主题：1/7/2009 Market View -- 宁子

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 43.39; +4.83

VXN: 43.52; +3.81

VXO: 43.75; +5.23

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.14; +0.34. Back above 1.0 for the first time in several weeks.

NASDAQ

Stats: -53.32 points (-3.23%) to close at 1599.06

Volume: 2.054B (-5.86%). Volume fell back to average. Better to see lower volume on the selling as that continues the decent price/volume action the renewed market rally has shown.

Up Volume: 473.299M (-1.275B)

Down Volume: 1.572B (+1.154B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.83 to 1. Definitely a broad move lower.

Previous Session: Advancers led 2.51 to 1

New Highs: 9 (-5)

New Lows: 14 (+9)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ gapped lower then moved below the 50 day EMA (1610). It tapped the 10 day EMA on the low (1588) and rebounded modestly. That bounce kept NASDAQ above the December highs on the close (1598). This is the general range that we want to see NASDAQ hold on this pullback and then move back over the 50 day. It can undercut some more without serious damage but this is the general range to hold.

SOX (-4.87%) gapped lower and sold as well. It tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounded, closing above the December closing highs. Chips were leaders on the last leg and it needs to hold and reassert itself in this range.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -28.05 points (-3%) to close at 906.55

NYSE Volume: 1.233B (-7.59%). Volume fell further below average as SP500 sold. As with NASDAQ, that shows more a lack of buyers than an increase in sellers.

Up Volume: 145.155M (-855.122M)

Down Volume: 1.083B (+764.707M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 4.6 to 1. Broad move lower as bids were pulled across the market.

Previous Session: Advancers led 3.62 to 1

New Highs: 29 (0)

New Lows: 58 (-7)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP500 posted a rare gap lower and sold through the 50 day EMA (917), landing on the 10 day EMA at the close. That puts SP500 just below the December 2008 closing high (913) but this is the general range it can hold and still make the move back up. A rather large loss for one session thanks to the weakness in financials, but thus far no damage.

SP600 (-3.52%) sold as well, but it closed near its 50 day EMA, closing right on the 10 day EMA. That keeps it easily above the December peaks and still in good position to hold, make the test, and then continue higher. Small caps have turned into leaders of late and you want to see SP600 hold in this range and then resume the move.

SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG

SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg

DJ30

The blue chips suffered the worst technical day, falling through the 50 day EMA (8869) as with the rest of the indices, but it also gave up the December highs on the close. Volume rose as the financial stocks struggled. The Dow led off the lows but it is not in leadership mode right now, leaving that up to the growth indices. Indeed that is the way it should be.

Stats: -245.4 points (-2.72%) to close at 8769.7

VOLUME: 266M shares Wednesday versus 215M shares Tuesday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg