主题：【原创】新年政治经济展望之四：金融资本（一） -- 井底望天

美元会大跌。

中日用人民币结算，是迟早的是。人民币和日元绑在一起，可以和美元规模差不多了。

第二个消息，考虑到现在的外汇空头，大多是压欧元，撤杠杆就会逼得很多人平仓，这样美元就会跌下来。

这样做，要么就是钱已经圈回来了，要么就是美元贬值，压迫人民币升值，因为美元升值，欧洲人就对人民币没有太多意见。

Google's decision signals change in Western businesses' approach to China

google的决定标志着西方公司对中国态度的改变

By John Pomfret

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

华盛顿邮报记者

BEIJING -- The showdown between Google and the world's most populous country marks a turning point in one of the great alliances of the late 20th century -- the bond between Western capitalists and Beijing's authoritarian system.

谷歌和世界人口最多国家的摊牌标志着20世纪世界最大联盟之一出现了分歧----西方资本家与北京专制者的联盟。

After Google's audacious decision to confront China over the issue of censorship, officials here insisted Tuesday that the Internet giant's case was an isolated one and would not affect China's opening to the West or its market-oriented reforms.

在谷歌大胆抗议了中国的审查制度后，当地官员于星期二表示网络巨头只是一个独立事件，不会影响中国的开放和市场改革。

But Western businesspeople said the episode had underscored a broader sea change in how U.S. and European companies deal with the government here. More specifically, they said, Western businesses have begun to push back openly against China.

但是西方企业家认为这次事件已经极大改变了美国及欧洲公司与当地政府的合作方式。更具体的说，西方企业家们开始公然向中国施压。

In announcing Monday that it would stop censoring results on its Chinese site, Google acknowledged that it was "well aware" that the Beijing government "could at any time block access to our services." But the company also made clear that such an outcome would be better than having to censor itself any longer.

星期一宣布将停止谷歌的审查后，google意识到北京政府可以随时屏蔽他们的服务。但是他们也清楚这种结果比他们继续自我审查要好。

Although China has not yet taken any draconian action against Google or its employees, it has started censoring results for sensitive searches in China on Google's Hong Kong-based Web site, where its users on the mainland have been redirected. (Hong Kong users could see uncensored results.)

虽然中国还没有对谷歌及其雇员采取任何严厉措施，google还是在香港的网站上过滤掉了敏感搜索，大陆的访问被重新定向。（香港的使用者可以看到未审查结果）。

There were also signs that China wants to punish Google in other ways. On Tuesday, a Hong Kong-based Internet company, TOM Online, announced that it had stopped using Google's search tools. TOM is owned by the family of Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong's richest man and a supporter of the Communist government. Meanwhile, analysts said two major state-owned mobile phone companies on the mainland, China Mobile, with 500 million users, and China Unicom, China's second biggest, were rethinking deals with Google.

有证据表明中国政府将通过其他方式惩罚google。星期二，香港网络公司，TOM在线，宣布停止使用google搜索工具。TOM属于香港首富兼中共支持者李嘉诚家族所有。同时，分析者认为大陆两大国有移动公司，拥有5亿用户的中国移动，及第二大的中国联通，将重新考虑与谷歌的合作。

Analysts say that China's willingness to stand up to Western firms is a consequence of its meteoric economic rise. The government doesn't need Westerners' investment as much as it once did, and it is increasingly bald-faced about its desire to acquire their technology.

分析者认为中国敢于对抗西方公司是基于自身高速的增长。中国政府不象以前那样依赖于西方的投资，并且开始日益赤裸裸地要求获得他们的技术。

"The Google affair is both catalyst and evidence of change," said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economics firm. "We are at a turning point. It had been very, very unusual for foreign business to say anything too negative about China because the opportunities here were too large."

“谷歌事件既是改变的证据也是催化剂，” Arthur Kroeber ，Dragonomics（龙洲经讯，一个北京的经济公司）的常务董事说，“我们处于一个转折点。对于外国公司来说发表针对中国的不利言论非同寻常，因为这里的机会太大了。”

Indeed, for decades, Western businesses have been Beijing's closest friends. When Congress railed against China over human rights issues and threatened to revoke its most-favored-nation trading status in the 1990s, the American Chamber of Commerce in China and other groups flocked to Washington to state Beijing's case. The last major Western company to openly confront the Chinese government was Levi Strauss, which withdrew from the country over what it called China's "pervasive violation of human rights."

实际上，数十年来，西方商人都是北京的最亲密朋友。当国会指责中国人权问题并于90年代威胁取消最惠国待遇时，中国美国商会及其他组织就涌向华盛顿声援北京。最后一个公开反对中国政府的西方公司是Levi Strauss（levis牛仔裤），他撤出中国宣称是由于“中国普遍存在的人权问题”。（译者注：1993年的时候买这个牛仔裤的还没有多少人吧，08年又滚回来了。）

But more recently, Western businesses have begun to voice concerns about their treatment in China. The European Chamber of Commerce has issued reports over the past several years that say China's business environment is deteriorating. One report accused China of embracing "economic nationalism"; another said China had effectively halted economic reform.

但是最近，西方公司开始担心他们在中国的待遇。欧洲商会已经发布了过去数年中国商业环境恶化的报告。该报告宣称中国实行“经济民族主义”(经济国家主义)，同时称中国实际上已经停止经济改革。

"In 2009, China was one of only two major growth markets in the world, but the door here isn't opening wider, it's narrowing," said the chamber's president, Joerg Wuttke. "China talks about opening up, but in fact local implementation is not just really bad, it's worsening."

