主题：天下大乱_Greece版, G-2当立!_Series4 -- parishg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bu79PWm7fmM&playnext_from=TL&videos=1b7dRhZQWAs

That's the outcome of economic MIS-management. That's what we called "Center/Origin of the Western Civilization".

The key period is March--after that, the collapse of confidence is non-reversible.

As I said before, 2010PIGs=1997 Asia.

I have been warning on this forum since early Feb. By now, many people should be quite rich if you follow my advice on shorting European equity and Euro...

More dramatic moment will come in June. Watch out the stupid show of "lovely" Trichet...

希腊估计是没救了，这是自己找死呢……

英文看的还是很头疼的．．

一遍又一遍的发, 卖弄英语吗? 熊市做LONG, 这点经验都没有, 还SHORT呢, 别烧着屁股.

我居心叵测的等待西方的惨剧和悲剧，结果人家一个个活过来了。像韩国，不但没崩溃，居然活的更好了。甚至连必死的冰岛和迪拜最终都没死。真让我太失望了。

这次希腊看起来悲剧无比，其实结局也不见得多悲惨。我估计好戏是看不到的啦。

毕竟，崩溃哪有那么容易啊。印度的问题那么多都能活得很好，何况这些人。

China and US (special central bank USD reserve swap in 2008). South Korea has credit card problem since early 2000s and never fully recovered. You should read Jing Di Wang Tian's series.

All banks in Iceland were and are illiquid and insolvent. And it still has trouble with British depositors. In terms of international finance, Iceland has been shut off from the western world.

Greece will live through big economic contraction in the next 10 years. Right now, all European banks are cutting their exposure to PIGs and Greek depositors were transferring money overseas to London or Germanic nations(Financial Times). Loss of deposit will result in credit contraction and economic recession at the same time. And currently, Greek banks rely on ECB loans (temporary suspension of all collateral requirements) to maintain their loan book. I am afraid those banks will have to call back loans later.

Greece will not be able to really achieve its budget target for the next 2 years because rapid contraction will eat into tax base and thus tax revenue. It has been predicted by both German and English financial experts.

What really scare ECB right now is NOT greek bond problem--it is actually a banking system problem because banks are afraid of lending to each other. It is a replay of March 2008, just before the Bear Stearns event.

We are not on the same page. So you might misinterpret what I am talking about.

key Euro interest rate (my bet is 70% probability)

Lisbon meeting is going on now. Press release will be late in the afternoon, 2:30pm, Lisbon time, starting--which matches the 9:30am US opening time (5 hours difference).

After the rate cut, European and US market will hike.

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Trichet Says ECB Interest Rates ‘Appropriate’ as Crisis Spreads

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFQogqN9xBWY&pos=1

Cut rate helps banks and ECB reputation, but hurts the key USD-Euro exchange rate and might encourage more capital outflight. To say the current course might hurt banks.

Between rock and a hard place.

bloomberg news report.

--Portugal sounds more and more like the next domino now.

Bank Swaps Surge as Moody’s Raises Sovereign Contagion Alert

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By Abigail Moses

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of protecting European bank bonds from default surged to the highest level in 13 months as Moody’s Investors Service said lenders face “very real, common threats” from the region’s fiscal crisis.

Banking systems in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland and the U.K. may come under pressure as the crisis worsens, Moody’s said in a report today. The ratings firm said yesterday it may downgrade the Portuguese government and its banks after Standard & Poor’s last week cut sovereign debt of Greece, Portugal and Spain.

“The risk is for the banking sector because they’re the ones that own most of the government bonds and in cases of extreme crisis banks rely on governments to bail them out,” said Juan Esteban Valencia, a London-based credit strategist at Societe Generale SA. “If governments can’t issue at relatively normal levels, it’s going to be very difficult to bail out banks and that means banks are getting hammered.”

The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit-default swaps on 25 banks and insurers soared as much as 19 basis points to 167, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices, the highest level since April 3, 2009. An increase signals deterioration in the perception of credit quality.

‘Common Threat’

The risk to the banks is “more as a consequence of the pressures on the sovereign rather than due to their own inherent creditworthiness,” the Moody’s analysts wrote. “Market sentiment can be sufficiently strong, and longlasting, to create its own reality and expose all these countries to a common threat.”

The European Central Bank’s Governing Council is meeting today in Lisbon, with President Jean-Claude Trichet under pressure to do more to calm markets after the pledge of a 110 billion-euro ($142 billion) bailout for Greece from euro-area countries and the International Monetary Fund failed to assuage investors’ concerns.

Credit-default swaps on Spanish and Portuguese banks rose to records, according to CMA DataVision prices. Portugal’s Banco Comercial Portugues SA increased 37 basis points to 516 and Banco Espirito Santo SA climbed 26.5 to 537.5. Contracts on Spain’s Banco Santander SA rose 16.5 basis points to 223.5 and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA jumped 17.5 to 239.

Greek Debt Swaps

Swaps on Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy rose to or near all-time high levels. Swaps on Greece surged 15 basis points to 859, Portugal climbed 18.5 to 434, Spain increased 11 to 241 and Italy rose 10 to 197, CMA prices show.

Contracts on the U.K. rose 1.5 basis points to 87.5, CMA prices show. Britain votes today in an election that polls show may produce no parliamentary majority for the first time since 1974, stoking concern the new government will be too weak to rein in its record budget deficit.

The cost of default protection on corporate debt also increased, with the Markit iTraxx Europe index of swaps linked to 125 companies with investment-grade ratings up as much as 11.75 basis points to 117.5, JPMorgan prices show, the highest level since July. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed as much as 44 basis points to 525, the highest level since Nov. 30.

A basis point on a credit-default swap protecting 10 million euros of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.

Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

To contact the reporter on this story: Abigail Moses in London at [email protected]

Last Updated: May 6, 2010 07:23 EDT

羞愧，回去重学英语中

Today, US gov. started to support the stock market again around 2:30pm, Eastern Time. The fall was astonishing, just like a big rock...

All financial assets (except gov. bonds and gold) keep on falling. Bid-ask spreads are so huge that transactions stop for many assets.

DJI once fell by 500 points and SP500 touched 1100, amazing...

impact today.

to get into the long position on US equity?