主题：【讨论】基辛格发表文章：乌克兰，怎么办？ -- 愚弟

　　美国前国务卿基辛格在《华盛顿邮报》撰文，称倘要化解乌克兰危机，俄罗斯与西方要各让一步。他提出4项原则，包括让乌克兰自由选择对外政经关系但不加入北约，避免引起俄罗斯敌意等等。他坦言这些原则无法令所有人满意，但在乌克兰问题上不能「绝对满足」，而是要在不满足中寻求平衡，否则对抗将会升级。

　　各让一步寻平衡 防对抗升级

　　基辛格指出，乌克兰要生存及繁荣，必须充当西方跟俄罗斯的桥樑，而非两大阵营对抗的桥头堡。他认为，俄罗斯要明白，若迫使乌克兰变成其卫星国，只会惹西方反弹，重陷入历史循环；西方亦要明白，乌克兰对俄罗斯而言永远不是一个外国，俄乌两国历史交错，就算是俄国异见者索贊尼辛等人也认为乌克兰是俄罗斯历史及俄罗斯的一部分。

　　基辛格强调，乌克兰人是解决问题的决定因素，他认为在独立仅23年的乌克兰，政客不懂妥协，也缺乏历史视野，不肯分享权力，但若该国继续按照过去一贯模式，一方试图凌驾另一方，只会造成内战甚至分裂。而若将乌克兰变成俄罗斯与西方两大阵营对决的一部分，只会令双方多年来发展国际合作机制的努力化为乌有。

　　倡乌国效法芬兰维持中立

　　基辛格指出，美国的明智做法应是寻求乌国两方合作，并非支持一方佔尽优势。但他批评，西方、俄国及乌克兰各方目前都未能依照这原则行事，结果令局势恶化。他认为，西方妖魔化普京，只是掩饰缺乏对策的藉口。他说，普京的确不太明白美国价值和心理，但美国政客也同样不太明白俄罗斯历史和心理。他呼吁各方应检视可能出路，而非争相摆姿态。

　　他提出4点建议，希望可促成平衡各方价值及安全利益的结果﹕

　　1）乌克兰应有权自由选择其对外政治及经济关系；

　　2）乌克兰不应加入北约；

　　3）乌克兰有权建立符合人民意愿的政府，并促成国内不同势力和解。它在国际上应效法芬兰，跟西方建立联系，但避免对俄敌意（美国知名外交政策专家布热津斯基早前亦主张用「芬兰模式」解决乌克兰困局）；

　　4）俄国承认乌克兰对克里米亚主权；而克里米亚享有更大自治权。

来自【明報專訊】

How the Ukraine Crisis Ends [Henry Kissinger]

The Washington Post ^ | March 5, 2014 | Henry Kissinger

Posted on March 5, 2014 3:54:07 PM PST by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3130033/posts

Public discussion on Ukraine is all about confrontation. But do we know where we are going? In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins. Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other — it should function as a bridge between them. Russia must accept that to try to force Ukraine into a satellite status, and thereby move Russia’s borders again, would doom Moscow to repeat its history of self-fulfilling cycles of reciprocal pressures with Europe and the United States. The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus. The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries, and their histories were intertwined before then. Some of the most important battles for Russian freedom, starting with the Battle of Poltava in 1709 , were fought on Ukrainian soil. The Black Sea Fleet — Russia’s means of projecting power in the Mediterranean — is based by long-term lease in Sevastopol, in Crimea. Even such famed dissidents as Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Joseph Brodsky insisted that Ukraine was an integral part of Russian history and, indeed, of Russia.