主题：请大家评一评当年的国储期铜案 -- 洗心

Making deliver is actually the right decision at that moment. If you cover in the futures market, the loss will be even much bigger. This event actually marks an intermediate high of copper and it subsequently went through a big correction and 国储中心 could well buy back their inventory cheaper. Of course you could also default on the contracts. Short term there will be a lot of out cry, long term probably no big deal as remeber the brokers have a short memory. After a while, they would forget everything and it will be business as usual.

The problem with 刘其兵 is he might be a good arbitrage trader, but he is obviously a terrible directional trader and to make things worse, he let him greed overtake him.

这可是商业合同啊,要玩期货,这么点自觉都没有,以后谁卖你东西?当年也不是没有应对之策,河里陈大,参将都有帖子讲的.但要某个政府部门来出面,承担风险来试图减小损失的话,谁能用什么方法,那就大是问题,因为一旦失手就完蛋,不会有哪个官员敢冒险的.最后也只能这样了.毕竟现在的解决方法,是风险最小的.

要说愚蠢,连个hedge的多仓都没有就裸空才是愚蠢,才是真的被绿票子烧昏了,交易员的水平是一回事,整个中国金融界的水平也同样是个问题.另外国储局的职责所在,是稳定铜价,操作上就应该是以hedge为重,不能牟利甚至偶尔小亏一点都是可以接受的.硬要去冒险搏利,管理制度上漏洞恐怕不小,刘交易员自己胆大包天,背后恐怕故事不少.

过去这5年,如果有胆子,多金多油多铜,都是发大了的.可是利润总伴随风险,比如这位刘交易员就押错了宝.比如投资黑石/BSC也是.如果03年多的是大豆,按范兄的文章,也有不知道多少人在黎明前就见外婆了.要放马后炮指责决策者是最容易的,这个不是醒不醒的问题,是1万亿美元,究竟应该以什么样的风险,去搏什么样的利润的问题.

要我说,拿美国国债就是很好的选择.要么你美国就此彻底沉沦,你要起来了,兄弟我至少能喝口汤.选哪样,反正我吃的亏不比你大,勉强是个win win,人家不会把你怎么样.买资源只是中策而已,因为这个是0和游戏,你赢的一定是别人亏的.大家都是搏命,其实也就是搏傻.在虚拟资产超过实物资产若干倍的世界里,水平稍微差点,被人爆仓太小case了,刘交易员要建的是200万吨的多仓,这铜价肯定是另外一个故事.