“2009年，中国是世界上两个主要增长市场之一，但是这里的大门并不是更加敞开，而是逐渐缩小，”商会主席Joerg Wuttke说，“中国谈论开放，但是实际上当地的实施不仅仅是糟糕，实际是日益恶化。”

Even the American Chamber of Commerce in China, which has long been a friendly venue for the Chinese government, has gotten into the act. On Monday, it issued a report that said business confidence among 203 members surveyed was at its lowest point since polling began four years ago.

甚至中国美国商会，中国政府支持者的中心，也开始采取行动。星期一，该商会发表了一份报告称自从四年前开始调查以来，203个成员的商业信心指数目前处于最低点。

And in December, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington took the unprecedented step of organizing a joint letter, signed by 33 business associations from around the world, criticizing China for a plan that would force foreign companies to hand over their prized intellectual property and trademarks to China if they wanted to keep selling goods here.

十二月，华盛顿美国商会史无前例的提交了一份联合抗议信，由33个世界各地的商业组织签名，指责中国的一个计划将迫使外国公司交出他们最有价值的知识产权和商标，如果他们还想在中国做生意的话。

Joe Studwell, an author who has followed the perils for Western businesses in China for more than a decade, said the change in tone was part of a "new realism" toward China.

Joe Studwell，一个随同西方公司进入中国超过十年的作家说，实际上这种改变是中国“新现实主义”的一部分。

Businesses now understand, he said, that the "unspoken arrangement with China is coming unstuck." China is not opening its markets, nor is it allowing its currency to increase in value, as many had assumed it would.

商人们现在认识到，他说，与中国政府的潜规则开始失灵了，不再像设想的那样，中国不再开放市场，也不允许货币升值。

Relations between China and world's business leaders, however, are still strong. Among the Fortune 500 companies, 480 have investments in China. There are 660,000 foreign companies represented in the country. Foreign direct investment, after wavering last year during the global financial crisis, seems to have rebounded, with an estimated $7 billion to $8 billion a month flowing into China. With its 8 percent growth rate in 2009 and more of the same predicted for this year, China remains one of the only bright spots in the relatively dim firmament of global business today.

中国和世界商业领袖之间的关系实际上仍然牢固。500强公司有480个在中国投资。660，000个国外公司在中国设立办事处。国外直接投资，经过去年全球金融危机的震荡后，看起来又开始反弹了，估计每月有70亿至80亿美元资金流入中国。2009年的增长率达到8%而今年预计会更高，中国仍然是全球经济目前灰暗的天空中的唯一亮点。

And there are still Western business leaders who put a positive spin on the relationship.

并且仍然有西方商业领袖对这种关系持积极观点。

Michael Barbalas, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, said his group's expanding profile reflects not a souring on China but a realization that political changes have mandated a more boisterous approach.

Michael Barbalas，北京美国商会主席说，他们商会的扩张考虑不会基于对中国的厌恶，而是基于认识到政治的改变正在以一种更加激烈的方式进行。

Ten years ago, for example, China allowed comments on very few, if any, of its laws. Last year it allowed foreign interests to comment on 300 pieces of legislation, he said.

例如，十年前中国基本不允许评论他的法律，去年允许国外利益相关者评论300条法规，他说。

"As China opens up these laws for comment, we found a lot of special interests speaking out," Barbalas said. "So we had to up our game."

“既然中国开放这些法律的评论，我们可以表达许多相关利益，” Barbalas说，“所以我们应该进行适应。”

Chinese officials insist the Google case is unrelated to the broader business climate here. After the Internet giant made its announcement Monday, Microsoft indicated that it would continue to "comply with the laws in every country in which we operate," disappointing human rights advocates.

中国官员宣称google的事件与中国的商业环境没有关联。网络巨头星期一发表声明后，微软声明将继续与遵守所在国家的法律，这使许多人权拥护者失望。

In fact, no one expects another Google to confront China soon. But the Internet giant's willingness to do so is a sign of the times.

实际上，没有人期待立即会出现另一个google对抗中国。但是，网络巨头的自发行动表明了一种趋势。

Meanwhile, how China treats Google going forward is widely viewed here as a test case. The government could force the firm out of China entirely, or it could allow Google to be a symbol of a new kind of relationship with Western companies -- one in which foreigners can do business here without feeling compelled to kowtow to the political system. Many analysts view the latter scenario as highly unlikely.

同时，中国怎样对待google将被广泛视为一种试探反应。中国政府可以将这个公司完全赶出中国，或者也可以使google成为与西方公司新关系的标志----国外商人可以在此做生意而不需要向政治制度低头。许多分析者认为后一种情况基本不可能出现。

"Tactically, yelling at Google is unwise," said Rebecca MacKinnon, a visiting fellow at Princeton University's Center for Technology Policy. But "how they handle Google is either going to contribute to reassuring foreign companies that you can do business in a rational manner or to convincing them the regulatory environment is so politicized that you have to prove your loyalty."

“战术上来说，向google咆哮是不明智的，”普林斯顿大学技术政策中心访问学者Rebecca MacKinnon说，但是“他们怎样处理google，有助于使国外公司放心的以一种理性的方式做生意，或者使他们明白监管环境如此政治化而你必须证明你的忠诚。”

"If I were China on this case, I would declare victory," she added, "and then walk away."

“这种情况下如果我是中国，我将宣布胜利，”她补充到，“然后走开。”

Staff writer Ellen Nakashima in Washington contributed to this report.