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主题:专业化救灾 -- 大山猫

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家园 这个病现在是隔离得快,要是慢的话恐怕感染人数上千万

去年10月美国霍普金斯大学做过一个冠状病毒感染的模拟测试,Event201,模拟的结果是感染6500万。这次武汉冠状病毒感染发生后,不少人拿这件事情来预测结果,当然是不对的。

下面是他们的完整声明:

In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019.

来源:http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/newsroom/center-news/2020-01-24-Statement-of-Clarification-Event201.html

考虑到美国的尼克松总统虽然签署了《禁止生物武器公约》,但小布什却拒绝签署实施条例,相反,列届美国行政当局不断强化“Biological Select Agents and Toxins"的执行。这个BSAT计划名为防御,却明列多种细菌和病毒, 防止敌国对美国的恐怖袭击,其中就有我们耳熟能详的几种细菌和病毒:

鼠疫

冠状病毒

非洲猪瘟病毒

禽流感

古典猪瘟病毒

流感病毒

高度致病性禽流感H5N1病毒

埃博拉病毒

以上是不是我们这几年的老朋友?过去几年把全世界搅得天翻地覆。

我以前一直对美国可能发动生物战持中性偏否定的态度,但这两天看了一些资料,立场有点动摇。如果这些病毒和细菌无法用于攻击,美国人怕什么?既然害怕,为什么不签署国际公约?

通宝推:心有戚戚,
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