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主题：【原创】严重不理解为什么身边那么多人看好美国经济的未来？ -- 南人北相
家园 在西西河，这方面的话题你不能这么说实话 你这不是打击小将们的爱国热忱吗？你要说，兔纸不能乱，时间在我们这边。
通宝推：parishg,家园 but it is also true that US will experience low growth for the next 5 years or even a mild recession soon in 2013.
The reason is very simple: after a period of massive credit expansion, it takes long time to deleverage. It is a common phenomenon in the US economic history.
But the most dangerous time has passed after Hank Paulson pushed Lehman into BK and Hank-Tim-Ben rescued the US financial system.
家园 教授能说说欧洲接下来的走势吗？ 马上IMF要对希腊开始审计；
德国宪法法院对ESM做出裁决；
荷兰大选；
西班牙要决定是否正是申请救助；
意大利好像安静一点了；
葡萄牙又说钱不够了；
德国经济形势也开始不乐观了。。。。
不知道下面形式会怎么发展
家园 those are trivial issues watch French economy closely.
Some surprising news from France in 2013 will be the tipping point.
The ECB will do extreme things to calm the market. Now is not a good time to fight ECB.
Everybody is just borrowing time.
Remember how Americans really fix their banking system?--it is by bank recapitalization in 1990 and 2009.So did the Swedes in early 1990s. Any liquidity measure is just borrowing time.
In the end, people need to use German money to recapitalize banks in PIIGs nations. Without that, the can is just kicked to the next block and deleveraging is still going on in Europe.
家园 法国刚刚宣布国有化CIF 该国第二大mortgage公司。
此外，西班牙的银行资金外逃太多，所以只好在市场上抛售西班牙国债。美国人这手法看的真爽，不用他不停的亲手往下砸，只要出发临界值，欧洲银行就会自己抛售他们最不应该抛售的国债。
家园 谢谢教授回复，另外 请问有哪些领先指标可以提前预示您所说的法国的bad news?市场上总是会有嗅觉灵敏的smart money提前闻风而动。。。
另外如果德国（外加荷兰、芬兰等）出钱注资欧猪甚至法国银行的话，德国会要求什么可以实现的政治经济回报而不会引起德国和受援助国家的强烈反弹呢？Banking Union? 现在所搞的3%统一财政赤字红线已经引起很大反弹了。
教授认为欧洲大约还要多久能走出困境？到时候会有什么标志性的事件吗？
谢谢！
家园 did you notice that France is back in recession again? two quarters of negative GDP growth.
The fundamentals are deteriorating every day, but arrogant French roosters are still roaming around EU, pretending that they are the master of EU.
ECB is mainitaining the game well, FOR NOW.
家园 现在欧洲是有德国一头独大的问题 Financial Times上有一篇评论文章“The making of a German Europe”
提到：
Under President Franois Hollande, however, any notion that France is playing an equal role to Germany has disappeared......French officials also no longer play the crucial role they once did at the heart of Europe....不过最近还看到另一个报道，说西班牙上个月历史性的实现了贸易顺差，主要原因是高失业率导致工资成本急剧下降，另外西班牙努力开拓非洲、拉美等新的出口市场，再加上大家没钱导致进口大幅下降。实乃几十年未见之奇迹，就是不知道能持续多久。
家园 美国要是只注重本国经济当然没有问题。但。。。