主题：台湾看来真要被和平演变了呵呵 -- letitbe

转一篇最新一期经济学家上的文章。一句话摘要：China Mobile作为CCP国企的杰出代表即将入股台湾一电话通讯运营商Far EasTone Telecommunications，合同尚未签订，台湾股市已狂长15％。

这下大家清楚台湾人民的抵抗决心了吧哈哈～

Chinese investment in Taiwan

Strait deals

May 7th 2009 | HONG KONG

From The Economist print edition

Acrimony between China and Taiwan gives way to business deals

TWO years ago a Chinese telecoms official was more likely to be able to walk on water from Beijing to Taipei than to make an investment when he arrived in Taiwan. Things have changed. On April 29th China Mobile said that it would buy 12% of Far EasTone Telecommunications, a big Taiwanese mobile operator.

The size of the deal, a mere $526m, does not begin to convey its implications. In the aftermath of the announcement Taiwan’s stockmarket shot up more than 15%, or about $60 billion in value, undeterred by rumblings from Taiwan’s regulators that the deal violated a law preventing Chinese investment in Taiwanese telecoms firms. Given the security concerns associated with access to telecoms networks, it is a sensitive area for foreign investment—and you cannot get much more sensitive than China Mobile, which is directly controlled by a government that does not even accept Taiwan’s territorial independence. Understandably, therefore, the deal will need government approval. Yet there is widespread confidence that it will be forthcoming, since the two companies would not otherwise have risked an announcement.

In retrospect, business ties between China and Taiwan began to shift in March 2008 with the election of a new Taiwanese government. Regular flights between the two countries resumed, after more than half a century, when the new government took office in May; the number of flights increased from 36 a week to more than 100 a week in December, and again to 270 from April 26th. Taiwan is pushing for the number to double yet again.

Along with closer ties in aviation and telecoms, several other potential agreements have come from the thaw between Taipei and Beijing, starting with direct discussions between Chinese and Taiwanese financial regulators on greater co-operation. Taiwan will also open up to direct Chinese investment in services, manufacturing, property and rail projects.

Taiwan has invested in China for decades, and by some reckoning more than 5% of Taiwan’s population now lives on the mainland in order to do business there. But Taiwan itself has long felt that it was too small, and China too threatening, to allow reciprocal ownership. China tolerated this asymmetry because the Taiwanese provided capital and expertise that it lacked. In recent years, however, Taiwan’s once-boisterous growth has ground to a halt, largely because investment and business has moved to the mainland. That has prompted growing calls within Taiwan for closer co-operation with China.

The most immediate benefit to Taiwan of opening itself up is financial. But some Taiwanese companies may also gain valuable access to the Chinese market. Its tie-up with China Mobile, for example, may give Far EasTone the right to allow its subscribers to roam onto China Mobile’s network on the mainland, a potentially lucrative market given all that Taiwanese business travel. CLSA, a regional broker, reckons that the removal of barriers could prompt Chinese investment in many Taiwanese companies eager to do business on the mainland, including airlines, banks, shipping and technology firms.

This last group is likely to be the most controversial. Many of the Taiwanese technology companies that set up in China were attracted by its cheap labour, and to get through the door they were prepared to shift some expertise to the mainland. But the most advanced work in critical areas, notably semiconductors, remained in Taiwan. Such technology is the most appealing to the Chinese government, and to Chinese companies looking to invest in Taiwan. It is also what Taiwan will be most reluctant to give up.

The Taiwanese government is expected soon to release rules on what can be purchased and what must be protected. The telecoms investment suggests that the government will lean toward openness, but there will be limits. Controls will not be lifted altogether in the absence of a comprehensive trade agreement—and political concessions over sovereignty that neither side, for now, shows any sign of being ready to countenance.

和平演变, 道路是曲折的..