主题：新的铁幕 -- 晨枫

匈牙利提出的主要面向东欧的1900亿欧元的救援基金被西欧否决了，东欧悲愤地痛陈“新的铁幕”的升起。20年前铁幕降落时，东欧为“站到历史的正确一边”而欢欣，好像只要换了旗号，一切就自然而然地会好起来。东欧确实也有一段时间发展很快，但这发展大多是靠出卖传统优质资产，像捷克的斯柯达就被贱价卖给大众汽车，现在成为大众的贴牌生产车间。在西欧热钱的涌入下，东欧的经济火爆起来，据说华沙的房地产价值可以和曼哈顿相比。但这个泡沫在经济危机的重压下破灭了，现在东欧指望着西欧解囊相助，但西欧自己的囊也瘪了，自救还来不及。萨科奇要法国汽车救援资金完全用于法国，还要把法国汽车在东欧的生产能力转回法国，以保障法国的工作机会，引起东欧的愤怒。他们也不想想，自己把自己降低为人家的附庸，当主人家有难的时候，你还想主人家自己省吃俭用，来供养附庸？

不知道这次经济危机过后，东欧这些资本主义红卫兵会不会有所反省，重新考虑中国这些年所走的路？或者对中国有所尊重？他们不愿改邪归正也无所谓，各走各的路就是了。不过多一点朋友总是好的。

• 看多中国，看空中国官僚之一
• 执见

我觉得指望东欧做朋友不现实，他们就是做奴才的命。

要钱这个事，不是由东欧的主观意志决定的……越是穷来越是要，按原来那个要法，越是要来越是穷……

东欧还要继续向西欧乞讨要钱的，一百年啊一百年！

一百年后呢？西欧也木钱了，还要个鬼啊。

反省一下自己！

欧美这次大造声势，要中国解囊，中国就是守财奴做到底。再过几十年，中国的相对实力大涨了，东欧要还是这个鸟样，他们就该向中国要钱了，要中国尽“国际主义”义务。

势利的东欧人更加如此。他们自认天生是优秀种族，全是因为万恶的共产制度才落到了落后地步。他们的心理就像一些新入教又不懂宗教真谛的人一样。

目前看波罗的海三国和保加利亚得到救助的可能性最大。乌克兰估计没人管他了，不过其他的国家最后肯定还是会援助一把，毕竟那些钱也都是西欧银行投进去的

就怕第三次也是最后一次的大战发源地还是欧洲。也只有欧洲有资格当这个策源地了。

欧洲已经没有人打得动世界大战了。

第一次看到四猪国的时候差点没把俺乐死,针对BRICs,出了个PIGS.分别是葡萄牙,意大利, 希腊和西班牙.

在加入欧元区之前,上述四国一遇到经济不景气,往往采用主动贬值本币的办法脱困.现在就没那么自由了,加上单位劳动力成本远高于德国和英国,这些国家即将面临着是否退出欧元区的抉择.

这四国退出欧元区已经传得沸沸扬扬了，东欧还在哭着嚷着要进欧元区，最头疼的是德国，都把德国当冤大头了，谁都想来打劫一把。

这个一定要花

看到老广的贴子,想起上个月读到的文章,特摘录如下:

When the euro was introduced about ten years ago, the pessimists didn't give it much chance of reaching its tenth anniversary. The euro, or so the argument went, was doomed from the outset because of the wide spread in economic performance and discipline amongst the member countries. At one end you had, and still have, the highly disciplined, but also slow growing, economies of Germany and the Netherlands. At the other end you find the faster growing but poorly disciplined countries such as Spain and Greece. As icing on the cake, you also had, and still have, countries that lack in both departments, such as Italy, making it difficult for the union to 'gel' – well, according to sceptics.

There is admittedly an embedded weakness in the way the European currency union is structured. In the United States, arguably that largest currency union in the world, fiscal transfers between member states allow for the federal government to adjust for variances in economic performances. There is no such mechanism within the euro zone, which explains why the member states are subjected to a number of rules1. These rules require for everyone to exercise a high level of economic discipline. The problem is that there is little or no such discipline.

The best example is the huge spread in the rise of unit labour costs over the past few years. Unit labour costs measure labour (wage) costs adjusted for changes in productivity. It is probably the best measure that exists in terms of tracking the changes in competitiveness between nations. When the Stability and Growth Pact behind the euro was established, there was no reference made to unit labour costs which, with the benefit of hindsight, was a major mistake. Even Jean-Claude Trichet, the Head of the European Central Bank, who rarely admits mistakes, has publicly stated that if he could design the currency union all over again, he would push for a unit labour cost stability pact.

Back to the sceptics. What they failed to realise was that Europe, together with the rest of the world, was about to enter a period of unprecedented prosperity. The good times would not only gloss over the deeper problems, but the euro would actually go from strength to strength to a point where it now threatens to unseat the US dollar as the premier reserve currency of the world. It is therefore perhaps a mystery to some of you, why one should question the longer term viability of the euro. That is nevertheless what I intend to do.

The problem, as I have already alluded to, is poor discipline amongst several of the member states. Ever heard of the four PIGS? This less than flattering acronym stands for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, four members of the euro zone which are all in much deeper trouble than they are prepared to admit. They are often considered the 'antidote' to the BRIC countries, the fast growing emerging market economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Let's take a closer look at the unit labour cost index for various countries (see table 1).

Table 1: 2007 Unit Labour Cost Index (2000=100)

Notes: *2006. PIGS countries in bold. Source: http://stats.oecd.org/

Since the introduction of the euro, the PIGS have failed miserably to keep up with Germany on this measure of competitiveness. So has Ireland by the way, hence its current predicament. On the other hand, Brazil (the only BRIC country which the OECD reports unit labour costs on) scores very well on this account, a fact which is not going to make life any easier for the PIGS.

EU countries outside the euro zone, such as the UK, have also lost out to Germany in recent years, but the UK has been able to play a card which is not at the disposal of the euro zone members. That card is called devaluation. Whether by design or otherwise, the UK has received a massive boost to its competitiveness in recent months as a result of the sharp fall in the value of the pound. Italy used to play this card repeatedly back in the days of the Lira. So did countries like Denmark in the dark days of the 1970s.

Back in those days there was less economic integration and recessions were rarely global. Devaluations could therefore be used to stimulate exports. The situation today is fundamentally different. The global nature of the current crisis makes it far more difficult for any country to grow its way out through higher exports. The UK will offer a great case study to test whether devaluations are still a powerful tool.

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