主题：【英文文摘】无处可逃？原材料泡沫也即将爆破？ -- 西风陶陶

在市场上也有反面意见，由于美元的贬值，黄金和原材料市场看好。如果大家有兴趣，俺们可以正反两边辩论一下。

Matthew Lynn is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.

Is the Commodity Price Bubble Finally Bursting?: Matthew Lynn

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Of all the markets you could have invested in during the past 18 months, you would have done best in commodities.

Oil has hogged most of the attention, yet the price of just about every raw material has been soaring.

And now? There are signs the commodities bubble may be popping. Few booms last forever, and this one is no exception.

This month, the markets have had an attack of nerves over the sustainability of commodity prices. Look at some of the indexes.

The Bloomberg Europe Metals and Mining Index has dropped from a peak of 210 on Oct. 7 to about 190 now -- a decline of almost 10 percent. U.S. mining stocks have also looked shaky. This month, the Bloomberg United States Mining Index dipped as low as 103 from an October peak of 112 -- a drop of 8 percent.

Go back a few weeks and the prices of most raw materials were reaching stratospheric levels.

Take copper, a fairly mundane raw material.

In April 2003, the London price of copper was $1,575 a ton. On Oct. 8 this year, it closed at $3,145 -- almost double the level of 18 months earlier. Then copper suddenly slumped, dropping by $300 a ton in just a few days.

The story is similar across a range of commodities: gold, silver, platinum, aluminum and steel.

`Speculative Swings'

So should investors be calling an end to the bull market in commodities? Some analysts think so. ``We have been overweight on this sector for three years,'' said Andrew Garthwaite, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston, in an e-mailed response to questions. ``We are now taking our weightings down to underweight.''

Zurich-based UBS AG also sees a possible decline in commodity prices. ``These big speculative swings are one indicator that we are probably drifting around at the top of the metals price cycle,'' said Peter Blight, an analyst at the bank.

There are reasons to support those views.

One, prices have risen too far, too quickly. Whether you call it a bubble or a bull run depends on whether you want to choose a ``boo'' or ``hurrah'' word. Either way, there is no doubting that prices have had a dream run.

The experience of the past few years teaches us that if it looks like a bubble, walks like a bubble, and squeaks like a bubble, then it probably is a sudden attack of ``irrational exuberance.''

Slacker Demand

Two, the global economy is expanding slower. The International Monetary Fund last month predicted that gross domestic product growth would drop to 4.3 percent in 2005 from 5 percent this year. Slower growth will lead to slacker demand for commodities.

Three, supply will start to increase.

The commodity-price surge has led to more investment. Look at some of the companies staging initial public offerings. In the past two months, in London, there have been listings of Mercator Gold Plc, a gold exploration company; European Minerals Corp., which is developing gold and copper deposits in Kazakhstan; and Frontier Mining Plc, which explores for gold.

Those are just three examples. As prices go up, investors are pouring money into businesses that are exploring for new raw materials, or developing existing resources. Naturally, all that will take time. Mines can't be built overnight and supply will increase in the meantime. You don't need to reread Adam Smith to figure out what that will do to prices.

Loose Money

There is, perhaps, a fourth reason, as well. Global interest rates have been at record lows. There is a lot of loose money swilling about. That has to come out as inflation somewhere -- and in many instances it has shown up in commodity prices. Yet the period of ultra-low rates seems to be coming to a close.

That doesn't mean there aren't genuine reasons for the prices of many commodities to rise. World output is growing. New countries are industrializing fast. And it may well be true that under-investment has tightened supply.

All financial bubbles are made out of something other than soap and water. Usually, there are some solid reasons for the wave of investment. For example, the Internet was an exciting new technology for everyone, and house prices have soared in some countries as demographics change.

Yet when the price of anything doubles in a year, there is something else happening. The herd has started to run. And prices are a long way ahead of reality.

It's hard to see commodities continuing their dream run.

To contact the writer of this column:

Matthew Lynn in London at [email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this column:

Bill Ahearn at [email protected].

Last Updated: October 25, 2004 03:35 EDT