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主题：2nd wave of European trouble -- parishg
家园 2nd wave of European trouble Starting from this Tuesday, trouble from Italian gov. bonds have spread to the bonds of Netherlands, France, Belgium and Austria. Several eastern European nations have trouble in containing their national debt rate.
The European "Titanic" is now full of holes: the blowout of Spanish gov. bond yield could be the newspaper headline at any moment, let alone the trouble from Italy and any probable new bombs from Greece.
Thursday's U.S. stock market is quite interesting...
家园 这位大哥， 你是做交易员的么，还是做分析师呀
家园 兄弟们今天发财了吗? haha. 家园 两个月过去，兄弟小有斩获！ 两个月前分批吃进了小型股(相当于RUSSELL2000指数，IWM)，目前为止约有近10%的利润，上得有点快，趋势也许还会继续，但我不管了，按原方案先撤再说，相信今后还有机会的。
欧洲还会继续有事吧？掌握得好，其实对我等散户是机会。兄台有空能否继续写写今年的大体展望及操作思路？谢谢！
家园 you need to watch late Feb ECB action.
Fed Reserve has run out of bullet and only thing it can say is: 0% interest rate for another one more year.
ECB is now effectively doing QE now in the European market and its spillover effect lifts all equity market due to new liquidity injection into the global market (yes, carry trade is helping everyone).
But ECB's approach has fundamental problem and can backfire in many unepxected ways.
2012 is a technical trading year: you buy when the market is oversold and sell when everyone is too optimistic. Just take advantage of the swing.
Volatility will be back sooner or late.
家园 希腊暂时没事了 兄台看法如何？是否还是看多美债？
股市可能还有一段好日子，但兄弟我最近调低了仓位，正在在寻找其它机会。我的分析是：长期美债仍然是不错的选择，就算去年以来上升超过三成，还有上涨空间，而且风险比股市小。最近有些回落，刚好是机会。我的退休账户只有TIP，准备加码。其他账户准备加码TLT。
家园 congratulations! Happy Year of Dragon!
家园 汇报一下最近情况及思路 请勿见笑，多多指教！
一直观察欧洲情况，七月底以来股市剧烈震荡，主要是欧洲所致。我自己参与股市主要是退休账户，只能单边做多，所以慢慢吃进了高beta的小型股，地产，新兴市场基金。到上月底，都有些利润了，又减了仓位。我弄了一个很粗糙的模型，主要根据均线与升降速度判断进离场，当然还要看宏观面，如现在欧债，到目前为止，还算可以。
现在我的看法是：看空欧，看多美，至少到明年初，美股上升机会大于下降，所以我准备再拿出portfolio的5%，逢低吃进高beta的小型股，过年左右再相机出场。如果赔了，觉得也有限，因为按美股规律，这一段大跌机会不大。大不了原来利润又吐出去罢了。兄台看法如何？
家园 我亏了。 兄台有时间的时候，请讲讲欧元区危机和美股大盘的关系。我之前猜想那些买了国债的钱不是该到美国来投资下么，怎么美股掉头有往下了？
- 复 我亏了。
家园 I am so shocked by your message.
My first-floor message is clear: avoid stocks or even short stocks.
I could not believe that you still long stocks when crisis is just emerging now...
家园 hehe I didn't long or short any stocks, except for a penny stock, which I bought many years ago when it was not a penny stock :).
My lost was in forex market.
I just wonder what do you mean when you say
Thursday's U.S. stock market is quite interesting...before the market was open. How the crisis in Euro zone will affect the US stock market? If the crisis goes down, will the US market goes down as well or go the opposite?
家园 现在我们都是债券交易者 哈哈，欧洲债券带着欧美跑，欧美带着股市跑。。。
- 复 我亏了。
家园 好像欧元兑美元和美国股市有比较强的正相关 当然最近这些日子应该又是美元流动性稀缺的时候了，刚看到一句话：有钱的时候买金子避险，没钱的时候卖金子攒钱。另外，1 month libor从八月份开始涨了1/3。但是我又觉得金子和流动性没有必然的联系，至少1 month LIBOR年初相对比较紧张的时候金子也在上升，也许和利比亚有关？
家园 it reflects the fear I mean the Euro/USD exchange rate.
家园 讲讲今天interesting的地方？ 本人洗耳恭听。
个人现在觉得市场已经又是阴谋，又是阳谋，够乱，听说Paulson liquid了1/3的金子仓位，不知真假了。