主题：【新闻】联想并购 IBM PC -- 任爱杰

CMP TechWeb 12/09/2004

(c) 2004 CMP Media Inc.

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Almost half of the U.S. enterprises who were IBM PC prospects said that they're ready to consider Dell or HP now that the Armonk, N.Y.-based giant is dumping its desktop and laptop business, a research firm reported Thursday.

Earlier this week, IBM sold its PC business to Lenovo Group, China's biggest computer maker, for $1.75 billion in cash and stock. But while IBM executives have been promising that there will be little or no disruption in business as the hand-over takes place, analysts at research firms such as Forrester sang a different tune.

"The problem is that there will be disruption," said Robert McNeill, a senior analyst with Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research.

In a report issued Thursday, McNeill and several Forrester colleagues said that about half -- 48 percent to be exact -- of IBM's prospects for desktop and/or laptops deals would consider switching to Dell or HP.

Forrester's numbers parallel those acquired so far in an InformationWeek instant poll, which asks users to vote on whether they'll look for another PC provider now that IBM is selling off its unit to Lenovo. As of mid-morning Thursday, 52 percent said they would consider another seller, 30 percent said they wouldn't, and 18 percent were undecided.

"The conventional wisdom says that loyalty to IBM, ThinkPad notebooks in particular, runs deep, but our data showed the exact opposite," said McNeill.

In fact, loyalty by IBM's prospects lags behind potential customers of both Dell and Hewlett-Packard. Only 29 percent of Dell's prospects would consider switching, while 41 percent of HP's would think about it.

"Essentially what we're seeing here is confirmation that business buyers' brand loyalty comes down to price," said McNeill. "IBM made a management choice not to compete on price in the desktop and laptop market."

The IBM rival with the most to gain, said McNeill, is HP. Of the almost half of the IBM prospects polled who said they might switch, 43 said they would also consider Dell, 39 percent said they would also look at HP, and 18 percent reported that they'd consider all three.

"On a unit basis, our data suggests that Dell and HP will split any potential IBM defectors evenly," said McNeill. "An even split would increase HP's market share on a percentage basis. We've seen a little bit of resurgence in HP's desktop/laptop business," he added, "and this would built on that momentum."

In November, Forrester released a study reporting that 31 percent of enterprises said they planned to consider HP, an increase of 7 percent since April. Consideration for Dell, meanwhile, actually slipped 1 point.

But HP's job in winning over IBM customers may be harder than it thinks, said McNeill. "HP will have to build a corporate message as to why they're better able to support a PC business [than Dell or IBM] while at the same time growing their service and outsourcing business."

Dell's strategy, in contrast, is crystal clear. "It's very focused, very tightly attached to the box," said McNeill. "But HP is going to have to defend their position to play in this commodity PC business as they also become a more service type of animal."

Analysts have been busy making recommendations and giving advice to current and potential IBM desktop and laptop customers. Forrester, for instance, ended its Thursday report with a note to expect rivals Dell and HP to offer enticing trade-up deals to current customers, while research competitor Gartner said in an online briefing that customers should "use the potential risks of the [Lenovo] deal to negotiate lower prices or better service levels from IBM."