主题：【商榷】美国正式走出衰退，开宰中国肥猪的号角吹响了 -- 过来看井大

美国国家经济研究中心宣布，进三年来最大的就业政府和工资增幅，充分说明（Pretty Clear）美国经济已经开始复苏。

于此同时，财长盖特纳对媒体宣布，他有充分信心（strong confidence）中国会在近期内把人民币升值。

美国如果说90年代的目标是伊拉克，90-2000年目标是所谓拉登为首的恐怖主义，因为美国“工作重心”的转移，中国争取到了8-9年时间。

那么现在，恐怖主义奄奄一息，伊拉克傀儡政府上台，俄罗斯走向山穷水尽，中国这头大肥猪就等着被刚刚喘过一口气的美国盯上了。

可以肯定的是，美国未来工作的重心和目标就是中国这头肥猪。宰之，后分裂之。

美国最厉害的武器就是中国国内的“第五纵队”，尤其在金融界的胡士泰们。这次人民币升值，罕有的中国金融界呼应美国的好召，准备一起开宰自己的祖国。

我去年8月份的时候，国内很大一个PE的真的网络超强（不是国内那些爱吹的）的老板（方风雷级别的）来纽约，我们在时代华纳中心楼下餐厅喝咖啡。

他挤眉弄眼、声情并茂的对我说，刚刚见了易纲，人民币升定值了。我说，说这话时间太早了吧？况且那个时候，美国政府还没有像现在那么“凶残”的逼迫人民币升值。他说，早就定下来了，需要一个过程，类似唱一下双簧。他强调说，他把全副个人资产都赌进去了，还和别人豪赌。

我在这里说谎有什么意思呢？我前两个月回国，更是深感金融界为亲美派精英把持，美国才是他们的祖国。很多人很痛恨中国政府，因为中国政府限制金融市场的自由，要不然，他们人人都成了索罗斯了。

意识形态领域早就崩溃，人人都是有今天没有明天，急着狂挣一笔走人。要不就是极端毛派，要不就是极端PUSSY价值、亲美派，或者就是大部分各种利益阶级的代言人，没有人真正为国家利益操心的。即使操心，也没有操到点子上，要么就是离真正的信息太远，说的话打不着边。

美国渡过危机，而中国未来非常危险。我们在这里干着急。看着中国崩盘吧。

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anchxA58Qep0&pos=1

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

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By Steve Matthews

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest increase in employment in three years makes it “pretty clear” the deepest U.S. recession since the 1930s has ended, said the head of the group charged with making the call.

Payrolls rose by 162,000 workers last month, the third gain in the past five months and the most since March 2007, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington.

“I personally put lots of emphasis on employment,” Robert Hall, who heads the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, said in an interview. “I would say ‘pretty clear’ is a good deion” for whether the economic contraction has ended, he said.

Among the top indicators the group uses is payrolls, according to its Web site. The government revised the January and February job count up by a combined 62,000, putting the March gain at 224,000 after including the updated data.

“It’s great news that employment has finally stopped shrinking,” Hall, a Stanford University professor, said.

Today’s report showed the payroll count from the government’s survey of businesses and the employment numbers from a separate survey of households have both been heading higher, Hall said.

“That is looking better now,” he said. “I think the odds favor a continuing expansion in employment, but I don’t have great confidence.”

Growth Outlook

The economy probably grew by 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg News survey of economists last month, after a 5.6 percent pace of expansion in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The committee waits to make a declaration until it can precisely date the start or end of a contraction, which usually takes six to 18 months, according to its Web site.

“Our committee will continue to operate in a deliberate model,” Hall said.

The panel has lagged declarations of other economists partly because it depends on payrolls, among the last economic indicators to show growth. The National Association for Business Economics in October 2009 said the recession had ended, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in September 2009 the contraction “very likely” had stopped.

“Speaking personally, it now seems very clear that the recession has ended,” said another panel member, Harvard University professor Jeffrey Frankel, in an interview today. Frankel has said the most likely date for the recession’s end would be midyear of 2009.

Economic output has been rising since around June or July, he said, while employment has only recently started to rise.

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Matthews in Atlanta at [email protected];