主题：天下大乱_Greece版, G-2当立!_Series4 -- parishg

China and US (special central bank USD reserve swap in 2008). South Korea has credit card problem since early 2000s and never fully recovered. You should read Jing Di Wang Tian's series.

All banks in Iceland were and are illiquid and insolvent. And it still has trouble with British depositors. In terms of international finance, Iceland has been shut off from the western world.

Greece will live through big economic contraction in the next 10 years. Right now, all European banks are cutting their exposure to PIGs and Greek depositors were transferring money overseas to London or Germanic nations(Financial Times). Loss of deposit will result in credit contraction and economic recession at the same time. And currently, Greek banks rely on ECB loans (temporary suspension of all collateral requirements) to maintain their loan book. I am afraid those banks will have to call back loans later.

Greece will not be able to really achieve its budget target for the next 2 years because rapid contraction will eat into tax base and thus tax revenue. It has been predicted by both German and English financial experts.

What really scare ECB right now is NOT greek bond problem--it is actually a banking system problem because banks are afraid of lending to each other. It is a replay of March 2008, just before the Bear Stearns event.

We are not on the same page. So you might misinterpret what I am talking about.