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主题：【原创】炒金记 -- MRandson
家园 【原创】炒金记 首先声明，这个东西不作任何投资指导。实际上，黄金的投资收益相比基金和股票都是很低的。风险越大的东西，收益越大，市场的基本规律嘛。与基金和股票相比，黄金不过保值而已。想发大财的诸位，还是去看月色的基金系列和老拙的股票系列。如果还想挣得多，就去读陈经的政治与经济关系问题。不多说了，自己体会。
言归正传。
本人两大爱好：一是贪财，二是好色。
阿来在《尘埃落定》里面提到土司家喜欢把所有的财富换成银子，装在箱子里。呵呵，典型的马克思讲货币崇拜。我与土司是心有戚戚然，不过，我是对黄金而不是白银颇有好感。
读硕士的时候，我做的论文就是中国汇率政策研究方面的课题。其中提到的一个观点，是未来的国际金融市场将发生巨大变动。欧元替代美圆的过程中，世界金融市场将更加混乱。贵金属（比如黄金白银）由于具有货币和商品双重属性，所以价格将稳步上升。不论最后世界货币格局是人民币、欧元、美圆三足鼎立还是其中某一家或两家做大，贵金属都将更加值钱。
理论是理论，还要有实践。
实践之中，黄金价格主要与三个要素有关：
首先是石油。石油的价格越高，通货膨胀就越高。通货膨胀高，黄金就值钱。现在的石油价格是如日中天，想下降都难。黄金自然也一路高歌。
其次是美圆。美圆下跌，大家就都买黄金规避美圆下跌的风险。当年上海金圆券下跌的时候，不是也是有（金）条有理吗。
还有是世界政治风险。这个道理也简单，一打仗，大家就都买黄金啊。逃难的时候，一小块黄金比一大沓子钞票好携带多了。而且各处都认，世界通行。带不走的话，还可以刨个坑埋了。
选择投资黄金主要有三个原因。
首先，黄金不容易坐庄。坐庄一支股票，少则几千万，多则十几亿就够了。坐庄黄金可没那么简单。考虑到世界人民的购买力，和黄金拥有良，没有百八十亿美圆，别打黄金的主意。当然不容易坐庄，不是不能被坐庄。这个后面会提到。
其次，黄金是实实在在的贵金属。即使被套住，迟早也有解套的那一天。相比之下，股票和基金就难说了。
再次，我这个人比较懒，懒得挨只股票，挨个基金去分析，去优中选优。世界金价，全球就一个，不用分析那么多。
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这篇文章，四月一日早就约了。一直没写，一是忙，二是觉得自己经验不足。季布一诺，值千金。最近心情不好，权且写出来，聊作散心吧。其实，欠的东西还很多，比如和平的《非典运动》，慢慢来吧。
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)- 复 【原创】炒金记
家园 haha~ 提示:
24小时内给同一个人送花的上限为6！
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- 复 【原创】炒金记
家园 最近事忙, 没空陪侃, 花是大大的有滴 - 复 【原创】炒金记
家园 有谁对JIN.TO 有了解的能不能谈谈看法？谢了 家园 好股票，可是我不能多说
- 复 【原创】炒金记
家园 在美国买黄金的选择 这是我在fatwallet上看来的，觉得满有用得的。
Credit goes to gandhis on fatwallet
Type A: Buy Physical gold
Generic Cons for physical gold
Long term Gains are also taxed at 30-33%
Gold has some industrial/ornamental usage but for the most part, Gold by itself is not a productive asset. It does not earn interest, does not earn dividend. In fact, it costs money to hold it.
Option A1: Buy from local coin dealer.
Pros:
no shipping risk
probably good customer service
Cons:
Wider spread when buying/selling
You will have to worry about storage
Option A2: Buy from mail order / internet
Pros:
slightly lower spread when buying
Cons:
Wider spread when selling
Shipping risk
You will have to worry about storage
Possibly bad customer service
Option A3: Buy Perth Mint Certificate An century old storage backed by Australian govt.
Pros:
Smaller spread
No shipping risk
Very low credit default risk
No storage worries
Cons:
2% transaction fee for buying. 1% for selling
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Type B: Buy Digital gold
Generic Pros for digital gold
No shipping/storage risk
Easy liquiditiy
Low commission
Option B1: Buy the ETF called GLD
Pros:
Very small spread
Very low credit default risk
Cons:
Long term Gains are also taxed at 30-33% unless held in retirement a/c
Option B2: Buy the fund called CEF. It is 55% gold and 45% silver.
Pros:
Biggest PRO: Long term gains are 15%
Pays dividend (very very little)
Cons:
You will pay anywhere between 6-9% premium to NAV but maybe worth it given tax benefit
Option B3: Buy Gold CD's from Everbank.com
Your return will wildly differ from the price of gold but principal may be safer. (may not be FDIC safe)
Option B4: Buy goldmoney.com units.
I have not researched this option but may be worth looking into.
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Type C: Buy Gold mining stocks
The performance of mining stock may be better or worse than the performance of Gold for quite a few reasons such as
1. how smartly did the company hedge its gold production (biggest concern)
2. management factors such as making a stupid acquisition (notice the recent drops in KGC,GG) or making a smart decision (notice spurt in GLG)
3. There are some gold pure play (eg NEM) but a lot of Gold mining companies also mine other metals (eg BHP, AAUK etc) So their stock performance also depends on general economy and how other metals perform.
Pros:
No storage worries
Some stock generate dividends (such as AAUK)
Long term gains are taxed at 15%
Cons:
Some gold stocks are traded on bulletin boards and border on pump-n-dump frauds.
Mining operations are prone to social / environmental activism
Political risks in countries where mines are located. A lot of Latin American countries are leaning Left and giving headaches to mining companies. Notice fluctuations in PAAS leading up to elections in Peru and the rise of Mr. Hamala
家园 这上面有点错误 ETF除了GLD以外还有IAU(利益申报我两个都有），前者先出来，后者迟差不多一年，因为两者都是每年0.4%的管理费，所以前者的NPV略低，因为多了一年的管理费。
黄金白银在美国不根据收入税capital gains打税，都是根据collectibles, ETF也一样，28%,在IRA户口中买不上税，所以我整个IRA全是黄金白银。
澳洲的股市是世界上第一支黄金ETF诞生的地方，GLD没有面世前美国金甲虫都是下去澳洲股市买ETF, 所以澳洲的网友可以在ASX上买黄金。
