day EMA at 1569

1565 is the second low in October 2008

1551 is the 50 day SMA that stalled NASDAQ last week

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1499.21 is the 2008 closing low

1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.

1428 is the November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1295 is the November 2008 low

S&P 500: Closed at 906.65

Resistance:

The 50 day EMA at 917

919 is the early December peak

965 is the 2003 consolidation low

The 90 day SMA at 988

995 from June 2003 consolidation peak

1008 is the November 2008 peak

1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.

Support:

The 10 day EMA at 905

899 is the early October closing low

896 is the late November 2008 peak

The 18 day EMA at 896

889 is an interim 2002 peak

866 is the second October 2008 low

853 is the July 2002 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

839 is the early October 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the November 2008 low

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

741 is the November 2008 low

Dow: Closed at 8769.70

Resistance:

The 10 day EMA at 8781

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

The 50 day EMA at 8869

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation

9323 From June 2003 peak

The 90 day SMA at 9384

9575 from September 2003, May 2001

9654 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

The 18 day EMA at 8721

The 50 day SMA at 8665

8626 from December 2002

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.

8141 is the early December low

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.

7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.

7702 is the July 2002 low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 low

7282 is the October 2002 low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

January 5 - Monday

November Construction Spending (10:00): -0.6% actual versus -1.4% expected, -1.2% prior

January 6 - Tuesday

November Factory Orders (10:00): -4.6% actual versus -2.6% expected, -6.0% prior (revised from -5.1%)

ISM Services, December (10:00): 40.6 actual versus 37.0 expected, 37.3 prior

January 8 - Thursday

1/03 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 550K expected, 492K prior

Consumer Credit, November (2:00): $0.5B expected, -$3.5B prior

January 9 - Friday

December Average Workweek (8:30): 33.5 expected, 33.5 prior

Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior

Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): -475K expected, -533K prior

Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 7.0% expected, 6.7%

Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): -0.9% expected, -1.1% prior